Much as I\u2019d like to find a silver lining in Labour\u2019s decision on Brexit yesterday I can\u2019t. If the policy is to a) get a deal if prefers (which won\u2019t happen) or b) a general election (which it cannot decide upon) or, only then, c) a People\u2019s Vote then Labour has knowingly become a Brexit party.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s be clear: May\u2019s Deal is dead.<\/p>\n
So is a compromise deal: there are ample Tories who will vote against it, as will many in Labour.<\/p>\n
That then will leave the Tories wasting months looking for a new leader.<\/p>\n
If that does not waste all the time until 31 October then votes of no confidence in the new Prime Minister will instead, with the DUP probably withholding their support for the Tories this time.<\/p>\n
So a general election will happen, but because others chose it. And what yesterday\u2019s vote makes very clear is that in such an election Labour will be a Brexit party. That\u2019s clearly what Corbyn wants.<\/p>\n
In that case the idea that Labour will ever allow rally allow the option of a People\u2019s Vote is not on their proverbial, and deeply annoying, table. It\u2019s a pretence that it is.<\/p>\n
This has three consequences. First, for a lot of people it is going to make voting Labour very hard indeed.<\/p>\n
Second, it is likely going to deliver hard Brexit. I do not think anything is guaranteed on this issue, but this now looks 90% likely because all likely major party leaders actively want it: all they are seeking is to avoid the blame for it.<\/p>\n
Third, this means that the political disruption continues. Scotland will depart, because the major English parties have nothing to say in response to the SNP there. Northern Ireland will move that way too. And in the chaos of post-hard-Brexit England and Wales there will have to be political realignments, in which the \u2018keep it as it was and hand the power back to the markets, small c conservative\u2019 Change Party is not a viable option.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n When the history of this era comes to be written Labour\u2019s decision to abandon Remain voters yesterday, when it could have provided itself with a solid platform of support and Remainers in England and Wales with a short-term viable political choice, will, I think, be seen as pivotal in the collapse of both Labour and Tory parties and politics as we have known it.<\/p>\n That collapse is what I expect now. And it\u2019s because neither Labour or Tory leaderships have a clue about what they want that can also in any way appeal to a party, let alone the electorate. The old politics of the twentieth century is dead. Now we await the new.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"