We have a Labour government. For the sake of the record, and of setting a benchmark for my expectations, this is what I expect to happen over the next five years.
There will be no significant increase in growth.
There will be a significant increase in wealth, but only for a tiny minority.
Inequality will not be tackled.
Nor will poverty be tackled in any meaningful way.
A million children might still be living in poverty in 2029.
There will be nothing like the planned new number of houses. 
There will be very little progress on global heating, and the prospect of missing all targets will increase significantly.
Palestine will not be recognised.
There will be substantial privatisation within the NHS.
A new form of private funding arrangement for infrastructure will be created, at significant current and future cost.
Constitutional reforms will be decidedly limited.
The House of Lords will remain.
Scotland and Wales will be alienated.
16 and 17-year-old might be granted the vote, but the practical impediments to them voting will continue.
The right to protest and the protection of the freedom of speech will be further restricted. It will be claimed that society needs protection from those who are pointing out the dangers of climate change.
Trade union rights will not be restored.
The Bank of England will remain independent, with unfettered power to destroy value within the UK economy.
Food bank demand will increase.
Safe means of passage for migrants wishing to come to the UK to seek asylum will not be created.
NHS waiting list will remain above acceptable levels.
There will be employment crises in the NHS, education, the court system, social care, local government and elsewhere as Rachael Reeves demands austerity.
More councils will go bust.
So, too, will universities. And maybe NHS trusts, and schools.
There will still be shit in rivers.
Water companies will remain in private ownership.
The railways will still be managed by private companies.
The future of public libraries will be in doubt.
The future of public parks will also be threatened.
There will be more billionaires in the UK.
The average overall tax rate will increase, but there will be no obvious benefit from that happening.
The so-called national debt will rise, probably also as a proportion of GDP.
Interest rates will fall (unless external shocks happen), but not by nearly enough.
In 2029 Labour's majority will look to be very vulnerable. No one will be happy with them.
And, of course, I could be wrong. But Labour's honeymoon period will be very short and the romance will disappear soon after. Then, there will just be much to regret.
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Right on every count.
Starmer’s enthusiasm for seeing IDS in office rather than Shaheen, for me, gives clear indication of the direction of his government. It seems he’d rather grant further power to monsters than replace them with actual left-wingers.
Depressed by the comments – somewhat but not surprised, I believe you have hit the nail on the head! With this in mind ‘we’ are many and they [Labour] are few. ‘We’ must hold them [Labour] to account from day one; that date being today Friday, 5th July, 2024.
And in Scotland I suspect that the levelling down will begin because “there’s not enough money”.
We could lose the subsidised tertiary education; the 2 child + supplement; the baby boxes; the baby grant (these things that uniquely in the UK help to mitigate child destitution; the bedroom tax; possibly the free travel for young people and over 60’s; free prescriptions etc etc. We made as much use of our ‘pocket money’ as we could to improve society. Our water was not privatised. Blackrock will be slathering at the mouth to get hold of that – especially as fresh water becomes the new liquid gold.
The only consolation is that Labour will be able to blame noone but themselves for the drop in the welfare of the ordinary people of Scotland. If the SNP had managed to retain more seats then Reeves would have squeezed our pocket money till our noses bled and then blamed the SNP for making the changes Labour will now foist on us.
The biggest irony is that Scotland hasn’t voted for a tory government since 1975. Yesterday they did. This is a disaster for Scotland and for Scottish independence.
Much to agree with
The Holyrood budget won’t actually be reduced by a Labour win.
Nor is there power to privatise Scotrail or Scottish Water.
I do not believe there will be actual budget cuts, but yes, the London based Labour leadership are utterly clueless about Scotland, and our problems, let alone having any emotional commitment to our national interests.
Reeves has to find some £36bn fairly quickly to avoid immediate pushback in 2025.
Even she is not so stupid as to try to impose austerity cuts within weeks of the GE result.
Scotland has not voted for a Tory WM government since 1957, so no change there, but annoyingly we still have at least one Tory left and they’re still counting in two seats in Dumfries.
In Wales the Tories have been wiped out completely with two Tory seats going Plaid, rather than Labour.
We can surely all rejoice at DRoss losing his seat ….. and the wonderful irony of that being to the SNP, his nemesis.. Dunno the Gaelic for schadenfreude.
FPTP seriously over-represented SNP support in the past so that’s the game they are playing.
The SNP have much to blame themselves for. Many of these are self inflicted wounds.
Their successes have been far too patchy.
Internal party mismagement and failure to build the case for Indy since 2014 have been two of their biggest cockups, but the quality of SNP ministers in Holyrood is not especially high, and they dumped on their Green partners as soon as they could to satisfy the Tartan Tory wing of the SNP.
On 5th July 2024 there are still 50% ish+ of Scots in favour of Indy but that support has now well and truly detached from SNP support.
Most 2024 SLab voters supported Indy in 2019, yet that support has not dropped off the same cliff as SNP support.
That means the Indy campaign has to become .. well.. independent itself, and imo rooted in civil society, rather than tied to the vagaries of party politics under FPTP.
Personally, I’d be much happier working for a civil Indy campaign.
The London based newspaper headlines that Scottish Indy has suffered are wrong. It is actually the SLabs who need to realise that 40%+ of their vote has come from Indy supporters.
Even if that belief has become secondary to the urgency of cost of living and public service issues, they have not changed their minds on our independence.
FPTP is a dreadful system, and anyone with any commitment to even UK style representative democracy has to support some kind of PR.
In 2024 Starmer is almost 500,000 votes short of that which Corbyn achieved in 2019 for Labour.
Turnout is 59.8%, so hardly enthusiastic for Labour, and the Tories have dropped 7 n million votes
PR is an essential fight for Labour members and core supporters to have with its leadership. Soon .
They could avoid any future Tory government at WM again, ever, if they get that right.
Let’s hope Starmer’s ego allows him a change of mind. He has done that often enough.
I agree with everything you’ve just said. I feel so sad re this result for Scotland and can’t get myself out of the sadness.
Can’t disagree with anything, Richard. Anyone thinking this Labour government will make the necessary change of direction will quickly become disillusioned. There is something rotten in the heart of UK politics at the moment, and this election (final figures not available as I write). looks as though it is another example of a massive political majority based on a minority of the poplar vote, never mind the millions who stayed at home.
Until there is genuine plurality in UK politics, especially the electoral system, nothing will change for the better. The duopoly will continue, with bth Labour and Conservatives becoming more similar every day. The only “winners” are the political backers of these two parties, and the usual wealthy elite.
A hard five years ahead for the overwhelming majority.
War and Nazism
We will be the bad guys.
We will lose.
I am dissapointed there were not 99 & they wern’t nailed to a church door.
But otherwise I agree. I will store this & suggest that it is revisited every 6 months or so – the LINO score card as it were.
(& as for the tories – a swing to the right is likely – but that is for another list).
It was your idea, Mike.
I drafted it walking hime last night
I was being ironic (sometimes the only response to what has passed).
It is a good list, & not too detailed.
Well, that is very depressing!
Scotland voted for all of that. Go figure!
Agree to pretty much all of that Richard and further more after the honeymoon period I suspect there won’t be much regret instead there will be a great deal of anger
Whether that manifests as riots or fascism I think it’s too early to say
This election was not a rejection of the Conservatives; it was a rejection of our political system. The turnout is the only real story – 59%. There is the story, if anyone cares. Our Party system depends on a Party representing a constituency of voters. When this applied turnouts were 80%. Over 40% of the electorate reject our politics. They just don’t vote. What we have now is a politics of farce. The elections are game show stunts, and no serious discussion of the issues matters. This Whitehall farce delivers what the decayed police system we have deserves; FPTP over majorities that encourage unassailable, bad government, and consequent over reaction; all to protect a Party Westminster Cartel which is only interested in office, not delivery or transparency or genuine representative democracy.
Much to agree with
Labour, I think received fewer votes than in 2019. Think about what that implies about this supposed triumph. Backward to victory. Onward to farce. These are the real stories. The hoopla about Labour’s great victory is just more game show. The FPTP system is making our politics the prisoner of a Party cartel. It has to stop, but not until there will be nothing left of democracy to save.
I have just made a video on this
2017 – Turnout: 68.8%
2024 – Turnout: 60%
2017 Labour share of vote: 40% (almost 28% of the electorate)
2024 Labour share of vote: 33.7% (20.5% of the electorate)
Since when does this represent any sort of success, let alone Labour’s greatest election result ever?
See the video just out
….and so “The song remains the same” (Led Zeppelin) and “The lunatic is on the grass” (Pink Floyd). I despair.
‘Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.. ‘ Well, it looks like we did get fooled again.
Id be interested in your thoughts on
“There will be a significant increase in wealth, but only for a tiny minority.”
PFI beneficiaries? I am kind of shocked that anyone believes the private sector can do things better, after what we have seen again and again here in Britain. Fingers crossed they aren’t as bad as you (and may of us clearly) fear.
You got it
The tiny number who increase their wealth will have to directly thanks Labour for that
Sadly I think you’re right – Starmer has learned nothing from what’s happening in Australia.
I’m off to the Bylines Festival today to start planning the next battle…
‘Meet the new boss – same as the old boss'(The Who)? Just a change of name!
Our local Tory won – by a Tiny majority – I think it was 92, or somewhere in the 90’s anyway. But … my sister-in-law and her husband now have a Green MP (North Herefordshire). My original turf! Usually rock-solid Tory, except for an old Liberal town (Kington = home) on the western march.
You know, I think I want to go home!
I agree with you Richard. So does Lampedusa.
“If we want everything to stay as it is, everything has to change” Tancredi
Lampedusa – The Leopard
Keep the spirit, thanks for the blog
Our new ‘mission-driven’ Government have not left themselves open to breaking too many promises. Early action on ‘Labour’s First Steps for Change’ may provide an early signal as to their appetite and capacity to remake Britain. https://labour.org.uk/updates/stories/labours-first-steps-for-change/
Do I sense this list being revisited in an annual report?
Your list provides Farage with plenty of ammunition to use when Reform – to use his expression – ‘comes for Labour’.
We are in for a bad time these next few years. Especially if you don’t have a great deal of money.
There is ample money
Overall, for sure there is, but not for individuals on modest salaries and/or benefits.
60% participation in general election – second lowest since 1885 – hardly a ringing endorsement of Starmer:-
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/05/world/europe/uk-election-turnout.html
On Starmer’s track record of policy inconsistency as Labour Party leader the chance of his victory rapidly turning to dust is very high.
Agree with everything you have said. You missed the very high possibility of Starmer taking us into a war situation given the global issues.
It is depressingly low but has been similar in recent times. With 648 declared the BBC gives turnout at 60%. in 2001 the turnout was 59.4% and 61.4% in 2005. In both of those the result was not in doubt.
This time we had photo ID requirements. We have needed them for local elections but turn for those is much lower. Difficult to know how many hadn’t bothered and then found they had none. Probably not a great number -2% ? And how many Conservatives simply abstained? Reform’s four million are nor necessarily all Conservatives.
Labour polled above 40% almost all the campaign but in the day secured 33%. I wonder where the 7% went?
If we had PR I suspect more would be motivated to turn out. I also suspect the fall off is among younger voters. If Starmer can do something for them, it could secure him a second term.
Met Labour candidate outside yesterday – v pleasant young man who came over to SNP people and introduced himself. He went on to talk at length to Lab supporting mother and teenage son. Cdnt help hearing discussion abt further education in which he mentioned the Graduate Endowment (have I that title right ?) which he looked too young to have experienced, but more interestingly related to a devolved issue. Noted this tendency with last Lab MP but also a feature of some media discussion this time round.
What is the Graduate Endowment?
It was a student funding system of early devolution (LibLab days, if I have title right.) Scottish substitute for student loans but forget precise difference.
Thanks
I had entirely forgotten that
Graduate Endowment £2,250 payable on graduation but most students added the money to their loans. Abolished by SNP with support from Lib Dems.
Yes! My son had to pay that when he graduated from Glasgow Art School in the 90s.!
Public fall for the same old lies, new dawn? Don’t think so…