As the FT has noted this morning:
UK consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since records began nearly 50 years ago as surging inflation hits households' finances and the wider economy.
The chart is clear:
And the trend is backed up by data from the ONS who note this morning that:
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Retail sales volumes fell by 0.5% in May 2022 following a rise of 0.4% in April 2022 (revised from a rise of 1.4%); sales volumes were 2.6% above their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) February 2020 levels.
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In the three months to May 2022, sales volumes fell by 1.3% when compared with the previous three months; this continues the downward trend since summer 2021.
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The fall in sales volumes over the month was because of food stores, which fell by 1.6%; reduced spending in food stores seems to be linked to the impact of rising food prices and the cost of living.
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Automotive fuel sales volumes rose by 1.1% in May 2022, which may in part be linked to increased hybrid working and a fall in those working exclusively from home.
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Non-food stores sales volumes were unchanged (0.0%) over the month; an increase in clothing sales (2.2%) was offset by a fall in household goods (negative 2.3%), such as furniture stores, and department stores (negative 1.1%).
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The proportion of retail sales online fell to 26.6% in May 2022 from 27.1% in April but remains substantially higher than the 19.7% in February 2020 before the coronavirus pandemic.
The chart is compelling here as well:
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Perhaps you have already addressed this and I know I probably preaching to the converted but we desperately need a new way of framing the meaning of the word recession and the discussion and debate around it. I hope your the man to further that if you haven’t already done so.
The difference of an actual technical economic recession and living in the real word for tens of millions of people in this country (if not the majority) is not unlike your Boris Venn diagram. The mainstream media talk about the “need” for growth (of course itself unsustainble on a finite planet) but rarely, if ever, talk about who actually benefits from it. Its not the working class, the people that do the actual work, thats for sure. If we look at the first definition of the word recession (see below) the word is obviously derived from the word “receding”. If we ask the workers in this country, what is the first, biggest and most important thing they don’t want to see receding? I am sure most would agree its their pay packet at the end of the week/month and it’s purchasing power (especially including the cost of housing – renting/buying ). I’m not up to date with the figures but haven’t we in fact been in a real wages recession, taking in account inflation, since 2008? (I should add that I don’t believe our official inflation statistics and that they are significantly higher in reality, broadly speaking across the board but also as you doubtless know higher for the less wealthy)
Has our GDP per capita flatlined or gone down since 2008, with only net immigration driving the “growth” (yes I guess hard to know the real story as our migration statistics are based on surveys). I would be very interested to know statistically how long over the last few decades when we have been in “growth” or “recession”. I would have to guess it might be a large, at least 95% to 5% split. So why are we being gaslighted to believe that the vast majority of the time all is well with the economy because most of the time we aren’t in recession? Because, this “recession” framing is great way for the mainstream media and the powers that shouldn’t be, to hide the reality that those at the top are stealing the wealth from the working class.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/recession
That has given me a lot to think about
Some links you might find useful, if you haven’t already seen them:
this one is less than a year old and obviously things have got much worse since then….
https://www.newstatesman.com/chart-of-the-day/2021/10/uk-real-wages-will-still-be-lower-in-2026-than-they-were-in-2008
Sky reporting this last month as if its a new problem:
https://news.sky.com/story/more-than-four-in-five-britons-concerned-about-rising-cost-of-living-poll-for-sky-news-suggests-12614622#:~:text=Rising%20bills%20have%20meant%20one,conducted%20exclusively%20for%20Sky%20News
But it isn’t, this from 2018 and the following year mainstream media did its job to destroy Labour and the turkeys voted for Christmas:
https://www.trusselltrust.org/2018/03/19/calls-grow-government-measure-hidden-hunger/
and
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/gmb-government-people-harrogate-nhs-b1006441.html?amp