{"id":45747,"date":"2019-08-04T15:58:34","date_gmt":"2019-08-04T14:58:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/?p=45747"},"modified":"2019-08-04T15:58:34","modified_gmt":"2019-08-04T14:58:34","slug":"where-did-the-lib-dem-votes-in-brecon-and-radnorshire-come-from","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2019\/08\/04\/where-did-the-lib-dem-votes-in-brecon-and-radnorshire-come-from\/","title":{"rendered":"Where did the Lib Dem votes in Brecon and Radnorshire come from?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A commentator who has, over a long period, used the name Dungroanin, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2019\/08\/02\/lessons-from-brecon-and-radnorshire\/#comment-832092\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">just posted this on the blog<\/a>\u00a0and I thought it worth sharing, just as he or she wrote it:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Been doing a bit of assessment of the election as the cricket is not as enthralling!<\/p>\n<p>Looking at the last 3 elections in in 4 years in the Brecon seat is a lot more informative than the pollsters.<\/p>\n<p>Turnout \u2014 2015,17,19 respectively<br \/>\n40k(73.8%), 41.3k(76.9%), 31.8k(60%) -all notable for being high, well done these voters.<\/p>\n<p>Comparing the various years and looking at absolute numbers (some rounding)<\/p>\n<p>1. 2017 to 2015<br \/>\n1.3 k increased turnout.<\/p>\n<p>Tories gained 3.5k<br \/>\nLibdems gained 0.7k<br \/>\nLab gained 1.4k<br \/>\n= 5.6k<br \/>\nPlaid lost 0.4k<br \/>\nUkip lost 2.8k<br \/>\nGreens lost 1.2k<br \/>\n= 4.4k<\/p>\n<p>It would seem fair to conclude:<br \/>\nthat most ukip went back to their traditional parties;<br \/>\nSome plaid and green went libdem.<br \/>\nNew voters mostly likely went to Tories and Labour in that order.<\/p>\n<p>2. 2019 compared to 2015<br \/>\n8k decreased turnout<\/p>\n<p>Tories lost 4.1k<br \/>\nLab lost 4.2k<br \/>\nUkip lost 3k<br \/>\nPlaid lost 1.7k<br \/>\nGreens lost 1.2k<br \/>\n= 14.2k<\/p>\n<p>Lib dems gained 2.5k<br \/>\nBrexit gained 3.3k<br \/>\n= 5.8k<\/p>\n<p>It would be fair to say all ukip went to Brexit;<\/p>\n<p>It would also seem that most of the no-shows are Labour and Tory and some greens and plaid;<\/p>\n<p>Some labour, tory and most plaid and green made up the Libdem gain.<\/p>\n<p>3. 2019 compared to 2017<br \/>\n10k reduced turnout.<\/p>\n<p>Cons down 8k<br \/>\nLab down 5.6k<br \/>\nPlaid down 1.3k<br \/>\nUkip down 0.25k<br \/>\n= 15.15k<br \/>\nBrexit gained 3.3k<br \/>\nLibdem gained 1.8k<br \/>\n= 5.2k<\/p>\n<p>So the 2015 kippers who went elsewhere in 2017 (back to their traditional parties) this time went to Brexit.<\/p>\n<p>Most labour and many Tories didn\u2019t turnout.<\/p>\n<p>Where did that extra 1800 vote for libdems come from?<br \/>\nMostly from plaid and greens obviously, from their electoral pact.<br \/>\nSo only a few hundreds from Lab and Tories.<\/p>\n<p>\u2013-<\/p>\n<p>In my opinion a general election now would most likely follow the same pattern as scenario 1.<\/p>\n<p>Most Brexit will revert to their traditional vote.<\/p>\n<p>Most stay at homes will revert to their traditional vote.<\/p>\n<p>Libdems will only benefit from the local representatives popularity.<\/p>\n<p>The outcome will be determined by turnout. A high turnout will favour Labour. A lower one will favour Tories.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A commentator who has, over a long period, used the name Dungroanin, just posted this on the blog\u00a0and I thought it worth sharing, just as<br \/><a class=\"moretag\" href=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2019\/08\/04\/where-did-the-lib-dem-votes-in-brecon-and-radnorshire-come-from\/\"><em> Read the full article&#8230;<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45747","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45747","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45747"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45747\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45747"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45747"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45747"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}