I have been watching politics for fifty years now. In that case I should have learned that there is nothing to be learned from a LibDem by-election victory. Except for the fact that there usually is something to be learned from a LibDem by-election victory.
The Amersham and Chesham result is stunning. It is the 14th biggest swing in by-election history, at 25.1%. A 16,000 Tory majority has become an 8,000 LibDem majority. The Greens got 1,400 votes, and Labour under 700. Maybe that would not be replicated at a general election. Who can say? But what this does feel like is one of those LibDem gains where a new LibDem stronghold (if there is such a thing now) is created.
Of course excuses can be made. There is a strong LibDem local presence in the area. I happen to know the area well enough to know that. And this is a well off commuter area, although they are not exactly uncommon in the south east. HS2 might have been a local issue, but it's hardly new. Candidly, none of the local issues feel very persuasive in explaining this outcome.
What does feel persuasive is the suggestion that this was a very strong protest vote in an area where people thought registering such a vote was well worthwhile because the chance of it being effective was high.
There were compelling reasons for not voting Tory. In this area I strongly suspect Brexit is one. That might well have been a factor in the Tory win in Hartlepool. I think it just as likely that it has had the opposite effect here. This is an intensely Remain area, and the obvious costs of Brexit are now becoming all too apparent, however much disguised by Covid they might be. The Tories are about to find that there is no one-size Brexit policy that fits all. And I rather strongly suspect that they are also about to find that far from being a winning policy - as it was in 2019 when negotiation fatigue gave it an appeal - Brexit is now a divisive one that can only harm their future prospects.
But this was not just a Brexit vote. This is a constituency where a corrupt government is very unlikely to appeal, and where the corruption will have been noticed. Some may sweep such suggestions aside as a cost of doing business. I am not sure that the whole country will. Again, I am going to suggest that this election might send out a very clear message in this regard.
And, unlike Hartlepool, this election was not fought on the back of a wave of Covid euphoria, but has instead taken place in the face of another wave of Covid. The vaccine boost has gone, I suspect. The failure to address India has become apparent. The reality of government incompetence in dealing with Covid has come to the forefront again. And, I suggest, this issue will be back on the agenda to stay for some time as it looks as though the UK is going to fare much worse than Europe, again. So far it looks like European countries managed their borders much better than we did, and all because of the desire for a Brexit trade deal with India. Johnson may pay a heavy price for that.
There is another issue I should mention. There was, in effect, a progressive alliance here. It was not between the parties, although it is readily apparent that Labour simply did not try, and I applaud them for that. The alliance was created by the people of Amersham and Chesham. In a constituency that has only ever returned Tories they decided to collectively reject the Tory offering.
Now I know there are many who will say that the LibDems are not very progressive, and I accept that. They are not. But, UK politics has moved along way. The Tories have moved it to the far right. They have expelled their moderates. Frankly, many who remain in the party seem only vaguely in touch with what might reasonably be termed political sanity. And I very strongly suspect the voters of Amersham and Chesham noticed that. Metroland - which is what these neighbouring towns typify - is reasonable. The Tories are not. They have been punished for that.
What is their to learn? For the LibDems, it is that they need to persuade people in a constituency that they are the opposition.
The same is true for Labour.
To put it another way, alliance working is vital to beating the Tories.
But, so too is being credible. And that is not about being moderate. It looks like the LibDems had a good candidate here. Ed Davey was not the issue; I suspect she was. That may not translate for Labour. There remain questions marks about whether Starmer is credible.
What is certain is that Brexit and Covid are back in play. And both are bad news for the Tories at present. Brexit is, without doubt, going to remain that way. There is no credible way for them to present this as a success now: it is not.
I am not suggesting the tide is turning. Hartlepool is fresh in the memory. There is another by-election to come that could still be bad news for Labour. But what is certain is that there is no one message for the Right that is universally appealing. And that is good news.
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Ian Bell wrote an excellent post just the other day about “the tipping point”.
https://peterabell.scot/2021/06/17/tipping-and-toppling/.
Fingers firmly crossed that this result was just that tipping point.
I also note that the Lib Dem candidate was available at 4/1 by the big bookmakers right up until the polls closed.
It would have been a double bonus if some of the wise people of Amersham and Chesham took advantage lol.
A very interesting reflection – thank you.
So, it looks as though a traditional Tory area seems to have given a sour verdict on a Tory Government?
No wonder the Tories are keen on building a ‘red wall’. But it also proves again their true neo-liberal credentials in the ignorance they wish to use and abuse up North.
Plainly, the Tories are trying to capitalise on Labour’s failure to meet the needs of their voters.
It really is about time the Labour took a good look at themselves and rediscovered the soul and humanity of Attlee and dropped this neo-lib bullshit they’ve been paying lip service to for far too long.
