One of mildly annoying things about watching politics day in, day out, is that none of the rational reasons for people desiring change cut through, but the irrational ones do. It would seem people think any amount of economic distress is beyond the government's ability to address, whilst the abuse of rights is taken by people as a given. But then, to quote whoever once said it (and there is little evidence that MacMillan did), ‘events' take over. Three events are taking over sentiment now. I suspect they will be pivotal.
First, there is partygate. People have at long last noted this. And when all was supposedly meant to be resolved, at least according to Johnson, the anger has become apparent. The lies, the contempt, the excuses and the whitewash by the Met and Sue Gray, have all become very obvious, and people are very angry. Rightly so, too. A friend of mine last saw her mother through the window of a care home. Downing Street partied. There is in that contrast an irreconcilable difference in view that is now clear to most.
The confusion and delays at airports highlight another issue. It is now a ritual for many to have an annual foreign holiday in the sun. As someone who has not left the UK to holiday for more than a decade I don't fully comprehend this, but accept it as a reality, for now. And what airport chaos is doing is to take the pleasure out of that, entirely. Whether it's having a second rate passport or the inability to recruit staff due to Brexit that is to blame is of little consequence. The reality of Brexit has now become clear to millions. The choice to create borders, which is what Brexit was about, has a significant cost. It just had to get very personal for it to be noticed. Now it has been. There will be millions pondering the wisdom of their choice as they wait in line only to have their flights cancelled this summer. Few will escape the conclusion that Brexit really is not working.
Then, perhaps more contentiously, there are the events of this weekend. The gratitude towards the Queen for a life of service is real amongst many. But, the prospect of King Charles III clearly worries many. And the brazen attempts to portray the royal line as functional and worthy of celebration appears crass and even deeply mistaken when this, like almost all others, is a deeply divided and dysfunctional family. It is, however, worse than that. Even the BBC has let sentiment about an interfering, political king whose judgement cannot be relied upon creep into some of its broadcasting, albeit in odd moments. I suspect the realisation that this is what we are going to get is very real as Charles takes on the role of Regent, even if as ever his mother is denying him what he wants. No doubt that is because she realises how dangerous giving it to him might be. That leaves deep constitutional uncertainty in the air.
Why note all this? Because I think the doubts people are having are real, and pivotal. They are suffering economic malaise, neo-fascism and failed government, but it is the lived experience of ‘events' that seems to change things, and those events are happening. I strongly suspect that this will be what Tory MPs are hearing this weekend, by the bucketload. And that will, I think, influence the number of them both willing to put letters in to call for Johnson's recall come the return of parliament tomorrow, and to vote against him in what looks to be an increasingly likely no confidence vote this week. Friday's booing will be resonating in their ears, and rightly so. Johnson is a man whose time has gone.
Will he survive? I do not know. Should he survive? Clearly not. Is his legacy sealed? I think so, and it is dire. Will he drag the Tories down with him? I strongly suspect so, whatever happens.
But I still wish the other parties were ready to provide an alternative vision. Events demand it. They will need it soon.
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Found it!
Interesting word here ‘Queenist’ ie people who like The Queen as head of state but are not necessarily Royalist
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/04/unlike-the-queen-king-charles-will-have-no-sense-of-caution-only-of-entitlement
It seems to me that we might be heading towards some sort of Constitutional Crisis with the combination of a ‘Populist’ leader and a King who does not command the support of the Nation – particularly not outside England.
Given her age it seems to me surprising that Government – or anyone else for that matter, hasn’t given some serious thought as to how the reign Charles III might play out
This has been my opinion for years, although Cohen articulates it rather better than I ever could
I doubt if the institution of the Monarchy can survive the end of the Queen, at least, not in a recognisable form
I watched the documentary ‘The Spider’s Web: Britain’s Second Empire’ last night that involves people in your immediate policy circle talking about off shore and the City of London Corporation.
It makes this post this morning look almost frivolous.
What we saw yesterday on our TVs was the hollow front of our democracy.
What I saw last night on my TV was an exposition of the truth. Who rules and how.
In my view, we have a government within a government. By rights if we had the minerals should send the police and the army in to arrest everyone of them and wind them down for good. Close down their offices and edifices and disperse them.
And the one prime minister who had the balls to call it out – Clem Attlee – got the largest portion of the popular vote in the next election but lost because of ‘boundary changes’. Hmmm………..and he was even hard left.
Proportional Representation? You can forget it whilst the Corporation of London still exists as a real shadow Government of this country. I guarantee that if Johnson and/or the Tory project survives, The Corporation of London will have its dirty hands on it.
