There is a rule in our house that phones do not come to the table. Three of us ate together last evening, all pretty avid absorbers of the news agenda. By the time the meal was over two Cabinet ministers had resigned.
Later in the evening I tweeted:
This morning there is only the Solicitor General to add to the Chancellor and Health Secretary, plus a few almost unknown PPSs and trade envoys. I suspect the story has not finished as yet though.
What to think? In policy terms I see no reason to draw conclusions. Sunak implied in his resignation later that it was because of differences of economic opinion that he quit. His desire for a small state run for the benefit of bankers was clearly something Johnson could not agree with. But frankly, that is largely irrelevant except to show that the Tory coalition is collapsing. There is no policy now, barring Johnson's survival.
In any case, I do not expect the new ministers to be in office for long. For once Andrew Bridgen MP was one of the few reliable Tory sources last night. To be polite, he is off the bonkers scale, but was seething when interviewed. His suggestion was that he and others would take control of the 1922 committee now. Rumour has it that maybe 180 letters demanding another poll on Johnson's future are already in. If Bridgen and his allies take control of that Committee this week that vote will happen, and very soon. Johnson will then lose the Tory leadership.
But, so what? Will he go then? I doubt it. Convention says he should acknowledge a caretaker role at that moment but Johnson does not do convention. Someone on television last night suggested it might take the SAS to get him out of Downing Street. I hope not. But unless more of his ministers went I cannot see him leaving. Only they can now really show he cannot command the Commons.
It's either that or a vote of no confidence in the Commons worded so carefully that Tory MPs could vote for it but leave the path open for another Tory Prime Minister. And why would Labour cooperate with that? I think it unlikely.
So we struggle on. We are a wreck of a country. We have a wreckage of a government. Our democracy feels as though it is wrecked. The Tories are clinging to the wreckage, and I am sure they think they are going down with it.
But there is no Labour lifeboat. I am not convinced they even know how to put it to sea, let alone navigate their way through what might be left from the disaster.
Enough of metaphors. What we must appreciate is that this is unprecedented. It was also inevitable. In the era when selfishness was the only quality that was praised on the right as being of virtue it was inevitable that we would get an egotist in office utterly convinced of their own entitlement, willing to ignore all rules in pursuit of their belief in their own self worth. And so we have.
The aim now must be to restore what is of value. So great is the disaster only cooperation can deliver what is required. Labour is set against it.
I worry greatly this morning. I am not sure where we are headed. And to return to the metaphors, there appear to be rocks all around with no apparent pilot available. This is not a good place to be.
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There have been very few Conservative voices concerned about their Party collapsing into civil war. The Conservative focus is on finding someone to replace Johnson as the central problem. I am not sure that is the real problem. Johnson is not a substantial political thinker, but I think it is underestimated how much the entryism he encouraged will not foment splits that will not easily be resolved between small state ideologues and the less idelogical neoliberals (including the new Red Wall Conservatives), who naively attached themselves to Johnson’s ‘levelling-up’ aganda (they didn’t know it was just a sound-bite with no content).
Conservatives are always too sure the Party is the most successful Party in political history; without looking sufficently closely at its rough, dubious history and the mere contingent accidents that have saved it from paying the price of its own folly – at least until now.
Agreed
I am listening to ordinary Conservative, Johnson supporters attacking sir Roger Gale as a Remainer plotter, and starting to tear the Party apart.
I still think that the modern Conservative Party are rather successful – but not at politics, economics or anything else.
What they are successful at is fund raising from self interested rich people and mobilising that self interest through the use of Parliamentary power on behalf of their sponsors. That’s how they get in.
The Tories are masters of it. And they’ve captured the media too.
So in many ways the Tory Party is very successful. But just not at what actually matters – doing the job they get voted into do – to govern well, justly and fairly.
If Labour is set against voluntary cooperation then the answer is reduce their options down to just one where they are compelled into cooperation with other parties if they sincerely want to remove the Tories from government. The UK has had a two party system for far too long and now would be a good time to break with that anachronism. Supporting one of the smaller parties or even independent candidates should ensure that in the likely event of a hung parliament that the Labour Party are forced into a power share – they need a responsible adult to direct them. This seems the most likely route to the UK adopting PR (not STV – another highly biased voting system) and the potential of a brighter future for the country. Perhaps Johnson will attempt to call an early election and take many of his colleagues down with him. Trying to call the events of the next few weeks in Westminster seems like an all-out crap shoot.
What is plain to me this morning is that Johnson survives because the money and vested interests that put him there want him to survive and sod everyone else basically.
How else could he just get up and get on with it when others would get the message?
No doubt his back seat driver backers will outspend Labour at the next election anyway?
A state that cannot remove an errant leader is a failed one. This is a terrible place to be.
As for Pincher – was the name not a clue?!! He’s certainly lived up to it.
The latest suggestion emerging from Number 10 is that the Zahawi will be more aligned with the prime minister’s desire to cut taxes, which seems extraordinary given the prime minister’s espoused plans for building new hospitals, and “levelling up” (not down), and rebuilding the armed forces, and all the rest.
And Barclay is described as a “massive upgrade” on Javid. What does it say about the prime minister’s judgement in (re)appointing Javid in the first (second) place? In case we forgot, Javid resigned after a few months as chancellor in 2020, and himself replaced Hancock in 2021.
Lies, lies, lies.
A similarities and differences exercise with Trump and Johnson is quite revealing.
Both are populists using media to promote themselves. Their supporters excuse bad behaviour saying things like .’it is priced in, but only he can get done what we want”. In America the Evangelicals would usually castigate any candidate with Trump’s private life, but they say God is using him to promote their agenda -stopping abortion, supporting Israel, etc. Expediency!
Both offer targets to hate-migrants, woke, internationalists etc. Both are supported by billionaire owned media and wrap themselves in the flag.
Both are surrounded by people of lesser talent who continue to support him even when they can see the two are wrong. Many of those around Trump told him the election was fair and he lost, but refuse to condemn him, even when he incites an insurrection. Johnson is still being held up by most of the cabinet, but I suspect it will drain away.
We could add both have impeached or charged with crime-like other populist, nationalist leaders like Netanyahu and Bolsonaro in Brazil
There are differences, of course, but there is an essential similarity which goes beyond the two individuals. Both are supported by dark money and their aims will continue after these two are forced into history.
Democracy through citizenship is the huge opportunity to replace democracy via political parties. The latter are by definition driven to self-service (not to mention the corruption element eg for gongs). A Prime Citizen chairing elected citizens’ cabinets at various levels with serving their fellow citizens as their sole “ideology” can then take on the unique 21st C challenges we have. Party politics is an obsolete vehicle which served a previous century.