{"id":32888,"date":"2016-03-24T07:30:29","date_gmt":"2016-03-24T07:30:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/?p=32888"},"modified":"2016-03-24T07:30:29","modified_gmt":"2016-03-24T07:30:29","slug":"people-think-theyre-better-off-and-thats-the-biggest-risk-george-osborne-faces","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2016\/03\/24\/people-think-theyre-better-off-and-thats-the-biggest-risk-george-osborne-faces\/","title":{"rendered":"People think they’re better off, and that’s the biggest risk George Osborne faces"},"content":{"rendered":"

As a blog I have just posted based on new work by Howard Reed for the TUC shows<\/a>, the vast majority of people in the UK face being worse off in the next five years as a result of government policy. And that is before the risks we face based on the global economic situation and the consequences of Brexit. People should be worried.<\/p>\n

The ONS well being survey<\/a>, published yesterday, shows they are not. This table is particularly telling:<\/p>\n

\"Screen<\/a><\/p>\n

You can see why people got angry in 2008: they had thought things were particularly good. In fact, perceptions in 2006 and 2007 were better than at any time since. And it turned out there was a nasty shock in store. It was the shock that annoyed people, I suspect.<\/p>\n

Then note that people think that things have been improving\u00a0progressively since 2011. In that one trend is the explanation for the election result in 2015.<\/p>\n

What changes electoral prospects? Nothing, I suggest, unless expectations prove to be wrong. Then people blame whoever sold the misplaced hope.<\/p>\n

Why then might things go wrong for George Osborne? First because of the massively unfair impact of tax and spending changes over the next five years. I repeat Howard Reed's chart on this<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\"Screen<\/a><\/p>\n

And if the economy really does have as rough a time as looks to be possible, despite recent stock market recoveries and continuing low oil prices then this will be compounded.<\/p>\n

People do not like their expectations being dashed. Their expectations are rising right now. If George Osborne cannot deliver on his promises - which are big and appear to be falling apart at present - then change can happen.<\/p>\n

But if against expectation he does what he says he will do - and most especially if he does what he says and the world economy does not slump - then he might well win the 2020 election.<\/p>\n

Political economy is not quite as simple as meeting people's expectations, but that has a great deal to do with it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As a blog I have just posted based on new work by Howard Reed for the TUC shows, the vast majority of people in the
 Read the full article…<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32888","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32888","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32888"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32888\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32888"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32888"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32888"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}