{"id":35920,"date":"2017-01-05T08:13:24","date_gmt":"2017-01-05T08:13:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/?p=35920"},"modified":"2017-01-05T08:13:24","modified_gmt":"2017-01-05T08:13:24","slug":"this-mornings-reasons-for-thinking-2017-may-be-the-year-recession-returns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2017\/01\/05\/this-mornings-reasons-for-thinking-2017-may-be-the-year-recession-returns\/","title":{"rendered":"This morning&#8217;s reasons for thinking 2017 may be the year recession returns"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There is an air of gloom in the papers. I am in the mood for preparing lists. This is my summary of this mornings reasons for an economic downturn in 2017:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Brexit uncertainties may hit many economies and not just the UK<\/li>\n<li>Trump may start trade wars<\/li>\n<li>Rising inflation in Europe may trigger interest rate rises that most Eurozone countries can't afford<\/li>\n<li>US tax cuts are likely to trigger US interest rate rises<\/li>\n<li>Market sentiment may move against the UK government as the deficit rises forcing a UK interest rate rise in the absence of QE<\/li>\n<li>A UK local authority funding crisis may lead to a lack of confidence in long term social care and an increase in saving, reducing current spending as a result<\/li>\n<li>Consumer credit is back to an all time high in the UK - which has usually happened before a crash<\/li>\n<li>UK house prices may go into reverse if interest rate rises lead to an increase in foreclosure<\/li>\n<li>The FTSE 100 and other stock market indices are at all time highs with little underlying logic to that, which has usually happened shortly before a crash<\/li>\n<li>There are clear signs of a UK retail down turn<\/li>\n<li>Car sales are forecast to fall by 5% in the UK in 2017<\/li>\n<li>Italian banks remain on the brink threatening the Eurozone<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And of course, we may weather all that.<\/p>\n<p>Maybe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There is an air of gloom in the papers. I am in the mood for preparing lists. This is my summary of this mornings reasons<br \/><a class=\"moretag\" href=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2017\/01\/05\/this-mornings-reasons-for-thinking-2017-may-be-the-year-recession-returns\/\"><em> Read the full article&#8230;<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35920","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35920"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35920\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35920"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35920"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35920"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}