Have we passed a tipping point that creates hope for 2022?

Posted on

I got this in an email from Survation today:

New research and MRP analysis on voting behaviour and standards conducted on behalf of 38 Degrees by Survation in conjunction with Professor Christopher Hanretty of Royal Holloway University has found that the Conservative majority won in 2019 could disappear, should the current voting trend continue. The projections result in a hung Parliament, with Labour the largest party by a significant margin.

  • Our new research, using MRP, shows that core Conservative voting groups - older voters and rural constituencies are the most likely of all to be concerned by recent lobbying and lockdown party allegations.

  • As older voters are more likely to vote Conservative, we can see how the impact of accusations of sleaze shifts votes among older voters and order profile constituencies, depriving the Conservatives of many of these otherwise core voters.

  • Vote share projections in the poll show 41% for Labour, 35% for the Conservative Party and 9% for the Lib Dems,

  • MRP analysis from the figures indicate the Conservatives would win 255 seats, - a net loss of 111. Labour would return 309 seats, just 11 short of a majority and with a net gain of 107 seats on 2019 totals. SNP success would cause Conservatives to lose all their seats in Scotland

  • Five Cabinet ministers, including the Prime Minister, could lose their seats. Other Cabinet ministers projected to lose their seats include George Eustice, Simon Hart, Alister Jack and Alok Sharma.

  • Of 40 key Red Wall seats identified and currently held by Tories, only three (Dudley North, Morley & Outwood and Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland) are projected to be held by the Conservatives.

I am not counting chickens here today. I am well aware that Labour is leading because the Tories are failing and not on their own merit, and that can change.

However, as I have long suggested, there always has to be a tipping point if a government is to fail. I think we have passed one.

I would also point out that Labour has invariably won because the Tories failed. That was even true of 1945, when the failure was pre-war.

And so, maybe, this might be real. Opinion polls are consistently saying so right now. But in that case what has changed? I suggest three things.

First older conservatives (small c) have realised that this government is neither Conservative or conservative. Large and small c, note. No Tory party they have ever known before has behaved like Johnson and his cronies. And conservatives abhor contempt for the law, which Johnson now personifies.

Second, this has cut through. Ant and Dec did that. They realised there was real anger with contemptuous politicians. I am sure that there is.

Third, these voters realise that if these Tories are very obviously only in politics for themselves - as they glaringly  obviously are  - then all the promises that they make are meaningless. In that case there is no point voting for them.

It does, of course, remain the case that a staggering 30% or so of the population do still support the Tories. These people are, politely, stupid. In other words they are willing to support the Tories in denying the country as a whole the services it needs, from which denial they too will suffer, meaning their support for the Tories is literally incomprehensible since no winners   (apart from Tory cronies) can be identified as a result of it. But we have to admit that stupidity happens.

However, what this data proves is that there are enough people who have voted Tory in the past who still have the wit to realise that they can no longer be trusted or supported.

I think that is a tipping point. There is hope for 2022 are a result.