@ Pilgrim Slight Return
You say: “It really is about time the Labour took a good look at themselves and rediscovered the soul and humanity of Attlee and dropped this neo-lib bullshit they’ve been paying lip service to for far too long.”
All I can say is, hear, hear! SKS is a creaking gate, pursuing the Liz Kendall 2015 Leadership strategy of chasing the soft Tory vote, and ignoring the “no point in voting/ never vote” voters who reacted in droves to a hopeful and transformative Manifesto in 2017, where Labour came close to toppling the Tories.
Vision, hope and a belief that one can make a difference are what inspire voters, and they’ll vote for any Party, or group of Parties, that offer a sober, but hopeful, way back out of the shit creek up which our current politics and politicians have marooned us.
With respect, Labour needs to both “get out the vote” among the people who should be it’s natural supporters, and also to attract the middle ground. Certainly the party needs to present a persuasive vision of the future, but simply rerunning the 2017 election again would I suspect lead to the fifth general election loss in a row.
The former Tory MP Cheryl Gillan may have had considerable personal support in that (as far as I can tell) she was the only opponent of HS2 to have successfully wrung any concessions, e.g. longer tunnels. (The legal challenges by campaign groups failed. The legal petitioning of parliament by various communities failed.) This support needed somewhere to go.
The experience of my local, typically marginal, constituency is that LibDems & Greens take votes from Labour, allowing Tory victories. Local politicians are extremely tribal.
I am old enough to remember the “stunning” Liberal win in Orpington in 19 sixty something – which came to little in the longer term and I fear this may be the same today
Maybe….
And maybe not…
Congrats to the libdems.
In the case of Labour, the following may be of interest:
2010 Labour 2492 votes (5.6%) Brown
2015 Labour 6712 votes (12.7%) Milliband
2017 Labour 11374 votes (20.6%) Corbyn
2019 Labour 7166 votes (12.9%) Corbyn
2021 Labour 622 votes (1.6%) Starmer
So in a seat that was very tory, the best performer was a socialist & the poorest performer a tory-in-labour clothing.
I note that in a council election the Greens took a seat from Labour also on a big swing. Labour, no ideas, no clue, no future.
Before you enthuse too much about the Labour performance in 2017 and their 14,000 votes, the Conservative majority was still 22,000. It was the only time Labour came second here since the constituency was created in 1974. The Liberals then Lib Dems came second at every other general election, save for 2015 when it was UKIP. This by-election is the only time the Conservative share of the vote has dipped below 50%.
I know I’ll probably be accused of being contrarian, but, looking at the a comparison of the 2019 and these results, it’s possible to come up with a slightly different reading of the tea leaves.
The turnout fell by by 17.7K votes and the Tories dropped 17.4K votes. The net loss for Labour plus Greens and Others was just over 7K and the Lib Dem gain was just under 7K.
Now, I’m not suggesting that some previous Tory voters didn’t switch to the Lib Dems or that some Labour voters didn’t sit on their hands. But I think it’s plausible to suggest that much of the drop in turnout was made up of disguntled and discouraged Tory voters and that many of the previous Labour and some of the Green voters switched to the Lib Dems.
This advances an important contention and raises an important question. The contention is that voters in previously safe Tory constituencies who are opposed to the Tories now see Labour as not being as inane and irrelevant as it was under Corbyn, but now see it as a total waste of space. The Tories have stolen so many of their ‘policy clothes’ that they are naked and have nothing useful to say.
The question is, that when it comes to the next general election and a government is being elected, will these currently disgruntled and discouraged Tory voters return to the fold? If the Tories respond appropriately to the fact that many sat on their hands for this by-election with some swtiching to the Lib Dems it’s very likely many will return.
And the final, and, perhaps, most important point is that with Labour likely to be the main opposition to the Tories in their former ‘red wall’ seats and the Lib Dems being the main opposition to the Tories in these ‘blue wall’ seats it should, in theory, be possible to form some sort of progressive alliance. But the vacuity of, and internal conflict within, Labour, the opportunism and ineptitude of the Lib Dems and the tribalism of both probably mean that the Tories will win again – particulalry with re-drawn constituencies.
All good comments
From those numbers, perhaps:
The anti-HS2/Gillan personal lobby didn’t vote, since Labour & LibDem are pro-HS2. While Labour voters switched to LibDems as tactical vote, Labour being typically third.
I guarantee one thing, Johnson’s plans for new housing will be sacrificed here. The LibDem is simply keeping this seat warm.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/18/senior-tories-warn-boris-johnson-blue-wall-is-at-risk-after-byelection-defeat
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tories-planning-byelection-chesham-amersham_uk_60ccbfd9e4b0e08c64ba62e7