Scared people do not spend. This is a fact of economic life. Once somebody is worried about their economic future, they begin to save, and that means Trump is heading the US into a recession.
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This is the transcript:
Scared people do not spend. This is a fact of economic life. It's known throughout the world, and it's glaringly obvious. Once somebody is worried about their economic future, they begin to save because that is the only way they have available to them to guarantee that they might have money to be able to continue to provide for their security and well-being from now until whenever they hope things get better.
That surely should be understood, but it isn't. How do I know that? Because Donald Trump has threatened the well-being, security, and safety of the people of the USA, and he now seems to be surprised that they have reacted. How do I know that they've reacted? Look at this chart is produced by the University of Michigan, and what it shows is consumer confidence in the USA.
That Consumer Confidence index has dropped to 52% at present, which, as you can see from the chart - and it's the black dot line we are looking at - is just about as low as this chart has got.
And even if you go back into history, and this has been running for decades, this is as low as it's ever been recorded in the USA.
Now, 2022 was bad, and that was because of inflation. But we've reached that point again, and the chart is heading down with no obvious indication as to why that should change.
In other words, Trump has undoubtedly destroyed consumer confidence in the USA, and the result is that people are not going to spend in that country.
What's the consequence of that? There will, of course, be a recession. That's what happens when people stop spending.
But things will get worse still because when there's a recession, or when businesses understand that's going to be the case, they also stop spending.
Why?
They see no reason to invest because there is nobody to buy the products that they're going to create as a consequence of that investment. So why bother to make the investment in the first place? It is a very simple and straightforward reason that they literally keep cash in their bank account to ensure their own survival rather than risk it on developing new plant, machinery, products, services, whatever else it might be.
So we're going to see businesses also contracting in the USA. That's going to compound this recession because there's gonna be less employment because investment is what drives employment figures upwards. And when businesses stop investing, employment figures go downwards. That will therefore make the consumer feeling that has been created by Trump only worse, because people will also know that jobs are now at risk, and they will be.
What's more, there is going to be no impact on imports from what Trump has done, but there will be a most dramatic impact on exports.
There's no impact on imports because there are no substitutes for most of the things that the USA imports from its overseas suppliers. For example, the USA has to import rare earths from China.
It has to import 97% of its garments from outside the USA because nobody makes garments in that country anymore.
It has to import a hundred per cent of its cameras from outside the USA because there's not a single company in the USA who now makes cameras, and I could go on.
There are no alternatives to these things. Therefore, imports are not going to decline, at least not in any significant amount, but exports are definitely going to fall.
Why? Because people are already avoiding US products. Not only is the US exporting recession around the world, and it will, it's also exporting anti-US sentiment around the world, fueled absolutely deliberately by Trump, who is not Making America Great Again. He's making America look foolish again. In which case, people are not going to buy its products.
So, if we look at the formula for what defines the gross domestic product or income of a country, it looks like this.
The national income equals C, which stands for consumer spending, plus I, and I stands for investment, plus G, which is government spending, plus X, which is exports, less imports.
Now, of those variables, consumer spending is going fall, and investment is going to fall, and exports are going to fall.
Will government spending fall? Yes, we know that's going to fall as well. Why? Because Elon Musk has been trying to slash the levels of government expenditure by as much as he possibly can, so G is going to fall as well.
And imports aren't probably going to fall by very much.
It is absolutely certain as a consequence that we will end up with a situation where the USA will move into a recession and maybe even into depression, so bad is what Donald Trump is doing.
In that case, he has some choices.
He could completely abandon the tariff strategy.
He could actually begin to reverse everything and start to spend more government money.
He could take action as Joe Biden did to encourage investment in the USA. But that would require him to reverse everything he had to say about Biden and his IRA Act.
He could take action to increase exports, which would mean basically cutting the tariffs that exist on imports in the USA to encourage others to do likewise around the world so that they will buy more US product.
But this would require a total change of strategy from Trump.
Is Trump going to totally change his strategy?
I don't know.
I don't believe he will.
