Who do you want to lead the Tory party?

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I have published this video this afternoon. In it, I suggest that the Tories are going to have another summer of meltdown, division and in-fighting as Badenoch and Braverman fight it out to lead the party towards the exit on the right-hand side of the political stage.

There is no audio version of this video as yet.

The transcript is:

Who do you want to lead the Tory party? Kemi Badenoch or Suella Bradman?

Don't tell me you aren't interested, because you are, because you're watching this video.

So let's talk about it.

What is going to happen to the rump of the Tories that are left in the current parliament? 120 of them at the time we're making this video.

That might increase by one or two, but give it a week or so and somebody will be subject to some form of scandal and the numbers will begin to decline.

They are a tiny rump of those who were in the 2019 Parliament elected with Boris Johnson in charge.

Now, who is going to lead them? Most of the obvious candidates have either lost their seats - Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps, and so on - or are elder statesmen, as they would like to think of themselves, like Jeremy Hunt, and so forth.

Or there's Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch.

I don't believe Tom Tugendhat is in the race.

I can't see anybody else who might be. Not seriously.

So, we have the prospect of somebody leading the Tory party who is going to drive it to the seriously far right. Who denies critical race theory and pretends that there isn't inbuilt discrimination against people in this country on the basis of their colour.

Who denies that there are any problems with regard to discrimination against women in this country.

Who denies that there is a problem in discrimination against people on the basis of their wealth, or rather their absence of it.

This is serious because if the Tories go really far-right no one outside the 25 per cent or so who always seem to vote for very far-right parties is going to take them seriously.

They're going to fall behind Reform. They're going to lose any form of moral leadership they ever once had. And then we're going to be left without, one, an effective parliamentary opposition, and two, well, a second party in a two-party system. That could bring about a serious political revolution in the UK.

We don't know how to operate without the Tories.

They've always been one of the two parties in this country, ever since this system was created in 1832, with what was called the Great Reform Act, which brought in modern parliamentary democracy in something like its current form.

So, what is going to happen now?

I don't know. But I suspect, whether it's Badenoch, or whether it's Braverman, the Tories are going to exit, stage right, I think it fair to say, and we're going to have to look for somebody else to fill this gap.

Is it the Liberal Democrats?

Is it Reform?

Could it be the Greens?

Or is it something new altogether?

This is the big, unanswered, and as yet unanswerable, question that this Parliament will pose. But I'm not expecting the Tories to survive this as an effective electoral fighting force. And in that case, we're going to be living in interesting times.

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