{"id":25786,"date":"2014-08-21T10:20:49","date_gmt":"2014-08-21T09:20:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/?p=25786"},"modified":"2014-08-21T10:20:49","modified_gmt":"2014-08-21T09:20:49","slug":"tax-receipts-suggest-osborne-will-borrow-13-9-billion-more-than-forecast-and-more-than-last-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2014\/08\/21\/tax-receipts-suggest-osborne-will-borrow-13-9-billion-more-than-forecast-and-more-than-last-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Tax receipts suggest Osborne will borrow \u00c2\u00a313.9 billion more than forecast – and more than last year"},"content":{"rendered":"

The government has, within the last hour, published its statistics on the total tax take for July<\/a> 2014. I have done a little number crunching.<\/p>\n

Taking the first four months of the year take take from 2008-09 to 2014-15 has been as follows:<\/p>\n

\"Screen<\/a><\/p>\n

You would think George Osborne should be relieved; there is an upward trend.<\/p>\n

That would be a deeply mistaken conclusion. Taking this data as a proportion of the total HMRC tax receipts for each year (using the 2014\/15 OBR forecast here<\/a>, table 2.8) the data looks like this:<\/p>\n

\"Screen<\/a><\/p>\n

On average from 2008-09 to 2013-14 33.7% of receipts were made from April to July. This year just 31% have been: a shortfall of 2.7%.<\/p>\n

Total forecast HMRC receipts are \u00a3513,600, which I have always considered optimistic. The July shortfall suggests an undershoot of \u00a313.9 billion.<\/p>\n

Assuming all other forecasts remain as stated this would increase forecast borrowing this year from \u00a383.9 billion to \u00a397.8 billion - more than last year's \u00a395.7 billion.<\/p>\n

George has a very great deal to be worried about.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The government has, within the last hour, published its statistics on the total tax take for July 2014. I have done a little number crunching.
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