Something very strange happened yesterday.
It began when I wrote a Twitter thread when I had no plan to do so. I had promised myself a morning off after an intense week and what I knew would be a long day on other activities. But I wrote a first tweet, admittedly off line, and the rest just followed, so I decided to publish it.
Like most of my writing, this one was about trying to work out for myself what I felt about the situation that has developed, and what I really thought about it. I have to admit to an essential selfishness in my purpose, and do so without much apology. If that desire to find out what I really think did not exist not much of what I write would see the light of day.
And then people on Twitter seemed to like what I had written. This is the data so far, but the numbers are constantly rising. My screen advised me of three new Twitter followers as I wrote the last sentence, and two more during this one. Around 3,000 people have followed my account in 24 hours.
It would seem that people have had enough.
And it would seem that people do want change.
I have scanned the reactions and it seems very few are strongly adverse, to my slight surprise.
Many have forwarded the thread to party leaders.
Watching the Sunday morning politics programmes it seems as if there is a concerted desire, including by journalists, to get things ‘back to normal' this morning. I am not convinced this is possible now. Johnson and the Tories have gone too far.
I think we can ask ‘what is next?' now. But not this morning. I need a walk.
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I think everyone has their limit when it comes to asking the question ‘What is the nicest reason X or Y did so and so’.
But Johnson and his cronies don’t seem to have realised that if he had nothing to hide, then he would not need to get further involved with Gray or the Police.
The Tory ‘Nudge Unit’ seems to have ignored advising on that particular tipping point.
I think it also shows the ‘chancer’ culture in the modern Tory party – they are bare faced and will try to get away with anything.
All eyes will now be on what happens as a result of the Gray/Police ‘investigation’ and how that is portrayed, released, handled etc.
But the great sadness to me is what it is doing to the concept of ‘high office’. Government – even a good one – will end up being tarred with the same brush. And that is really bad.
I think people have gotten used to having votes on who represents the State rather more often in the last 8 years than has been good for them.
2014 referendum
2015 election
2016 referendum
2017 election
2019 election (and EU election earlier in the year)
Getting back to normal does mean fewer elections.
I absolutely share your sentiments and we are fortunate to have a democratic system which will almost certainly lead to a Starmer led Labour Govt in 2024. That is sufficient for me as I like the direction of the Party and think Starmer is a very capable politician… it seems you are proposing more fundamental change? I am wondering how you want this to take effect and by what means?
I think you’ve just come to wind people up haven’t you?
What will change with Labour? They seem to believe in everything the Tories believe in don’t they?
What are we going to get? A kinder sort of cruelty – a kinder sort of austerity (but still austerity)? A kinder BREXIT? A kinder but just as hostile home Office?
I think that you under estimate the need for change in this country. The Tories have broken the political structures of this country Paul for good.
A Labour Government has to reform Parliament and the bring in PR in order to stop rampant Toryism.
And a Labour Government has to go back to its Clem Attlee roots and rekindle Government commitment to the NHS and social security.
The best thing that Labour can be thinking about if it comes to power is spending money (using MMT) and putting back what the Tories have taken out. And that includes restoring a gas storage facility they closed down for their Russian friends and getting seriously ready and on guard for the next global pandemic.
And the other area is tax reform – they have to deal with this to curb any inflationary risks that come from their reinvestment.
But I don’t hear any of this from this party you say you like.
All you are going to get is more of the same but without the posh boy behaviour.
Yet another party with a false narrative about what it cannot do, rather than what it can do – must do, should do for people you and me.
I think it probably put down in words what a significant number are thinking (myself included). So, thank you.
I still fear that the Quockerwodger will escape – hope not – and even if he doesn’t then the replacements are just as bad and the lack of opposition from Labour and the LibDems is very worrying. Still, a large oak starts as a small acorn.
