As I write this the local election results have produced this overall trend according to The Guardian:
The consequence is that looks as though there is a modest swing from Tory to Labour, markedly disrupted in many locations by swings to the LibDems and Greens.
These results have a long way to go as yet, and most of the significant results are in London and the South as yet, but there still seem issues worth noting.
Labour's wins in Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet are very big news. As a former (18 year) resident of Wandsworth I am especially pleased by that result, but Westminster is bigger, having been Tory since 1964. Barnet is also deeply significant, because this is the Tory council that tried to outsource everything, and which had been utterly indifferent to housing need. It also has three Tory MPs. That is big news then.
So too though is Labour taking Southampton, which I always think, again as a former resident, should be a natural Labour city.
As for the Red Wall: Labour by and large kept seats held in 2018 before the Red Wall collapse, and won Cumbria, a Tory area in MP terms. But it was not convincing, so far.
The LibDems are reported to have virtually wiped out the Tories in Richmond on Thames and have made big gains in Oxfordshire. News from the South West will now be interesting. News from Hull already is: it's now LibDem.
And Greens have made big gains.
What it looks like is that the informal coalition between left of centre parties has worked in that case. The Anything But Conservative message of voting for the candidate most likely to beat a Tory has worked, even if they might not otherwise have been a person's preference. I hope so. I have no enthusiasm for having to do this in our corrupt voting system in England and (so far) Wales: I just wish we could move to single transferable voting as Scotland has done. It makes no sense to use anything else.
So, what of the Tories? I have a number of observations and a question. First, there are signs of some anger at Johnson, but not enough to force him out, I suspect. These results can be brushed off as mid-term. Unless they are more strategic, and that is not a Tory quality these days, Tory MPs are not going to be demanding his demise after these results.
Second, if there is a trend it is that higher earning / educated areas are turning against the Tories, which is now a working-class supported party despite doing nothing for working-class voters. The big question is whether that blue-collar Tory support will survive the recession to come.
Third, being toxic in London, which Johnson obviously now is, is not enough to suggest he is toxic everywhere. It will, however, be interesting to see the Scottish result and those in Wales. If they too treat Johnson as toxic and the LibDems do well in the South West then the Tories may be in more trouble, but London is not setting the scene and needs to realise it.
Fourth, the question: where was Carrie Johnson yesterday? She was not out to vote with Johnson when photographs always require it. Has she had enough of being dumped on by him (wallpaper, parties, fines, etc?). Maybe, and maybe not, but if she has that could be a serious mood indicator. If she feels like a victim of a toxic Downing Street then Tory MPs might pick up the mood. There may be serious questions being asked.
Overall? If ever there was evidence that we need proportional representation to properly reflect the diversity of opinion in England, then this election is proving it. I look forward to the Scottish result as a consequence. If Labour comes second there it will be big. But so far Labour is not really convincingly suggesting it's picked up the narrative as yet, because it plainly has not.
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The commentary by a guy called Curtis in the Guardian was interesting:
“Yes, Labour has certainly made progress as compared with last year but last year was a very poor performance – four points up on last year was not exactly surprising.
Therefore this is certainly not a local election performance that in any sense indicates a party that is on course for winning a general election with an overall majority. Indeed, I’m not sure whether you could even say that at this point it’s guaranteed, or necessarily on course, even to be the largest part of the next party in the next parliament. There is still an awful lot of work for Labour to do, not least perhaps in more leave-voting England.”
Sounds like a fair summary. Liebore looks very much like a re-tread of New-Liebore 1997 – but without the zest. If Mendacious Fat calls an election, if strategic voting takes hold I predict a parliament where Liebore will be forced into coalition & with a bit of luck – one condition (3-line party whip etc) will be electoral reform. No funny business this time a la the tory-s under Cam-moron. With electoral reform the Tories-s will be dead ducks.
Why must you persistently use the infantile tag ‘Liebore’ ??
It’s profoundly obvious that they aren’t the party of lies.. see if you can detect any elephants in the room, for that honour.
Carrie Johnson: some time ago, he indicated that he was having what he called buyer’s remorse. This remark was taken to refer to his wife. Perhaps she could be feeling similarly. Just a thought.
Labour needs some policies and ideas if it is to make any real gains. At the moment I am not sure it stands for anything. It is just hoping that voters will switch from Con to Lab without having to work for it.
Completely agree. I was trying to explain Labour party policies to a German visitor, and ran out of ideas after two sentences. An old market research question was to ask “if x was a pop star, football team, or store, what would it be? My view of Labour is Bournemouth for football (boring and not very good), and Pandora as store (over-priced trinkets in the window), but am at a loss for the pop star.
