Few readers of this blog can be unaware of the video now circulating of Downing Street staff joking last December about the Christmas Party that very obviously took place there on 18 December last year.
For those who have not seen it though, this is it:
I think the inference abundantly clear: the party did take place, those present at this recording thought it a big joke, and rules were very clearly not followed.
Given the severity of Covid rules last Christmas the anger about this is palpable.
As importantly, this is going to cut through. If in doubt, this was broadcast to about 10 million people by Ant & Dec on I'm a Celebrity last night (and no, I did not watch it when first broadcast):
Millions of TV viewers hearing about misadventures in Downing Street without even watching the news... https://t.co/n91cECZj2c
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 7, 2021
I think that this is the third time in a week that they have referred to this issue, in a politicisation that is as surprising as it is welcome.
The key line was 'Evening Prime Minister, for now."
When Ant & Dec come out against corruption and lying, and Laura Kuenssberg has the confidence to tweet them doing so, something is most definitely happening.
I could, of course, be wrong, but I suspect that Boris Johnson's days are now numbered. His credibility is now in tatters. So too is that of those who have defended him. The likelihood that his government will collapse now seems to be high. It is always the lies implicit in the cover-ups that get them.
The important questions to ask in that case are fourfold.
The first is whether this implies that there will be a general election? I think that very unlikely. The Tories are not going to let that happen. There will instead be a new prime minister sometime quite soon, I suspect.
The second question is, then, in whose interests was this leaked? That is harder to answer. The obvious one would be Rishi Sunak, but there is a problem in thinking that. Allegra Stratton, whose reputation is trashed by this, is a close friend of Suinak. She is godmother to his children and her husband was the best man at his wedding. That does not stop this being a pro-Sunak release, but it makes it less likely. So who else? It's hard to tell, but this smells like Gove. I do not think for one minute that he thinks he will be PM as a result. That chance is gone, thankfully, but he destroyed Johnson once before, and I am quite sure that he is willing to do so again.
So, third, is what happens now? I am not convinced that Johnson can make it to Christmas right now. That would most especially be true if Thursday's by-election result goes against the Tories, which interventions like that from Ant & Dec suggest might happen. But then?
This is the fourth issue. Who might succeed Johnson? The Tories love Liz Truss. I doubt that even they are daft enough to think that the country might. She really is not fit for the role.
Of the rest of the Cabinet, only Sunak stands out. But will the Tories have faith in a person so far seen as so close to Johnson, however carefully he has tried to create space between them? And could they overcome their racism? It's a question I hate having to ask, but this is not a party where the membership is known for their open-mindedness, which makes this a factor, however wrong that might be.
Or will they go outside the Cabinet? On backbenches almost as devoid of talent as the Cabinet, only Jeremy Hunt stands out there. He came second to Johnson in 2019. Has his time come? Personally, I think he would be better than Sunak, but that is a very, very low bar.
The reality is that we do not know, barring one thing that is. And that is that the credibility of this administration is now very likely lost for good. I doubt that anything can save Johnson now.
It would also take an exceptional new prime minister to save the Tories, who are now behind Labour in polls. But I am not holding my breath on that one. Labour's ability to keep the Tories in power is almost limitless. And that is part of this deeply depressing scenario that is symptomatic of the failure of politics in the UK.
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Events like this give you a sneaky view of just the sort of people we are governed by.
They are very telling.
Such people are very remote from us, and seem to live in parallel universes.
And the worst thing? This sense of entitlement in the belief that the rules do not apply them and that rules are for ‘little people’.
I think that final paragraph sums things up neatly. The Quockerwodger departing as PM will not lead to things getting better – same horse, different jockey. And Labour, even if it was able to turn around the big majority, doesn’t fill me with any confidence that they could be the government that this country desperately needs.
And that is depressing.
Craig
[…] last night that video emerged. I have speculated that this is part of a leadership bid, but suppose that it is something else? […]
I feel like we’ve been saying this is the final straw, his credibility is shot, time after time for the last 18 months and it doesn’t seem to make more than a temporary percentage point or two loss in the polls. I really hope this is the time it sticks
Johnson has his base who seem to not care whatever he does and this won’t put a dent in that. I’ve already heard a few of my right-leaning acquaintances shrug and say everyone was breaking the rules or making excuses or saying no one cares.
For me the second job scandal was far worse in terms of how angry the conservative base got, and even that only slightly moved the polls and already seems to have been forgotten.
I’m still not really sure who I’d like leading the Conservatives going into the next election. I go back and forth over whether Johnson is a liability or an asset. It’s probably a bit of both. An asset for the newer parts of the Tory electorate where their challengers are Labour, a liability for the areas where the Lib Dems are the main challengers.
