Long ago I was told to stop reading what anyone said to see what their opinion was. Knowing the issue that they were meant to be addressing it was pointed out to me that what really mattered when reviewing any statement that they made was what they did not say. The truth, it was suggested to me, is always found to be in the gaps and silences because they reveal what a speaker does not wish us to know. The advice has proved to be useful in a very wide range of situations. I call it a ‘gap analysis'.
It can most definitely be applied to the Tory party leadership candidates. It's not what they are saying that really matters. It is what is not in the statements that they are making that tells us all we need to know about the Conservative Party as it now is.
I have yet to hear one of them talk about Covid, and yet 10% of all hospital beds are now taken by Covid patients. There is a deafening silence on long Covid as well. And as for hospital witing lists, has anything been said?
Has anyone said anything positive about benefits, at all?
Or the cost-of-living? Some mentions arise with regard to tax cuts, but beyond that has any one of them anything to say, or is it that none of the candidates knows anyone who is facing this issue?
And what about the climate crisis? I only hear denials that net-zero should have been adopted as a target.
As for defence, a Tory favourite, what is the actual policy anyone is suggesting? Suggesting spending increases is not a policy. Nor are warm words a strategy. This lot seem devoid of any real thinking.
What do these gaps mean? I think we face four crises at present. They are a developing and most certainly continuing health crisis. Meanwhile the climate is collapsing, and nothing is being done about it. Thirdly, neoliberalism has run out of road, and now answers no known question. It is this failure is leading to others, like a world food crisis. And into all this marches Putin with a form of fascism all too recognisable in the antics of Johnson and Trump, and maybe some of those new seeking the Tory leadership. To each of these issues a genuine leader needs to have an answer. They have to know what their strategy is because policy failures – like the Northern Ireland Protocol issues – cannot be resolved until the strategy (in this case on the failure of neoliberalism) is made clear.
But these things are not being spoken about. The leadership hopefuls people discuss a percentage point or two difference on tax rates. And they argue about the growth that they believe cuts in corporation tax coupled with increased incentives for investment might bring – neither of which indicate that they have any faith in market forces. They also mention fox hunting and the need to oppose equality. They can rival each other on the extent to which they will abuse human rights, and most especially those of refugees. But of the big issues that I mention there is no talk at all. On them these people do not do politics.
Why is that? I could offer many explanations. The best I can offer is that they are all without exception neoliberal to their cores. So, not only do they not recognise that their philosophy is dead, having proved itself unable to address the issues of this world, but they don't even recognise that the remaining issues even exist. They treat them as if they are market externalities of no consequence to them. That is, after all, how neoliberals address all uncomfortable truths they do not wish to address.
The result is we have a leadership election to be prime minister of this country with every single candidate to take on that role refusing to face the reality of the task that they face, preferring to play in the gutter as Johnson did.
We can only hope that one day the electorate do really have the chance to consign them to the dustbin of electoral history. That is possible of course. It happened to the Liberal party by 1918. Could it happen to the Tories given their current trajectory that is taking them so far away from the reality of people's lives? We have to live in hope.
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There is a tern that comes up in old Board of Trade inquiries into ship sinking’s, ‘Failure to Command’ which given that Penny Mourdant is Sub Lieutenant RNR she should recognise but clearly does not
But she is an honorary Captain, which says all you need to know
Oborne /DDN put out a video in which he talked for more than 30 minutes about Johnson and the Tory party:
https://www.patreon.com/posts/full-33min-peter-68946088
It was a demoltion in which he recognised that Johnson’s replacement could well be worse.
Neither did he think that Starmer/Liebore has what it takes.
He thought the only group that could deliver the Uk from the mess it is in are those on the left/far left of the Labour party.
Quite a journey from one-nation tory to socialism – but that is what Oborne +/- said.
I suspect that quite a few more people will become more “enlightened” as the end-of-the-tories saga unforlds.
“Enlightenment is a destructive process. It has nothing to do with becoming better or happier.
Enlightenment is the crumbling away of untruth. It is seeing through the facade of pretence.
It is the complete eradication of everything we imagined to be true.”
Adyashant
Oborne hasn’t quite arrived if he’s tucked his insights behind a paywall. I say this as a Patron supporter – I support startups and youngsters who have no established reputation and are shouldering real risk.
I have often thought that the behind the smokescreen of supposed belief in neo-liberalism and free markets the reality of the Tory party and the City of London is most accurately summed up in the opening lines of the theme tune from “Only Fools and Horses”.
“Where it all comes from is a mystery,
like the changing of the seasons,
Or the tides in the sea,
but here’s the thing that’s driving me berserk,
why do only Fools and Horses work?”
If nothing else, Boris Johnson was the perfect example.
It’s a vain hope I’m afraid Richard. The problem is that the Tories actions aren’t taking place in a vacuum. They’re taking place in the context of a thoroughly neoliberal opposition – unable (for whatever reason) – to offer a coherent analysis. Worse than this they’re intent on justifying every one of the bogus foundations of Tory neoliberalism (see Sir Starmer’s ‘magic money tree’ blatherings yesterday and relentless flag-snogging).