Don’t interrupt the government whilst it is destroying itself, seems to be the strategy.
Or Starmer’s ‘Long game’. Presumably going to spring into action with policies when a GE is announced.
Either way, leaving the nation scratching its head is a poor effort.
Love or loath JC.. “For the many not the few” was to-the-point.. and oh so relevant today.
Corbyn sat out Brexit, unforgivably
And I know he did
Andrew Fisher, who wrote the manifestos told me face to face that was the pla
Hi Richard – I hope that you are feeling better.
I am a lot more negative about this morning’s results although participation seems to be low.
I worry that this brutalised country of ours is now past help to be honest. Too many seem to accept the Austerity/Rentier State as the new normal.
Given the gerrymandering that took place in Westminster City Council it is an amazing result for Labour.
But London is not Britain – as anyone who has lived and worked there will testify. Out here it is astounding that the Tories have not been punished more.
And your conclusion is correct – it is the only conclusion really.
But as I said it’s hard to know what insults people these days – how low can power go and still remain in power.
I know a lot of the causation but I’m still clueless at the end of the day. I remain profoundly despondent.
“… there are signs of some anger at Johnson, but not enough to force him out, I suspect. These results can be brushed off as mid-term. Unless they are more strategic, and that is not a Tory quality these days, Tory MPs are not going to be demanding his demise after these results.”
A sound observation. What does that tell me? In 2014 I was searching for a ‘Devo Max’ solution for Scotland. It was withheld, deliberately in Westminiter Party interest. I supported Independence, not expecting to win, but in the hope Britain was capable of wisdom, or of just learning something new from the experience of a close call. It didn’t.
The fact that we can have a Conservative PM whom his own ex-boss, Max Hastings – editor of the the Daily Telegraph, for heaven’s sake, could give the British people an explicit warning in ‘I was Boris Johnson’s boss: he is utterly unfit to be prime minister’ (The Guardian, 24th June, 2019); yet after the grotesque demonstration we have seen of Johnson’s unfitness for high office since he won an election, and the suffering of so many people in horrible personal circumstances of the death of family, by sticking to a higher public calling – we can see that the political standards of the British people are entirely cynical, self serving – and even then they cannot discriminate where their real interests, and the national interest lies.
Clearly Scotland must remove itself from Britain. It has little choice; there is no hope for Britain with the values it now embraces.
This article is more than 2 yea’
My apologies, a reference to the age of the Hastings artilce has managed to drag itself from my cut-and-paste of his article title. Mea Culpa.
These seats were contested i 2018 and 2014. Nothing much changed in 2018 but 2014 was the year of the UKIP surge.
As we know most of this vote subsequently transferred their loyalties to Johnson’s Brexit Tories. On the evidence so far (10.30am on Friday morning) it suggests that where voters still believe all the Tory lies about Brexit their vote is holding up but is crumbling elsewhere.
The other important issue that needs to be addressed is the complete disillusionment of all the young Labour activists that will be needed to defeat the Tories at the next General Election. Disillusioned because they supported Jeremy Corbyn, lest we forget the twice democratically elected Labour leader, and view his defeat by the British Establishment and his defenestration by the new Labour leadership as profoundly undemocratic and unjust.
The only fear that I have with Labour is that they will take any positives from these results and still be of the belief that the FPTP voting system is their friend and that they can win a General Election. Maybe they can, but the vagaries of FPTP, the vested interests labour would need to suck up to win seats, would always mean that a Labour Government under FPTP is a watered down one. Basically keeping the seat of power warm for the Tories.
The sooner Labour realise that they cannot win under FPTP with the necessary agenda to bring about change the better. I doubt they understand that yet.
With gains widely spread they would be most unwise to do so
The Tories are being slaughtered in the Somerset County Council elections.
I am enjoying an unholy glee. I am a flawed human being!
Enjoy it
Paddy Ashdown working the influence 🙂 What a great PM he would have made!
Flawed!
I was so surprised with myself – my hackles went up when I saw who was on Any Questions last night and I just did not trust myself to be there. I just felt hatred to be honest – real hatred for them. All of them. It’s a very uncomfortable feeling in the put of my stomach.
The only good thing about my hatred is that it is aimed in the right direction – not towards the EU, immigrants or even to the rich – but to those who have failed to make a good society. Our so-called politicians – our rulers. Not doing their job to rule on behalf of All.
And please don’t think Richard that it is this blog that has got me all worked up.
I only have to go work to see how bad things are – the unkempt streets, malfunctioning traffic lights and rotting infrastructure, the road that has been closed now for 3 years and not repaired.
