I don't usually do this, but I feel the need to share here some of what I wrote in my column for The National newspaper yesterday.
Having reviewed the gloomy economic outlook for 2022, as I see it, I suggested that there was something that could be done about the overarching cause for concern, which is Covid. As I noted:
When I look at history it seems to me that we are looking in the wrong place for a solution to this crisis. In the 19th century waterborne disease was the great threat to city life. What history tells us is that it was not doctors who solved that problem. Engineers did that. They delivered the greatest advance in public health in that century by building the water and sewage systems that both delivered clean water and took away the waste. The success of the modern city was based upon that single spectacular advance.
I then added:
Reading the work of the epidemiologists who, it seems to me, best understand this current pandemic I think that a similar advance is possible. The members of Independent Sage do, for example, persistently stress the importance of clean air when it comes to tackling Covid, which we now know to be an airborne disease.
What they say is that without that clean air Covid cannot be beaten. With clean air they suggest that goal is possible. As evidence now shows, what are called HEPA filtration ventilators can deliver a massive transformation in air quality. This was demonstrated in a recent study at Addenbrooke's Hospital in Cambridge.
The quality of the air in hospital wards was dramatically increased by the use of these filter systems. As a result the amount of Covid circulating in that air was dramatically reduced. Patience faced a reduced risk of catching Covid, as did staff and visitors.
Costing this is a bit rough and ready, but what we do know is HEPA filter units are cheap and can be built by children from kits:
What would this miracle cost? One estimate suggested that every school in England could have one of these filters in every classroom at a cost of about £140 million, and that was based upon the most expensive Dyson filter, when cheaper options are available.
Adding up the cost for the whole of the UK in that case my suggestion is that installing filters would cost a bit over £1 billion. In Scotland that might be £80 million. There would be the running costs to consider, but they seem remarkably low.
In other words, we have an option to tackle Covid. It could work. It is available. The technology is proven. We need it now in schools, hospitals, hospitality and workplaces. This is the only way anyone knows to punch R below 1.
Why aren't we doing it? I do not know.
Why aren't opposition parties demanding it? I do not know.
I do know it is reckless not to deliver these units.
I am not saying this will stop Covid. But right now it seems a better bet than anything else, given current very high vaccine take-up.
So I do have a wish for 2022. It is for HEPA ventilation and filtration. And very soon.
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Here is some information on DIY Corsi-Rosenthal boxes. It appears that colleges and schools in USA are already doing it themselves!
https://cleanaircrew.org/box-fan-filters/
Whilst I would have no expectations of the UK government on this, I would have expected other governments to have implemented this if it were so obvious, cheap and deliverable. Have they?
There is no budget provided for them to do so
Westminster holds all the purse strings
But they should be demanding it
I was thinking France, Germany etc…… I understand that the UK Nations are not their own masters in many regards.
… actually, a quick internet search suggests schools in Munich have been doing this for the best part of a year…. but, of course, “what could a foreigner teach us ‘world beating’ Brits?”
I used to work for an air filtration company in the R&D department. HEPA (and ULPA where necessary) systems are common products often used in gas turbines for power generation, adapting these to domestic and commercial use would be a pretty easy and straightforward process for most companies making them far cheaper than anything offered by Dyson. Until the demand exists for such an adaption, most companies will not venture to develop cheaper alternatives. I think that there would also need to be agreement made prior to such an undertaking by all of the filter manufacturers as many sell filter housings that have bespoke dimensions, allowing only their own filters to be used. Having all manufacturers agree upon a set of universal dimensions for filter housing and filter heads would help prevent market domination.
For anyone interested, the link below gives some working definitions of filter grades and also some of the rudimentary science behind particle capture by filter media.
https://www.globalspec.com/learnmore/manufacturing_process_equipment/filtration_separation_products/hepa_filters_ulpa_filters
Thank you
Hi Chris W..Your reply and link is very interesting, could you explain how silver or silver solution could enhance this system…my understand silver is the nemesis of any virus!
That Addenbrookes relates to putting the kit into surge wards.
