There are issues arising from last night's confidence vote in Boris Johnson worth considering this morning. A number stand out.
One is to anticipate the immediate aftermath. What we know is that Johnson does not take criticism well. The withdrawal of the Tory whip from key opponents would now seem likely. Hunt, Baker, Norman, May, Harper, Penrose, Davis and Gale might all find themselves outside the party soon, with Johnson relying on the fact that they do not share political philosophies to prevent them forming a new grouping.
The second is to presume that there will also be a cull of ministers seen less than sufficiently supportive. It will be a good day for the sycophants but government will fall into even greater discredit as a result.
Third, the excuses for the imminent by-election losses will be lined up. They will all be the fault of those dropped from office and the party. They will be now be described as those stopping Johnson ‘getting things done' and with them gone it will be claimed that all will now be well.
Fourth, there will be a lurch to the right, because they are the true believers. The Northern Ireland protocol is in trouble in that case. I give it weeks for the death penalty to be back on the agenda. Watch out for abortion too. Where the Republicans go, so too do these Tories. But free access to guns may, even for them, be a step too far.
Fifth, there will be no discussion at all on what needs to actually be done for the country. As Jesse Norman MP has noted, all Johnson's government is about is the day to day, hour by hour survival of Johnson. Nothing else matters. In that case anything that might require real attention, or provoke real change, or which has a planning horizon beyond a fortnight, or is not capable of being described in a three word slogan, will be ignored. Government neglect of duty will just grow.
And in all this none of the reasonable disquiet of people will dissipate, because the economy will shrink, people will face poverty, jobs will be lost, queues for everything will get longer as cuts are made, and as a result anger will rise.
Johnson's acolytes claim the country can now move on. He himself did much the same during an interview in which he had a curious and persistent sniff last night, leading to speculation as to its cause. But the reality is that this moving on will not happen. Political, economic, social and environmental paralysis will happen instead.
I would like to say the country can survive this stress until democracy can take its required path. But if that is the case the cost may be very high due to what might happen, and not happen, in the meantime. Last night's result proved Johnson's day needs to be over and most non-payroll Tories realise it. But achieving that goal will be hard, and the cost high. This story is far from over.
And the real question remains, which is will Labour work with others to prevent this ever happening again, or will it just work in its own self-interest? The signs from Starmer last night were not good. Add that to the list of concerns.
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Johnson claims the electorate actually want him to proceed with the levelling-up plan. There is no levelling-up plan. There is a levelling-up slogan. It was never intended to be more than a void created by Brexit. An appeal to the anti-immigrant vote. There isn’t even a polystyrene wall to knock over. It is like everything else in the Conservative-UKIP Party: fake.
Agreed – it’s actually what it always was – Cameron’s levelling down plan to compete on the world stage by having the lowest taxes, lowest regulations, lowest standards and lowest wages.
Too many of the English public who are only now getting used to how Scotland, Ireland and Wales and other reaches of ‘the Empire’ have been treated for years have not worked out yet that these polices will hurt them – and not make their lives better.
Maybe the English will get there eventually – there has to be hope.
40% of johnsons MPs no longer want him as PM. Only 44% of the people who voted wanted him as PM. I think it’s fair to assume that 40% of the 44% now don’t want him as PM. That leaves under 20% of the voters want him as PM.
That is our democracy.
Huh – tell me why I knew he’d survive.
Totally agree with your reference to the Republicans.
Well – let’s see what happens in Wakefield etc. Heavy losses at the bye-elections will panic the Party – more turbulence.
But the Tory supporting money machine is now in full swing no doubt. Favours are being created and called in.
Isn’t modern politics great!
It is ironic that Johnson’s only service to Britain is that in his schoolboy desire to show-off to his chums he has done more than any other British politician to expose the truth about the Tory party, who they are, their true intentions and how they operate.
When the Soviet bloc collapsed Western triumphalists proclaimed that Neo-liberal globalization would be the vehicle that would enable us to export the best of western values, democracy, the rule of law and integrity to the rest of the world. Those of us who had already seen the consequences of the lies and greed of Reaganism/Thatcherism had grave doubts.
Personally, I thought we had already begun to import the worst ideas from the rest of the world such as dictatorship, endemic corruption and lying without accountability and sadly 30 years on that appears to be by far the dominant direction of flow.
The only question now is how much further can Johnson or a replacement take us down that road before a General election.
So his attempt to blatantly bribe his MPs by promising to reduce taxes failed. How come he can suddenly find money to reduce taxes while the country is on its knees ?
He should have taken this opportunity to increase tax on dividends – can never understand why people who make money by not working pay less tax on income than those who actually go out to work to get income !
I suspect even for Johnson it would be too much to withdraw the whip from individuals presumed to have voted against him in a secret ballot held under party rules. There would be a very high risk of antagonising the 211 who did support him.
And I assume he can do the simple arithmetic and realise that if only some of the 148 suddenly discovered an urgent appointment which prevented them being present for a Commons vote they found distasteful, he would find himself in May’s position of being unable to pass legislation. That would certainly hasten the end. I wonder if Johnson will go ahead with legislation whose whole rationale is to break an international treaty, which many will see as failure to learn from people’s revulsion of his domestic law-breaking.