Poorly paid colleagues delivering poorly funded services to poor people. Disgusting.
Looking at the Guardian’s website this afternoon, I can dream of an imaginary + between the Labour, Lib Dem and Green results because that’s the only thing that will get me to vote again – a mass movement to rid ourselves of these Tory scum bags. Anything else is just playing at politics to me and I’m not interested in that.
Looking at the results at 14:00 Labour are history. Yes they have gained 4 councils but there net councillor gain is 45!
Over 200 now
I was going to go along to Any Questions on BBC R4 tonight but once I saw who the panellists were (one is Matthew Parris who makes my skin crawl to be honest) I decided not to go. Margaret Beckett is there too along with another Eaton Tory and a Lib Dem MP who used to work in finance.
None of the political representatives on show offer me anything to be honest. Beckett was a member of the Government who meddled with my pension in 2003. She has visited my department to support our affordable housebuilding programme and I was very grateful for that but policy wise Labour is an empty vessel as I feel she is.
For all my explaining the causals of the English political mindset – how misinformed we are, set against each other, manipulated etc., John Warren is right to mention and warn of the degradation of English politics and its caustic effects. Even talking to colleagues today at work, the language of the Sun and Daily Mail rules even in the public sector.
Politics has become so short term to support the market and people’s expectations have followed the same way so that we cannot see that we are hurting our children. We are fully paid up members of the market system, too concerned with our ability to consume and too easily persuaded that when we can’t, it must be someone else’s fault to notice who and what is actually making things harder for us all of the time (in this case The Tory Government this last 12 + years). We can’t see that it is the Government because like good capitalists we cannot see past our noses.
The triumph of the neo-liberal right is to dominate the centre as well, so that the centre is not the compromise it claims to be. It’s still actually the Right . That way, anything to the left can be portrayed as ‘extreme’.
Those of us who have been resisting this degradation by campaigning (like Richard) or taking a solitary stance (like me) must realise that this state of affairs has been under development for some time. We are well on the way to being a rather extremist culture which just so happens to be Right wing (the Establishment choice).
I’m washing my hands of politics folks. I’m heartily sick of it. Stick a fork in its arse – it’s done.
Tonight instead, I’m going to do some more work on the 50-70 plus affordable homes I’m getting through the planning system on brownfield sites in the city I work in. I have about another 9 years left at work and so maybe I can get these and others built and then call it day having achieved something. Tomorrow I’ll give out the 4 copies of Richard’s ‘Money for Nothing’ booklet to neighbours that I bought and continue if I may to come here to keep sane.
Other than that, I will keep my self away from the unprincipled muppet-mouthpieces that pass for politicians these days and the cesspit that is politics itself and hope for better days when I am long gone. I am stepping outside the FPTP voting system and ‘may be some time’.
What we are witnessing now is redolent of one of the oldest stories known to mankind.
It’s the one about not listening, not being curious, not expecting better but in this version I’m afraid, in the here and now there will be no salvation for some time to come for any of us I feel which is why keeping the ideas alive on this blog will become even more important.
I wish Scotland, Ireland and Wales the best and hope that the ‘English way’ remains just that and nothing more. But be careful with ‘nationalism’ – it has its own pitfalls – yeah?
I’m reading that, outside London, Conservative losses are 13% to Labour but 87% to other parties. My take is that voters sense the absence of policy and energy in Labour and are trying out other parties in the hope of changing the status quo.
On the subject of working class Tory voters, those in the Blue Wall who have lived long enough to pay off their mortgages (on their homes greatly increased in value) and collect the state pension are apparently still satisfied with the government.
What the election results show so far is a consistent trend of votes moving away from the right wing (Tories and UKIP both down with Labour, Liberals and Greens all benefitting). There were no elections in King’s Lynn, but the Greens have made gains in Norwich.
Some years ago (2016!) , Richard was kind enough to put me in touch with some like minded people. We continue to meet virtually each Sunday for a political talk. They all joined (& then left) Labour. This is the view of one of them on what I will call Liebore:
“Labour have become the NFTs of politics. The culmination of years of hype and spin. Completely detached from reality. Rated highly by chancers and grifters who live in a technological neoliberal bubble. They are utterly detached from what they seek to represent and will disappear in a Ponzi ‘poof’ of smoke when the ‘information exchanges’ (press) finally realise no one trusts anything they say or do and at they are in fact ‘worthless’.
I voted Green. The Welsh Labour illusion will probably linger longest as they have a tinsy bit of power and a leader with integrity.”
It is all very very sad. The current mob running Liebore would label me and my group as “trots”. Pathetic.