Craig
As I said in a previous thread, the Met aren’t conducting a ‘criminal investigation’; they can’t possibly be. All they can establish is whether Covid rules were breached and whether FPN’s should have been issued, that is all. It wouldn’t surprise me if the conclusion leads to a statement no more elaborate than ‘no further action necessary’. Even if they publish their evidence, it’s unlikely to go beyond Sue Gray’s remit and they can’t act upon it anyway; FPN’s can’t be issued, after the fact, beyond 6 months.
Sue Gray is a civil servant, not a judge, all she can do is present her findings; she can’t make recommendations, never mind take punitive action. The findings will be presented to the sole arbiter, in cases concerning the ministerial code, the person occupying the office of Prime Minister. Johnson is his own judge and jury, no matter what we think, the decision as to whether the code was broken is his and his alone. Likewise any punishment deemed necessary, or not, is entirely up to him.
The Met’s investigation is unhelpful, but ultimately irrelevant. The outcome of the Gray inquiry is in the gift of the Prime Minister. That’s where we are, so that means that unless 54 Tory MP’s trigger a VONC nothing is likely to happen if Johnson is determined to ride it out.
That’s my assessment; feel free to pick it apart Prof, anyone.
“FPN’s can’t be issued, after the fact, beyond 6 months”. What makes you say that?
Liberty, for example, say something quite different. https://www.libertyhumanrights.org.uk/advice_information/coronavirus-criminal-penalties/
Drew
You may well be right – but it is how this looks, never mind the criminal or not criminal technical aspect. The Police were asked to uphold Covid rules at the time of Johnson’s indiscretions and issue fines and bollockings – enforce the Covid rules. There is an element of common law here – natural justice etc.
The Police in proximity to those rule breaking at No.10 and elsewhere seem not to have upheld them for some reason.
Something happened against the rules. The Police have now got to investigate probably not only Johnson and others but themselves too as to why they were not upheld. They are in a bit of pickle as what happened also implicates their complicity with it. People will associate the involvement of the police as a serious matter – much more serious than an internal civil service ‘investigation’. At street level now Drew, police involvement is associated with law breaking and not to be taken lightly. There’s a perception issues here.
I agree with you however that the Police findings may just brush it off – an investigation which implicates the police too (er..Why did you let this happen?) as well as Johnson and Co. It will be dealt with in a way that Johnson will use to demonstrate that he did nothing that serious – that he is being let off a much more serious looking accusation – and that he is therefore blameless and will look all the more better for it.
I think it’s window dressing.
But as I said earlier, it is how the Police will deal with this, what Gray has to say too and how it is publicised (redacted?) that will trigger public reaction and that has not happened yet. And ultimately how Parliament decides how to deal with this most errant of PMs must also come into play.
I think that Parliament stands on the threshold of a huge test of its credibility to be honest.
Never mind the FTPA – Johnson will or should be in the court that is Parliament and it is the MPs in my view who should decide whether he resigns or not. He has simply prima facie broken the rules Parliament created, seemingly in contempt of it.
He has to go. There has to be a vote of no confidence by the House. But will they make him go? There is a huge moment on the horizon the way I see it anyway.
And I think as soon as he crosses over that point, the change that Richard picked up in his Twitter postings the other day will change again for the worst I think. I think things could get a lot darker. ‘We’re all in it together’ just won’t hold.
I said it because that’s what I read elsewhere, I wouldn’t have posted it if I didn’t think that was the case. Sorry I can’t provide a link; I cleared my search history earlier and can’t recall what I put in the search bar.
Even if, per your link, there’s no time limit to issuing an FPN, paying it avoids any possibility of criminal conviction. I still think the police investigation is irrelevant in directly affecting Johnson’s position, should he decide to tough it out.
Anyway, I stand corrected and don’t have any issues in being put right, so thanks for the heads-up.
#JohnsonOut6 trends at number three on Twitter. The idea of removing Johnson, at least, is popular. No sign yet of any general yearning for an overall reformation though. Clearly however this era is ending. The shape of the next will no doubt be decided by those prepared to fight hardest for it.
I watched Liz Truss this morning talking to Sophie Raworth. Truss seems even more robotic than Theresa May.
Agreed
Much worse
I recently read an excellent description of Truss as a “right wing random word generator.”
Far too generous s description in my opinion.
Karl, Truss is apparently referred to as ‘the human grenade’ because she,’blows up’ everything she touches.
Karl, apparently Truss is also known as ‘the human grenade’ because she tends to ‘blow up’ whatever she touches.
It worries me that people think that a simple change to a Labour government will change very much (any more than the Biden Presidency is doing so) – the rot in the US and here is deep, systemic and has been a long time coming. There is little sign that Labour grasps this.
Spring time for Johnston in Westminster Winter in Wales and Scotland…
Once the Energy pricing fiasco feeds through all stoked by leaving the EU and now the UK with access only to world market prices, this combined with the lack of or zero foresight to plan for any replacement of the -29% loss in NS gas production will result in just 2m more entering into poverty from April to July.
Please don’t blame Russia they already cut Gas delivery by some 80% to the EU and the UK is not likely to get its hands on that supply or even Norwegian production as that has also fallen.
Just leave it to market forces…
“Once the Energy pricing fiasco feeds through all stoked by leaving the EU and now the UK with access only to world market prices, this combined with the lack of or zero foresight to plan for any replacement of the -29% loss in NS gas production will result in just 2m more entering into poverty from April to July.”
Gas in the UK is normally priced (wholesale) at or close to global prices. UK gas exports (to EU) during the crisis have increased by +50% (better prices in mainland Europe? – market forces?). None of this has anything to do with the UK leaving the EU (& I notice that elec continues to flow from EU to UK). That said, UK elec prices tend to be +/- 50% above, for example, Nordpool prices and somewhat above German/West Denmark prices. UK a profit centre for EU electricity?
Moving back to gas, it is worth noting that the toryscum gov allowed Centric to close a large amount of UK gas storage (market forces? or just good lobbying?) a few years back. This has made a precarious gas supply situation worse. That said, UK will be back of the queue in terms of any access to Russian gas.
In fairness to our political elites, what they know about energy could be written on a small postage stamp (which reflects their interest in such matters). If supplies have to be rationed, as we have seen with Covis & parties, it won’t be them sitting in the cold/dark. +2m more in energy poverty……& they matter in political calculations why? The poor have never counted, & never will unless they do something beyond casting a Liebore vote.
Given that one of the aims of the Ukrainian circus is to stop Nord Stream II come hell or high water and stop Russian gas exports to the EU entirely, we can be sure that the situation will indeed get even more precarious. US fracking will be boosted however, and as supplies of US and other liquid gas from far flung parts of the world amplify to sate our demand, efforts to slow down climate change will be thrown to the wolves.
The Met is corrupt through and through, especially with Dick in charge. Think Peach, Morgan, Lawrence, Mendes, Everard…………. The Tories are high and dry now and Johnson will prevail as he always does. The Tories have gone up 5% in the polls over the last week even though partygate has been the biggest scandal since Suez or Profumo.
I have not seen 5%
And I do not think any recovery will be significant now
See polls taken by Opinium Research, 12 – 14 Jan 2022 and 27-28 Jan 2022. Agree a Tory recovery may be difficult for them, but considering the massive corporate power behind them and their 8o% domination of popular media, any Labour revival will be slow and difficult, especially as Starmer has no clear policy plans and abandoned the successful 2017 election manifesto that nearly scuppered Theresa May, it is all very uncertain.
Under Johnson, the current version of the Conservative party has degenerated so far that there is almost no way back. Virtually all the ministers and MPs reflect his views and values and have come out repeatedly and vocally to support him. The current membership seems to be in the same space. Their hands are all ‘dipped in the blood’ and there seems to be no event or behaviour that they will not defend or just ignore.
Given that assumption, things can only get worse with further dishonesty, law breaking and authoritarian behaviour, as they do everything possible to cling to power. I fear we will be stuck with them until the next election, given their large majority. The next government, probably Labour, will have a huge task to rebuild the country. That said they will then have a licence for more radical actions, if they have the courage.