I think he's too stupid to do that.
I don't think he's too unintelligent to do that. I believe that he thinks he's always entitled to what he wants, and he wants this strategy, which is going to deliver disaster, and he's therefore going to pursue it.
But the consequence is clear and unambiguous. The USA is heading for a recession. Nothing else is possible without that change of strategy.
We are in real trouble, not just in the USA, where some of the viewers of this video might be, but around the world, because where the US goes, the rest of us follow. Donald Trump might be the biggest economic disaster the world has ever seen.
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Two corrections:
The most recent monthly print of the Consumer Confidence index was 50.8 from the data tab in the spread sheet.
It’s an index, not a percentage.
The current index at 50.8 is lower than the minimum in May 1980 (51.7). But not quite at low as June 2022 (50.0). I suspect it will get lower before any sign of recovery.
I used some draft data, I think
Apologies
And this is the country that Keir Starmer has hitched our UK wagon to.
It’s like watching the final scenes of Thelma & Louise, but without any of the excitement.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Thelma+%26+Louise&t=fpas&ia=videos&iax=videos&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D-dUYR2apxdA
Obviously there is no precise answer to this question, but what time scales do you foresee? What’s the “inertia” in the system and is it likely that there are “tipping points” that provoke rapid change?
“How did you go bankrupt?”; “Two ways: first gradually, then suddenly”. Ernest Hemingway, I think.
We have an example in the case of Russia but does the USA have the resources?
For any of your contributors who might be going shopping today, here is an updated list of UK brands owned by US companies, and also US brands operating in the UK. It’s not an exclusive list, but it might be helpful:
UK Brands Owned by US Companies
Cadbury, an iconic British chocolate brand, was acquired by Kraft Foods in 2010 and is now part of Mondelēz International, a US-based multinational food and beverage company.
Walkers Crisps is one of Britain’s most famous crisp brands and has been owned by PepsiCo (a US company) since 1989.
Costa Coffee. Although originally a British brand, Costa Coffee was acquired by The Coca-Cola Company in 2019, making it part of a US corporate group.
Boots, a well-known pharmacy and beauty retailer, is part of Walgreens Boots Alliance, which is headquartered in the US.
Laura Ashley . Acquired by Marquee Brands (New York-based) in 2025, Laura Ashley retains its UK team but operates under US ownership. Known for its floral fashion and homeware, the brand continues partnerships with Next, DFS, and John Lewis in the UK.
Ben Sherman. Also owned by Marquee Brands, this iconic British menswear brand (founded in 1963) is part of the same US portfolio as Laura Ashley. Ben Sherman is recognized for its mod-inspired clothing and collaborations with musicians.
Morrisons. The UK supermarket chain was acquired by Clayton, Dubilier & Rice (US private equity firm) in 2021. Morrisons operates over 490 stores and employs 110,000 staff, making it a significant presence on the high street.
Hotel Chocolat. This British luxury chocolatier was purchased by Mars, Inc. (US conglomerate) in 2023. The brand retains its UK stores but now falls under American corporate ownership
Wincanton. A logistics and haulage company founded in 1925, Wincanton was acquired by GXO Logistics (Connecticut-based) in 2025. While not a traditional retail brand, it supports high street supply chains.
HP Sauce. Acquired by Kraft Heinz (Pittsburgh-based) in 2005, this iconic brown sauce, historically linked to British culture, is now under US ownership.
Hartley’s Jam. Owned by Hain Celestial Group (New York-based) since 2012, Hartley’s is a traditional British jam brand popular for its fruit preserves.
Bass Beer. Once a historic British brewery brand, Bass was acquired by Anheuser-Busch InBev (US-Belgian conglomerate) in 2000. It remains a recognizable name in the UK beer market.
Terry’s Chocolate Orange. Now part of Mondelēz International, this seasonal chocolate treat, synonymous with British Christmas traditions, is produced under US ownership
Umbro. The sportswear brand, famous for its football kits, was sold to Iconix Brand Group (New York-based) in 2012. While no longer British-owned, it retains a strong presence in UK sports culture.
