{"id":4342,"date":"2009-07-28T10:40:12","date_gmt":"2009-07-28T08:40:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2009\/07\/28\/jersey-i-hate-to-say-it-but-i-told-you-so\/"},"modified":"2009-07-28T17:36:53","modified_gmt":"2009-07-28T15:36:53","slug":"jersey-i-hate-to-say-it-but-i-told-you-so","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2009\/07\/28\/jersey-i-hate-to-say-it-but-i-told-you-so\/","title":{"rendered":"Jersey \u00e2\u20ac\u201c I hate to say it, but I told you so"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry to brag \u2014 but I’ve just read the Jersey Business Plan for 2010<\/a>. And this is where it now forecasts its finance will be over the next few years:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Back in 2007 when Jersey published its business plan for 2008 I said its predictions were ludicrous<\/a>. They claimed the following at that time:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

This is pretty much the red line noted above.<\/p>\n

I said the following was much more likely (the second column headed 2008 should read 2009 \u2014 apologies):<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

So, OK, I forecast the decline would be faster than it has actually been. But I note I was a lot closer, a lot sooner, to the true likely long term picture than the States of Jersey were.<\/p>\n

Respectfully, their forecasts never did make sense \u2014 and I remain quite convinced they will be at the bottom range of their current forecast.<\/p>\n

Tow final thoughts: first they can find only \u00a36 million of cuts in response to this \u2014 about 1% of spending. And apparently this includes such things as cutting baby milk in their maternity unit! I think this a significant indicator of what will happen in the UK \u2014 talk of 15% cuts is ludicrous \u2014 they just aren’t there to be had. Second, they are saying the obvious response is new taxes and charges. Sorry to brag again, but I told them that in face to face discussion with Senator Le Sueur \u2014 their first minister \u2014 way back in 2005.<\/p>\n

They didn’t listen then. I don’t suppose they will now. But it might have paid them to do so. they’d be a lot better off if they had.<\/p>\n

As it is, I confidently predict that my other prediction - that Jersey is heading to go bust - remains likely.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry to brag \u2014 but I’ve just read the Jersey Business Plan for 2010. And this is where it now forecasts its finance will be
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