2022 might be a very turbulent year

Posted on

I mentioned yesterday my concern about what might happen to democracy as the omicron Covid crisis develops.

Last night 99 Tory MPs voted in outright rebellion against Boris Johnson in defiance of a three-line whip. Why did they rebel when they toed the line on removing free movement, the right to nationality, creating an internal customs border within the UK, filling rivers with excrement, denying children Covid protection, corruption and so much else? It was the seemingly innocuous issue of vaccine passports that they saw as a massive affront to liberty.

Leaving aside the fact that very recently the same MPs who voted against vaccine passports to save people's lives voted for the compulsory presentation of ID to vote, which makes a mockery of their position, this seemed like the weirdest of hills on which to stage a rebellion. Their claim was that this is the thin end of a wedge that will result in the creation of an authoritarian state.

In many ways these MPs are right. It is entirely true that their own party colleagues do seem intent on creating an authoritarian state where the rights of vast numbers of people are to be curtailed, but if anything those who rebelled seem keener on that process than those towards whom their protest was directed.

So what is this all about? It cannot be, as these MPs claim, that any reasonable understanding of freedom can actually underpin this rebellion because very clearly freedom does not drive the thinking of these people or they would have been in open rebellion on a great many issues over the last two years. This claim is, then, nonsense. That claim is, then, at best rhetoric, but not justification.

I suggest that the reason for this rebellion is much more toxic. If we assume that whatever a populist says is not what they mean, but nonetheless gives a clue as to their motivation, then in this case what we realise is that this rebellion is not about the freedom of the individual - which Dominic Raab has made clear is a matter of no concern at all to the Tory right-wing - but is instead all about the freedom of capital. The aim of those mounting this rebellion was to keep the economy open, come what may, so that the making of profit could continue unimpeded whatever the human cost.

More than that though, I suggest that these people are also dedicated to the destruction of the state as we know it, and so want to make sure that the NHS does fail, again whatever the human cost. This would then provide them with the perfect opportunity to argue for its privatisation.

What we have on display here then is pure, far right, dogmatic politics that is dedicated to the pursuit of corporate profit over the interests of people and the state itself. There is, of course, a political term to describe that, which is fascism.

What we also do know is that truth is alien to those pursuing this argument. For example, they argue that they need more evidence of the threat from omicron when that is not only readily available but is also profoundly worrying. If the data that we have is not sufficient to persuade them to change their minds then it is very clear that these people have lost touch with reality.

The concern about this comes from the power that this significant grouping has within the governing party. We saw the same broad grouping create havoc over Brexit. We know that the cost of that has been considerable. We are also seeing this group demand measures that oppress migrants; are targeted at protestors; that undermine the freedom of the media; and impose austerity when none is needed. As a result, we can be unambiguously sure that they seek to undermine almost all the ideas on the nature of society that have sustained this country during the lifetimes of almost anyone now living in it. As such they are an unambiguous political threat. Rishi Sunak's threat to impose austerity because of the need for booster vaccinations is just a variation on this theme. The aim is to extract reward for themselves out of a society that they seek to control but in whose interest's they will definitely not govern.

I think that the threat arising from these MPs is very significant. No government can survive forever by relying upon the support of an Opposition, especially when that government is as toxic as the one that we presently have, despite which it is still unable to win the support of its far-right MPs. That at some point a confrontation with the government is inevitable must be certain. What we cannot know is what Johnson will do, if he is still in office. Will he tack to the right? Will he risk a no confidence vote? Will he fail? We quite simply do not know, but what is inevitable is that at some point this fundamental confrontation between the far right and the rest of politics as we know it is going to happen, and I suspect that will be sooner than we realise precisely because that far-right grouping sees coronavirus as the opportunity that they can exploit to achieve power.

My very strong suspicion is that there are those within the Conservative Party, even now, who will resist the far right. Sufficient remain for this divide to precipitate a crisis. I think I am sufficiently confident on that point. What I do not know is what then happens. The reason for that is threefold.

Firstly, quite where Labour stands is uncertain. It is unambiguously the case that the party has shifted very much to the right under Keir Starmer. The difficulty is that we do not know what this means, and nor does anyone else. History suggests that managerialism is impotent against dogma. If only I knew what Labour believed in I might then think that they could represent a bastion against the far-right, but as yet I do not have that confidence.

Second, I am not entirely sure that people will forever stand aside and watch this dispute go on without reacting to it. Quite extraordinarily there has to date been almost no civil unrest in the UK despite the vast numbers of excess deaths that have been suffered by this country as a consequence of misrule. I doubt that this will change, even given the current crisis, excepting one thing, and that is that if the far-right supporters of this group of MPs in parliament decide to take to the streets then I think civil unrest is very unlikely, with no known outcome. I consider the risk that this will happen to be high. I simply cannot imagine the majority in this country sitting aside to let a far-right grouping deeply detached from reality take it over when it is very obvious to most people how utterly irresponsible they are. Civil unrest is incredibly rare in the UK, and I am not promoting it. What I am suggesting is that I think that there is a risk that it might happen.

Third, if anything like this were to happen then I think it very unlikely that people would then demand a restoration of the status quo when that has so obviously failed them for so long. Political disenchantment in the UK is high, simply because the two-party system cannot represent the complexity of peoples' views in a modern society. Despite this it has been maintained by politicians who know its failings but who benefit from its continuation. I really cannot see people tolerating that for a lot longer. If there really is a significant political backlash in the UK against those who are now trying to impose far-right positions upon us then the reaction is going to be against much more than the far-right, but will encompass a reaction to a long history of political failure. I think that people will demand a proper democracy, true representation, better government and governance and accountability for politicians to which they are unaccustomed. All that might, of course, come at the same time that the breakup of the Union is demanded.

That said, none of this might come to pass. The far-right might in the face of the reality of Covid pipe down. But I doubt it, and that means that we might be living in very turbulent as well as difficult times quite soon. 2022 looks like being a difficult year.


Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:

You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.

And if you would like to support this blog you can, here: