We have been used to talking about tax avoidance \u00a0as a focus for the UK Tax Justice campaign for a long time now. \u00a0Companies like Google, Amazon and Starbucks have become well-known for the attention that they have received, and around the world these companies are now amongst the best known tax avoiders as a result. \u00a0At the same time it has been UK tax justice campaigners, whether people like me, or in the trade union movement, or in UK NGOs, who have drawn tax abuse through tax havens to the world's attention, and as a result action on both tax avoidance and tax havens is now taking place.<\/p>\n
But, as I've argued in my new report for\u00a0PCS<\/a>,whilst tax avoidance is important, and may cost the UK up to \u00a320 billion a year at present, this figure has fallen, in my estimate, since 2008, and there are signs that it may fall still further. \u00a0 No company wants to be the next Google and have their name \u00a0all over the papers and there is absolutely no individual who wants to be linked, as Jimmy Carr and Gary Barlow have been, to tax avoidance arrangements. \u00a0As a result I have some agreement with tax barrister Jolyon Maugham, who writing in the last day or so, has said:<\/a><\/p>\n On personal tax avoidance, in my opinion, the heavy lifting is done. ... I do not see scope for significant further receipts. On corporate tax avoidance, the ability of any Government to act is a function in large part of matters outside its control. We must await development and implementation of the OECD\u2019s BEPS project.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Whilst the BEPS project is important it does not offer \u00a0unbridled hope, \u00a0but based on my belief that the risk climate regarding tax avoidance has changed, and the fact that falling tax rates have reduced the losses (as I noted in my PCS report<\/a>) and the fact that, as Jolyon has argued, the GAAR (inadequate as it is) plus the ability to recover tax in dispute direct from bank accounts and the right to issue follow on orders to those who have used marketed tax avoidance schemes have all changed the prospects of tax collection success in this area. Whilst the need for vigilance on tax avoidance has not gone, and some whole areas (as outlined in my PCS report<\/a>) have yet to be tackled, there is no doubt that the balance of risks has changed here. Put bluntly, campaigning has worked and legislation has followed in its wake. That's a cause for some celebration, but no back pedalling.<\/p>\n On tax evasion however the situation is very different. I estimate the loss to evasion to be in excess of \u00a380 billion a year. HMRC think it only just over \u00a320 billion. We are polls apart. Jolyon Maugham, without endorsing my data, says<\/a>:<\/p>\n The battleground, now, is moving to evasion.... Tackling evasion is inevitably manpower heavy and I cannot see how HMRC\u2019s capacity to close the tax gap in that field can have survived the significant cuts in HMRC staffing levels.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n