I am sure he could find reasons
After all, he has done it to more than 20 MPs before now, ending their careers
I wonder if he has considered some sort of loyalty oath before allowing MPs to retain the whip or to retain party affiliation at the next general election…
“I swear I will be faithful and obedient to the leader of the British realm and people, Boris Johnson”
What could possibly go wrong?
🙂
So Johnson keeps marching on, keeping his powder dry, the self confidence is not to be sniffed at. Or is that self-delusion?
In my back garden vegetable plot, I’ve been plagued by this big bloated great disgusting slug, for two years now. It chews up all my carefully nurtured salad crops and leaves a trail of slime and filthy looking slug shit wherever it sllthers.
I am told that my local MP is in fact interested in matters relating to gardening and farming, so I’ve asked him for advice and help in dealing with this disgusting slimy glistening pullulating lump of slugflesh. But to no avail: it turns out he and his pals are actually themselves slug huggers. They moronically seem to love my and other folk’s slugs and actually intend to encourage more of them to breed, which won’t be nice for my vegetable plot. So what can I do? Now, I am in despair. Should I just give up gardening altogether – giving in to the slug-huggers perhaps? Or are there any other people around who suffer from slug infestation whom I might meet up and work with? I don’t know of any – I hear of people who don’t like slugs, but they seem to be a rather insipid if well meaning lot and ineffective in dealing with the slug hugging and breeding morons.
An apt analogy for the times we’re in Mike. I was stupid enough to think he might actually lose now and be on his way out. Judging from past events it’s the beginning of the end for the wretch, but as Richard says, in the meantime who knows what disasters he’ll unleash as he tries any load of crap to cling onto power.
“Fifth, there will be no discussion at all on what needs to actually be done for the country. As Jesse Norman MP has noted, all Johnson’s government is about is the day to day, hour by hour survival of Johnson. Nothing else matters. In that case anything that might require real attention, or provoke real change, or which has a planning horizon beyond a fortnight, or is not capable of being described in a three word slogan, will be ignored. Government neglect of duty will just grow.”
Roll on more by-election defeats and the Commons Standards committee report.
I suspect Richard is right re: right wing lurch. For the string-pullers* on the end of the tug of war, I fear Johnson and his minions will push a raft of disturbing legislation through at a rate of high knots – to do as much damage to Britain before the rug can be pulled from under.. come a GE.
* What is Matthew Elliot up to these days?
He was in favour of firearm legalisation.
There is an attempt by pro-Johnson Conservative MPs to claim that the fact that he managed to bully a majority of Conservative MPS to vote for him, they must respect that peculiar constituency majority alone, and are now powerless to remove Johnson, even where they acknowledge that both they and their constituents believe his leadership is intolerable, and his behaviour literally unacceptable. This is madhouse politics.
Let me deconstruct this crackpot fiddling with results to make abject Conservative defeat look like victory.
First winning a ‘no-confidence’ vote has never saved a PM. No recent PM has actually lost a vote; but May and Thatcher were ousted becuse of the reduction in support. Even Neville Chamberlain won the no-confidence vote in Parliament in 1940; but the loss of support among Conservative MPs meant he was finished. The defence of ‘winning the vote’ is simply false.
Second, there are 141 Conservative MPs who do not trust their own Leader. The power of a PM is entirely based on their capacity to control a majority in Parliament (not in a Party). This is not a policy issue, it is an integrity issue. A no-confidence vote in Parliament would enable the Opposition to remove Johnson, even if many of the 141 merely abstained. Either the 141 have standards – or they place Party before integrity. If you do not vote against Johnson, then – frankly – you deserve the same fate.
Third. Look at the constituency of Conservative MPs. 211 voted for Johnson. At least 100 are on the Government payroll. That leaves only around 100 backbench Conservative MPs not paid by Government who actually beileve him. Circa 100 out of around 359 total (around 259 backbenchers). Notice, that is around 100 out of a total complement of over 500 MPs in Parliament, excluding the payroll. Johson is almost entirely dependent on the Government payroll. We may expect that to expand considerably in the coming weeks. He can’t afford to sack anyone either.
This is a farce. Whatever it is, it isn’t Government, it isn’t competent, and it isn’t even respectable.
I only disagree with one thing. The payroll vote is much bigger than you suggest – around 160 when PPS’s are taken into account
Yes, I followed the wrong estimate. I think Rory Stewart suggested that only around 25% of backbenchers did not vote against Johnson. Which means he only has the support of one-in-four of MPs he is not payrolling. He can’t sack anyone, and who canh bring in? If Johnson does survive this it becomes a possibility that he will sink the Conservative Party to save himself: quite an achievement – for a Conservative.
Indeed….
This played out rather predictably.
It’s all very Lord of the Flies.
At least “Lord of the Flies” had a point, compared to the slaver in chief now gleefully enjoying the British slide into irrelevance 🙁
Hope this goes through 🙂