{"id":43892,"date":"2018-12-31T09:38:11","date_gmt":"2018-12-31T09:38:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/?p=43892"},"modified":"2018-12-31T09:38:21","modified_gmt":"2018-12-31T09:38:21","slug":"2019-is-going-to-be-horrid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2018\/12\/31\/2019-is-going-to-be-horrid\/","title":{"rendered":"2019 is going to be horrid"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I am by nature an optimist. I temper this by never hoping for too much. But I undoubtedly live in hope. Until it comes to 2019, that is.<\/p>\n<p>I promise, I tried to be upbeat when thinking about the coming year. There is a section for being so in the mind-map that follows. But I overwhelmingly failed. Of course, all predictions are wrong and my sense of foreboding may be misplaced. But I doubt it. 2019 is going to be horrid. Let\u2019s not pretend otherwise. This is why (click on the mind-map to open it in a separate page and then click it again for a large version):<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2018\/12\/31\/2019-is-going-to-be-horrid\/screen-shot-2018-12-31-at-09-34-49\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-43894\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-43894\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Screen-Shot-2018-12-31-at-09.34.49-379x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"379\" height=\"1024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Screen-Shot-2018-12-31-at-09.34.49-379x1024.png 379w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Screen-Shot-2018-12-31-at-09.34.49-111x300.png 111w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Screen-Shot-2018-12-31-at-09.34.49-768x2077.png 768w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Screen-Shot-2018-12-31-at-09.34.49-148x400.png 148w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Screen-Shot-2018-12-31-at-09.34.49.png 860w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 379px) 100vw, 379px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>For those who want the laid out version, this is it, but it\u2019s not as easy to read (in my opinion).<\/p>\n<h3>2019 risks<\/h3>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Political<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Brexit\n<ul>\n<li>The collapse of effective government in the UK<\/li>\n<li>The risk of unrest given almost any outcome<\/li>\n<li>The possibility of economic turmoil, created by choice, which is unprecedented<\/li>\n<li>The absence of effective political leadership<\/li>\n<li>The risk of the U.K. breaking up into two and maybe three parts<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Trump\n<ul>\n<li>The choice not to govern in the USA and indifference to the rule of law<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Populism\n<ul>\n<li>The act of looking to extremes for solutions<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>EU\n<ul>\n<li>German drift<\/li>\n<li>French floundering<\/li>\n<li>Elections and growing extremes<\/li>\n<li>Hungary and the fall of democracy<\/li>\n<li>Italy and the rise of the right<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Migration\n<ul>\n<li>The continuing global stress<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>China\n<ul>\n<li>The threat of the alternative<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Russia\n<ul>\n<li>Putin\u2019s continued passive aggressiveness<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>The Middle East\n<ul>\n<li>Israeli elections<\/li>\n<li>Stresses in Iraq and Iran<\/li>\n<li>The ongoing risk in Syria<\/li>\n<li>Spillover risk in Turkey\n<ul>\n<li>The continuing risk of Erdogan<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>The unreliability of Saudi Arabia<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol start=\"2\">\n<li><strong>Economic<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Brexit\n<ul>\n<li>The economic unpredictability of the world\u2019s sixth largest economy schooling economic melt-down<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>The USA\n<ul>\n<li>The threat from rising interest rates<\/li>\n<li>Inverted yield curve - short term rates being higher than long term dates suggests recession is likely<\/li>\n<li>The likelihood of trade war fuelling recession, populism and political stress simultaneously<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>The EU\n<ul>\n<li>Germany\u2019s continued failure to take the lead in redistribution<\/li>\n<li>French floundering<\/li>\n<li>Italian stress<\/li>\n<li>The risk of QE withdrawal<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Oil\n<ul>\n<li>Unpredictability of pricing<\/li>\n<li>Inability to predict supply<\/li>\n<li>A roller coaster is likely<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Stock markets\n<ul>\n<li>The withdrawal of QE is meant to reduce asset prices. This may well happen.<\/li>\n<li>Uncertainty created by US interest rate policy, in particular<\/li>\n<li>Stock market crashes do not create recessions but the change moods. Volatility is already high. A crash is possible.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Property markets\n<ul>\n<li>House prices are falling, and not just in the U.K. This is a trend resulting from the ending of QE. This does not need to create recession in itself. But it does not help the mood.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Developing markets\n<ul>\n<li>US interest rates rising causing major spillover risks and the chance of default in many countries where debt is denominated in dollars<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Debt\n<ul>\n<li>There is just too much of it<\/li>\n<li>Major threat in countries like Italy and China but a potential threat almost anywhere, especially if asset prices fall as QE works out of the system and political uncertainty rises<\/li>\n<li>The return of the zombie bank is all too possible<\/li>\n<li>There is evidence that debt concerns are now hitting consumer spending and that retailing is being hit hard as a result. This could be enough to create recession by itself.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Climate change\n<ul>\n<li>Nothing is happening<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Philosophy\n<ul>\n<li>Those in charge still think they can find solutions in neoliberalism<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Inequality\n<ul>\n<li>Will grow. Neoliberalism ensures it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Wages\n<ul>\n<li>Will remain broadly stagnant. Neoliberalism ensures it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Insecurity\n<ul>\n<li>Will grow. Neoliberalism ensures it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol start=\"3\">\n<li><strong>The upsides<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Awareness of the need to tackle climate change\n<ul>\n<li>The Green New Deal<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Awareness of the dangers of inequality\n<ul>\n<li>All the major economic international organisations now see the threat<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>There are attempts at new economic thinking<\/li>\n<li>Some measures to tackle tax abuse are working<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I am by nature an optimist. I temper this by never hoping for too much. But I undoubtedly live in hope. Until it comes to<br \/><a class=\"moretag\" href=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2018\/12\/31\/2019-is-going-to-be-horrid\/\"><em> Read the full article&#8230;<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,106],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43892","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43892","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43892"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43892\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43892"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43892"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43892"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}