It’s reasonable to infer that wards designed for managing respiratory infections have air exchange systems, and so weren’t used for the trial.
There are things that could be done to reduce airborne spread including identifying the covid spreaders. If a small number of people account for a lot of transmission then this is worth looking at. March 2020 – I see you.
You’re not the only one Richard,
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n3149
I recall a trial being announced on the local news for some schools in Bradford, this was shortly after the summer holidays began. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear to have moved much further forward!
I’ve asked my local MP to ask a question in the Commons,about why they’re not organising and paying for their introduction to embarrass the Government.
Even if we escape the pandemic the use of air filters, particularly in classrooms, would help shield students from deadly air pollution as outlined in Dr Gary Fuller’s excellent,but scary, book ‘ The Invisible Killer’
Thank you! Let me know
Absolutely, they are proven to work and they are relatively cheap. Also, carbon dioxide monitors would be another good idea — here’s the photo of the CO2 detector screen at a Japanese cinema https://twitter.com/debsinamillion/status/1476127505861939200
Agreed
The inaction here is so easy to understand on the part of this government. The cost is cheap so there are fewer profits for Tory donors to extort from the public purse.
Make the cost around £37 billion and contracts will be given by some incompetent Tory ideologue to any firm that is a Tory donor.
“I am not saying this will stop Covid. But right now it seems a better bet than anything else, given current very high vaccine take-up.”
I’m not saying we shouldn’t have better filtration systems. Long before we had Covid I used to worry about the lack of openable windows on modern trains. I just didn’t trust that the air-con system weren’t simply recycling stale virus containing air in crowded carriages.
However, I would question that the vaccine take up is high enough. 25% or so of the population who aren’t sufficiently vaccinated still means there is a pool of around 16 million of suitable hosts to allow the virus to infect others and spread itself.
I’m no fan of the Tories. I’m a member of the Labour Party but I can’t see how we can blame the Government for people simply not turning up to their appointments. We should be more willing to address the issue of the deliberately unvaccinated. The Scotland has a higher vaccination rate than the rest of the UK. It is more difficult to manage without being properly vaccinated north of the border. I would go much further and do what it takes to make life extremely difficult for the ‘refuseniks’, starting with professional footballers who should not be allowed on the field of play without a vaccine passport!
Are the statistics for boosters correct?
I know quite a few people who have had boosters, but these don’t show on their medical records, unlike the two previous vaccinations.
People regularly get letters from the NHS telling them to go for their boosters “Our records show ….Please make an appointment”, even when you had one two months ago.
We can blame the government for that.
A son of mine has had a booster. His record does not seem to say so….
This is in Scotland. The Vacs website doesn’t show the booster, but if you download the pdf version it does. So does the the App for International Travel, while the “Scotland” only page on the app shows only a barcode.
Hi Richard.
Bit of a tangent but do you think this is a good reflection of where we are in 2022?
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2022/01/01/219-the-unravelling-begins/
I have read and recommend it
Get Van Tam and Wittey to blast Johnson with the message
Our house was designed with a mechanical ventilation and heat recovery system so that (unless you open a window or door) all incoming air is from outside and is filtered while taking internal air to the outside and heat exchanging on the way out. Brittany Ferries cabins and other indoor areas are supplied with fresh air from outside and not recirculated.
All new schools (and other buildings) should have such systems designed in.
I would be a little wary of using the Addenbrooke’s results as a comparator for schools. The wards had 4 or 5 patients (I think) lying in bed, schools have 30+ active youngsters to a room + adults. Another article suggested filters reduce infection rates by 41% in schools. https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/air-purifier-for-schools-classroom-covid19/
It’s certainly the way to go and as others have said it would also reduce pollution from other sources.
Absolutely. This aspect of housing design is something that should have been in the regs for the last 10 years, along with the rest of the passivhaus design standards. Another place in which property fabric first design principles are displaced by developer’s profits.
HEPA filter selector tool.
Dyson not suitable.
https://cleanairstars.com/hepafilters/