Costco UK. is a subsidiary of the US wholesale giant, though it originated in the US rather than the UK.
Currys (electronics retailer) has faced takeover bids from US private equity firms like Elliott Advisors, though it remains independent as of April 2025
US Brands Selling Goods and/or Services in the UK
1. Fast Food and Hospitality:
McDonald’s: A quintessential US brand, McDonald’s operates extensively across the UK.
Starbucks: The American coffeehouse chain is widespread in major UK cities.
KFC and Burger King: Other US-based fast food brands with a significant presence in the UK.
2. Technology and Retail:
Amazon: The US e-commerce giant is a major player in the UK retail market, offering everything from consumer goods to streaming services.
Apple, Microsoft, and Google: These American tech companies sell consumer electronics, software, and digital services widely used in the UK.
3. Food and Beverage:
The Coca-Cola Company and PepsiCo: Both giants market a broad range of beverages and snack foods across the UK.
Taco Bell and other niche brands: While not as pervasive as the above, some US food brands have also found a market in the UK.
4. Financial Services:
American Express: This US-based financial services company provides credit cards and other services to UK customers.
More to the point and this applies to the UK as well, as of course does your post, what happens at the next election when there isnt a viable alternative on offer?
Who knows?
It beggars belief how weak the dominant system is that it can allow one sociopath to tip the world into chaos.
DT has a limited repertoire, dominance is the single goal, violence is the method, it’s worked all his life, so he has no reason to suppose his MO won’t work again – he will keep going, applying violence, division, lies, bullying, coercion, threats etc.
DT can’t back track, as within his Weltanschauung this would mean admitting he was wrong, and that’s just impossible, an annihilation.
Likely the only way to manage DT is to have information that will expose and reduce him, but still be useful to him. Like Melania does.
It could get much worse as this Sunday, Trump would “invoke the Insurrection Act — a move that would allow him to deploy the military domestically and allow Trump to impose martial law.” https://medium.com/@aletheisthenes/on-april-20th-2025-the-united-states-will-cross-the-point-of-no-return-0aecac04cfc3
Also reported in the UK Independent newspaper:
“What is the Insurrection Act of 1807 and will Trump invoke it?” (8 Apr)
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/insurrection-act-of-1807-trump-southern-border-b2729694.html
Also in the Metro:
“Is Donald Trump planning to declare martial law on Hitler’s birthday? ” (8 Apr)
https://metro.co.uk/2025/04/08/donald-trump-planning-declare-martial-law-hitlers-birthday-22869117/
Noted, and read
Excellent analysis for CNN:
“CNN data reporter Harry Enten warned Republicans that President Donald Trump’s approval rating is sinking among independent voters, which could cost them dearly during next year’s midterm elections.
“This right here, my dear friends, is political poison,” he said, pointing to a graphic that shows Trump is now 29 points underwater on the economy among independents.
“If an election were held today, and Donald Trump’s net approval rating on the economy was minus 29 points with independents, I’m not quite sure how Republicans can hold onto the House of Representatives,” he said.”
Trump is losing support from his 2024 voters very fast.
It could not happen to a more deserving loser!!!!
Trump’s overall net approval rating among independents has also cratered, and is now 22 points underwater, according to Enten’s aggregate.
Thanks
My anxiety is that this country is partly owned (land, infrastructure, retail) by US companies, and Starmer has opened the door for them, and seemingly for Trump. Parliament needs to decide, indeed the voters need to, whether we continue with an industrial and military presence of such magnitude.
To be fair, Starmer was not the first PM to open the UK door to US (and global) companies and US (and global) investment.
Magpie Thatcher did
What if all is by (chaotic) design? I wonder who wins financially in recessions. And if enough mayhem is created then there’s the martial law option (subject to military obedience) to stomp on the great unwashed as alluded to above. It’s bigger than Trump. He’s just the frontman playing his TV role. The oligarchy pulling the strings of the kakistocracy operating under a stratocracy. There goes the midterms and etc.