We only have to look to the US to see how this could play out. Over there Hilary Clinton’s disastrous ‘pied-piper’ strategy of ordering her tame hacks to ‘take seriously’ Republican extremists like Trump & Cruz in the 2016 primaries gave them a huge leg-up and led directly to the catastrophe of the Trump victory over there. The reckless assumption was that these far-right loons would be so unpalatable that moderate, sensible Clinton would waltz home – but it failed spectacularly. It turns out that offering virtually nothing positive can lose you elections even if the opposition are atrocious. They are at it again now with the Democrats paying millions of dollars to support the most extreme right-wing Republicans in primaries across the country – it’s terrifying.
Like you I hope this shower of Tory sleaze-merchants will be a step too far, but in the context of the witless, clueless, soulless and corrupt opposition I don’t think they will be (and if you think that last accusation against Sir Starmer’s Labour is extreme then I’ll ask you this: Where’s the Forde Report?).
I am pretty sure that no one has mentioned the NI Protocol either. Whoever ends up being leader is likely to be a hard line Brexiter and will immediately scrap the protocol and make The UK an international pariah not to mention the prospect of renewed violence in NI. Their preferred option is a NI land border because that is how they regard the imposition of sovereignty. The extremists of the Tory Party have a limited time to use their majority to push through their agenda. We know the majority of the candidates are hard line as is I think we can safely assume the voting members of the Party.
NI has been mentioned – but only to say that it must be over-ruled, of course. They all seem to agree on that
One other thing they are all united on: that we Scots must not be allowed to determine our own future. We can have an opinion on our future but we can never enact it. Procrastination will go on forever with the eternal mantra of “now is not the time”. The complete indifference of the Tory and Labour parties to public opinion in both Scotland and N Ireland tells us everything we need to know about their disdain for democracy (as does their continuing resistance to proportional representation in Westminster elections). The people of Ulster and Wales should be aware that the “now is not the time” mantra will apply to them too if they get too ambitious – the power to call/not call a border poll in NI rests with the Westminster Secretary for NI.
Ultimately, denying democratic rights can only result in the demise of the UK as currently constituted and it will have been caused by the anti-democratic behaviour of Westminster’s Unionist parties.
Agreed
This is wishful thinking (a lot of us wish it). If any of these candidates are competent [at winning votes] they’ll have paid for some secret polling with their constituent voters and will know what these guys want to hear. Until they are in the top two this is the party financiers not the party members. The financiers are neoliberals and will go with whoever seems most capable of holding the line and selling their ideology. Officially the Tory MPs are the voters, but their job is merely to judge the winner of who has signed up the most plutocrats (Johnson won this by miles in 2019) because that’s who the party represents.
Only when it is filtered down to the last two will we start to get information about the psych of the Tory party membership. They’re nuts because they once gave us Ian Duncan Smith. Back to basics, christian values, faithfulness in marriage.
Profound economic ignorance is a strong qualification for the job of leader as it mitigates any risk they might think for themselves and do anything against what they are told to do.
This party’s constituency is the extremely rich and there is no sign this is shrinking or being abandoned. The Labour Party, however, has abandoned the unions which are shrinking, so it is more likely to vanish if not propped up by the electoral system.
That is earnestly to be hoped for. But I fear that the FPTP system, and the rigged antiquated creaking British “constitution” will reward the Tories with another term in the next election.
You diagnoses and explanation are sound in themselves, but they don’t entirely capture the depth our political crisis. This lies in the fact that what goes for the Conservative party very much goes the same for Labour too. Has Starmer or his front bench talked of Covid lately? Not much, if at all. The climate? In Starmer’s 10 Pledges this was going to be at the centre of everything Labour did. Nothing from Starmer since: Ed Miliband, who tries, always sounds very out of step. Any critique of neo-liberalism? To the contrary, Starmer’s constant denigrations of his predecessor are partly about signalling that there will be no break with the neo-liberal consensus. Standing up to fascism? I think all the signals are that the won’t take the threat seriously or do anything about it. There’s been nothing on Rwanda, and nothing the attacks on the right to protest. And of course the centrist hero de nous jour, Macron, has preferred to make alliances with with the far right, rather than the French left, who might actually look to address some of the concerns you raise.
We are in a very sorry place.
The glorious future of the Tory Party is assured: the greatest minds, the intellectual powerhouse of the Tory Party, the Conservative’s Brains Trust, will ensure that only a person of the highest calibre will replace Johnson as Prime Minister: – Christopher Hope has tweeted”The European Research Group of Tory MPs is meeting each Conservative candidate individually one-on-one to work out who to support. Each will be grilled by Mark Francois, Sir Bill Cash and Sir Iain Duncan Smith on getting the most out of Brexit”.
In an error of judgement I have been listening to various radio shows/news coverage of this latest exercise in polishing turds and the dismissal of Boris. One theme, from a disturbing number of people, is the belief that Boris had been doing a good job. Incredulity abounds. Further reading/research reveals that these views are based on one thing only. Brexit. As often as not the opinions coming out of areas hardest hit by Brexit. If your hand is burning remove it from the fire. Sadly not.
The only Tory I would have thought of as credible at the moment is Tobias Ellwood and that is saying something.
The current field just fills me with revulsion – mostly all from Johnson’s casting couch – a group ranging from swivel eyed loons to numpties.
The things is the Tories are minted – no matter what who gets the job, there will be plenty of cash to follow. That remains their salvation and our problem.
Definitely saying something….