You know I don’t think I want live here any more.
I mean, what a shit house of a country.
A mass deception perpetrated against us in plain sight with seemingly no recourse whatsoever. They’ve been playing with us all this time. Playing with us.
I don’t know what else to say to be honest. It’s pure evil.
I regret saying I was too busy to appear in that film….
It’s on Youtube for interested parties.
Wandering through our local park jubilee day – the impression was people appreciating each other. Some bunting, some flags, but mainly about community – stalls, etc. Apparently there is a move to have and annual Thank You day to thank each other for what we do.
It would be good for the peasants not to need royal permission to celebrate.
If the monarchy was stripped down or abolished , which it should be , it would have to be part of a new consitutional settlement, to get some proper checks and balances into this ricketty ‘good chaps’ elected dictatorship we have now.
But can anyone see any feasble way of this coming about? I can’t.
Strange really. I remember the furor about lowering the flags to half mast when Diana died. It was against protocol and, initially, protocol won. What my wife took away from these celebrations was the public being readied for Queen Camilla.
Regarding Johnson, I expect his position will be markedly weaker after the byelections on 23 June than they are now. He may very well win a vote of confidence in the next week or two, but it could be very different in three weeks time. Even if the Conservative leadership changes, as I think it must before long, it is difficult to foresee how the recover before the next general election. Things are worse than they were under Major in the 1990s. But Labour is also performing worse than it did under Smith and Blair.
Regarding the monarchy, I expect it will do what it has done many times before, which is adapt. There is clearly much goodwill for the Queen, and Charles will arrive with significant goodwill, in the UK at least. The cohesion of the Commonwealth may weaken substantially, and it could fall apart.
The last few days have been an exercise in repeatedly showing us the line of succession – Charles, and William, and then George, who could be king in 2100. If Charles is wise, his store of goodwill could be maintained through his reign. Even if he is not, it will take time to erode. Charles is 73 and with the best will in the world he will do well to survive until he is 93. If he does, William will be approaching 60. This is the normal state of affairs – middle aged or older men reigning as king for a couple of decades at best. The exceptions are Victoria and Elizabeth, becoming queen in their youth and remaining on the throne for 60 or more years.
On the well-known but probably apocryphal Macmillan quote, it appears it was originally “opposition of events”. https://quoteinvestigator.com/2020/08/31/events/
That term was used by Churchill in 1919, a few months after he became Minster for War towards the end of his period as a Liberal (the party was falling apart between Asquith and Lloyd George; Churchill lost his seat in 1922, and returned to the Conservatives in 1924) when he was talking about “the difficulties we have to face are only the difficulties of circumstances, and the only opposition we have to encounter worth speaking of is the opposition of events”. https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=hWAvDgAAQBAJ&pg=PT62
Thanks
For me the best evidence for a change,and the worse thing that Mr Johnson could have done was to change the Ministerial Code as soon as he could.He could do this,of course,even if he probably shouldn’t,but it just looked like a crass thing to do.What were his advisers doing?Apart from looking for other jobs.
The two most depressing aspects of Partygate IMO :
1/ When lawmakers break their own laws, you are not being governed you are being ruled over. Partygate is not about the particular acts taking place it is about that fundamental principle, and is a further signal of how far this government has lurched into authoritarianism. It’s SERIOUS.
2/ The blatant (and nonchalantly delivered) tactic of kicking the can down the road until a majority of people lose interest was not ineffective. They know how to ‘play’ the public.. or shepherd them, if you like.
What’s more.. the lawbreaking was endemic :
With the expenses scandal – MPs from all sides were at it. It was wrongly of course, considered a way to top up the fairly average salary of the time across parliament. With Partygate the lawbreaking was endemic among Tories alone. It speaks to an increasingly brazen culture within this government.
We don’t just need a substitution of Prime Minister.
My wife is watching The Pageant.
Wheres Boris?
Kier Starmer is seen behind Prince Charles but although it seems he’s sitting next to Princess Anne the BBC haven’t shown him
Crumbs!!
https://www.thenational.scot/news/20187827.boris-johnson-told-step-immediately-conservative-donor-named-mr-tory/
Lots more Booing, this time at The Pageant
If there is one person who makes my blood boil other than Boris and people like Dan Hannan its Graham Brady and the way he sits there smiling whilst fielding questions on how many signatures he has.
It’s just more government within government as far as I can see and has no place in a modern democracy . The 1922 Committee needs to be written out of our politics.