This chart is from the New Statesman:
Let me be honest. I really do not think that is a likely election result. I suspect the Tories will do better than that. And in truth, I hope they do because I think a Labour majority of that size would be very bad news given how weak their policies and leadership are at present.
There is, however, a reason for noting this. That is that if Tory MPs think they are going to lose badly (and I suspect most do) then their appetite for reckless and irresponsible policy from now until the time of their departure from office will increase considerably.
There are already deeply pernicious Bills before parliament, from the Public Order Bill to the plan to repeal EU inspired legislation. Things might, and can, only get worse.
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An animal is at its most aggressive when it is injured or dying. Since 2016 we have become a morally bankrupt country. I agree, Labour will not so much win the next GE, the Tories will lose it. What does this say about our society when we jump from one party to the other hoping things get better?
I’ve said before. I believe the Tories are deliberately trying to fail the next GE. Leave things in a mess. Come back in 2029 blame Labour/Unions/strikers for said mess. People will believe it.
Yesterday there were votes about amendments to the UK infrastructure bank. This was one of the votes.
“This amendment would ensure that the Bank’s objective to support regional and local economic growth includes reducing economic inequalities within and between regions and improving productivity, pay, jobs, and living standards. It would also create a third objective for the Bank to support supply chain resilience and the UK’s industrial strategy.”
Only 269 tories voted against that. If all opposition members had voted, instead of the 205 that did, the amendment would have got through.
It’s not just the tories that have given up.
Agreed
How confident are you that the Government will not postpone a 2024 election indefinitely, citing a national emergency?
Very
Yes, this is my conclusion as well. Do the Tories look like a party that would be content to relinquish power? They are burning bridges, shredding their voter base (except for that minority of authoritarians), and abolishing any pretense of being the party of law and order or business.
I get frustrated by those (EG on Twitter) who have bets on who they wish to see humbled and thrown out at the next election and assume a foregone conclusion.
Then there are the Voter ID, boundary changes, the MSM on-side, manipulation of the polls (YouGov owned by the sacked Chair of the Tories) etc etc, so I wouldn’t count my chickens before they hatch.
The deliberate winding up of the confrontation with the public sector and other workers for fair pay is that maybe they wish to bring on mass disobedience and then enact those draconian powers the Home Sec has passed.
I do wish people would think outside the box and look at the possibilities after all this crowd has broken all conventions/rules and a good few laws without any consequences!
Thanks
Nothing better describes the greed, lying and corruption that dominates the UK’s modern politics than William Hogarth’s set of Election paintings.
That there are now so many similarities between what is supposed to be an enlightened modern Democracy and the rampant crudity of the 18th Century tells you a lot about what has happened to the UK.
Sure, the Tories know they are “going to lose”… but this merely means not being in Government. Each Tory MP has a different calculus – are THEY going to lose.
50 to 100 are in safe seats and act for personal advancement in the party (if they have not yet been a minister) or according to the ideology (if they have been sacked/passed over from being a minister).
50 to a 100 are toast at the next election and probably for ever and already looking for a job. They have nothing to lose and represent danger. They were relatively recently selected as candidates by the same members that thought Liz Truss and Boris Johnson were a good idea. This group will slash and burn for fun.
The chunk in the middle are still very much fighting to win their seats and as long as this group is large enough we will be safe from deliberately vindictive destruction (in my view, current policy is already vindictive/destructive but I am not sure that Tories see it as deliberate… yet).
The problem is that if this group shrinks and the “toast” numbers rise to (say) 200 the “adults in the room” will become so few and far between with no method of discipline and it will get even worse. I do worry about this. Back in the day we might have had Sir Humphrey to delay and obfuscate but where is he now?
I don’t share your fear about a massive Labour majority – maybe this is because I am tribally Labour so don’t see as clearly as you. I share your frustrations about the Labour frontbench failing to embrace a more sensible view on fiscal policy but a Labour landslide would bring in a lot of new (small ‘n’) Labour MPs from what were once “no hope seats”. They will be younger, more radical and will pressure the government perhaps in a similar way to the 2019 intake of Tory MPs (only in a better way, I hope!).
I hope you are right about Labour
I travel in hope.
Me likewise
484 possible seats for a Tory-lite party is thin gruel considering what the people of this country have been put through this last 13 years.
But then again it was the very same people that punished New Labour in 2010 and voted this lot in in a fit of anger without truly understanding who was was responsible and what a bunch of vicious, vengeful and incompetent idiots they were voting in.
And so it goes.
What conclusion would you think reasonable to draw from this, noting that people don’t seem to vote for their own interests or even know what they are? That the majority of the public are basically morons? I don’t know the answer to what seems to be a fundamental voting problem.
This pushes my limits on language
Can we show note respect please?
I do not share this sentiment
So agree with you about the current Labour leadership, but I would have wanted to use a different adjective than ‘weak’, but I realize this is a public blog. So, I would have conformed to convention.
I often hear the argument expressed that the Labour leadership isn’t as bad as we think it is; rather, they thiink Labour have to take these anodyne positions in order to win an election; but, after the election, we will see the real Labour party emerge. I put absolutely no stock in this sort of argument whatsoever. I don’t know what you or some of your astute commenters think about it.
On the subject of lack of faith in politicians in general and fear for the future, this from the excellent Catherine Paver https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQNWE3Nlizk
If I am required to travel on the assumption that, over the next two years the neoliberal Conservatives will not further trash the economy to destruction (whether from vindictiveness or profound ignorance seems to me an over-scholastic distinction of little practical value); it seems to me in these circumstances, it would be better not to travel (!); but then I am not a fan of Labour either (neither tribal nor rational).
Our Constitution is a wreck. We can all see that substantive, coherent democratic, credible government has effectively collapsed; it is held up by the constitutional eccentricity of a huge majority of the improficient, in an election that everyone has forgotten, would rather forget, or wish had never happened; or no longer know remember who or what it was for, or even who is in charge; as in ‘really’ in charge.
Nevetheless we must go on sailing the sinking, mastless ship of state on to the rocks and total disaster, because there is nothing else to be done; all for the best in the best of all possible worlds. It is all going swimmingly, because that is what we are all going to have to do; swim (‘sauve qui peut’, which is the Government plan when the energy subsidy ends in March).
The prognoses here present a grim future for the UK no matter whether it’s Tories or Labour who win the next Westminster election. But if there is no glimmer of hope for the devolved nations in the foreseeable future, how likely is it that the UK will continue to exist in 8 to 10 years’ time? If any of the devolved nations choose to become independent the future for England and any devolved nations that elect to remain will be radically altered. Given the scale of current economic and political chaos in the UK I’d bet that nobody has attempted to visualise, never mind quantify, the economic and political impact on the remaining UK components if the UK starts to break up.
I’ve long held the view that the first seismic event is likely to be in N Ireland because it is the most politically unstable of the all the UK nations. Another election there looks inevitable in order to restore parliamentary rule. There is already a perceptible shift towards the nationalist parties and that is likely to grow, both through demographics and especially now that they electorate understands that the NI Protocol protects them from the damage of Brexit. I suspect a growing swing away from the Unionist parties will gather pace, with re-unification becoming ever more likely.
Scotland won’t be far behind. The Scottish economy has been disproportionately damaged by Brexit and public support for re-joining the EU is running at around 70%. If the UK offers a bleak future, that will translate into increased support for independence. With Scotland a net exporter of energy there is increasing outrage in Scotland that energy costs are higher in Scotland than anywhere else in Europe and there is no doubt that Scotland could exist successfully as an independent state. The next UK election will be used as a de facto vote on independence, so Scotland’s departure may come a lot sooner than most people realise and, as I’ve said here before, it’s hard to imagine us making a bigger mess of running our own affairs than we’ve seen from Westminster over the years.
That leaves Wales. I haven’t seen any data on its economic prospects if it were to become independent, but there is greater interest than ever there about that possibility. A bleak future dominated by Westminster will be viewed as “same old, same old” and push support further towards independence, as will a continuing failure by Westminster to produce credible plans for a realistic devolved governance structure for the UK.
I have sympathy for the English who will be stuck with the outcomes of the current crisis, but the departure of one or more of the other nations will inevitably force them to face up to reality and take democracy and the constitution seriously.
Thanks Ken
I hope your timings are right – poor pessimistic
A country art war with itself – economically and politically (by oppressing three of the four constituent members) cannot prosper, let alone survive
When will the English realise this?
Anyone who thinks Labour will suddenly turn socialist if elected has not been inside and outside of Labour in the last 10 years (I have). The traducing of party democracy in favour of very nasty authoritarianism, the exile of any who challenge the favoured few, the sweeping use of antisemitism smears especially against anti-Zionist Jews, the close identification with Davos/Trilateral/Israel, fixing shortlists by banning/suspending/expelling local activists, some even mayors of their towns….. the list is endless. The Tories are fixing the laws that Starmer’s Labour can use very effectively.
There was a council by-election in Bristol West on Thursday, which the Green Party won from the Libdems. Labour came third, losing 13% of its vote share. The Green Party thinks it can possibly win its second MP here at the next election.
The seat at the moment is Thangam Debbonaire’s, with a big majority. However, labour members did not canvas for the council seat because of the way that Debbonaire backs Starmer all the time, it is said, and because of the way Starmer treats the party.
I’m an ex-labour member as well, so interested in what is happening to the party.
Interesting
Maybe Starmer (and his corporate backers) see his real job as losing the next election to the Tories, whether this be under their Conservative banner or their LibDem banner. One has to wonder, given his behaviour…