Johnson will be fine as all Kier Starmer, our glorious leader of the opposition (and so professional), wants him to do is apologize. The phrase ‘chocolate teapot’ does spring to mind.
‘SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford warned Johnson his [position is] “untenable and he must remove himself from office immediately” if the claims about Number 10 are true’ The National. The real opposition.
For what it is worth, Cummings has allegedly claimed that lobby journalists were at the ‘party’ and therefore keen to keep the whole episode off the front pages. Interesting if Cummings is telling the truth.
The test is the Shropshire by-election. If, and it is a big if, there is a massive swing away from the Tories, the Emperor will have lost his suit of clothes that of making the nasty party an election winner.
My view is that enough will turn out to vote for him, regardless of whatever is thrown at him. One is always reminded of the Trump 5th avenue quote.
“I left early ..” said Allegra Stratton is a metaphor for I didn’t get ratarsed like the rest of you and didn’t get involved in the “misadventures of the evening” they’ve all been gossiping about the last few days”.
Next PM: My money is on Jeremy Hunt. He has been degreasing his Health Secretary [mis]deeds whenever he has a public facing audience.
And the question that comes to my mind is, “why does anyone ever vote for the Conservatives? Come on, tell me why? Farmers, for instance, traditionally very pro- Conservative. Where are they now with the Brexit debacle in terms of lost EU labour, lost EU markets, and laughable one-sided trade deals with the likes of Australia and NZ?
‘Red Wall’ voters who voted for them….what have you gained? The people who surround me in my safe Conservative seat in SE England, relatively prosperous, who seem a pretty straight, hard working bunch. Why do you vote for this corrupt self-serving elite headed by a man who is a shameless liar with an overwhelming sense of entitlement?
Better not to vote at all than to vote for this appalling party.
You didn’t rate Sunak’s chances a while ago. You’re right about racism of course, but the Tories are indeed devoid of talent EXCEPT Sunak who is the epitome of a poster boy statesman AND a totally reliable right wing ideologue untrammelled by sparks of humanity. I think even the Tory membership can see past his colour to those endearing qualities. He competes on ego with Johnson but has sufficient intelligence to be far less gaffe prone. On the other hand Hunt is white! Hmmm!
Who knows?
We are guessing, but that is also called planning and that is always wise
Even the BBC establishment is turning on him. Radio 2 Jeremy Vine show discussing the Christmas not a party issue. The first piece of music they played during the piece – Fleetwood Mac. Tell Me Lies. Class.
However it seems ironic if, after all the disgraceful, dishonest, corrupt behaviour of Johnson he will be sacked because of a relatively minor matter.
It’s always the details that bring them, down.
Although in this case most of the details seem to track back to Carrie Johnson. I can’t remember a spouse playing such a role before now.
Carrie Simmonds – A spouse a few years older than his eldest child. Have to admit, I’m not seeing the power balance in that relationship weighted in her favour. Not to mention the fact that even the most cursory glance over his previous career shows the man is more than capable of mucking things up unaided.
My post to today’s Antivaxxer blog discussion was written before I had read this blog. Now that I’ve read it, this is clearly the better place for it. Apologies for the double post, but here it is (again!).
My view is that Johnson’s days are numbered, possibly in single figures. The fact that the right-wing media are now openly critical and derisory about BJ’s lack of leadership, his mendacity, his inability, his indecisiveness etc, etc (the list is endless) is a clear indicator that the Tories will have to act, as they have done frequently in the past to ensure they stay in power. This likelihood is intensified by the various factions within the Conservative party who sense a change in the air and are fighting to make their voices heard in the febrile atmosphere.
It could be any one of these factions which ultimately cause the 1922 committee to address the critical issue of a vote of no confidence in BJ, but the entire cohort of new Tory MPs must be very afraid of losing their jobs so soon after quitting their previous careers. If it reaches the stage of a 1922 committee vote, they’re going to be tempted to support Boris, so it’s anybody’s guess how it’ll play out. Whatever the outcome of Tory Party internal machinations, I think a vital factor might be public outrage. Why should the Tories be allowed to pick a leader and thus facilitate a government which turns out to be the worst and possibly most unpopular in living memory, then, when it all goes horrendously wrong, they then get to choose another leader without any involvement of the electorate? If they follow this path it will increase the chances of the peoples of the UK taking to the streets. And who could blame them? They’ve had to put up with inept Tory governance under 3 successive PMs and only a fool is going to believe they’ve now got a superstar PM lined up to take over. If they have, where has he/she been hiding since 2009?
It’s the public’s catastrophe that Labour doesn’t look like a clearly better option, but that too is a driver for constitutional change in Scotland, Wales and NI where this mess is widely viewed as an English problem (the numerical supremacy of the English electorate ensures that it is they who decide the government which the devolved nations have to put up with).
Awww…come on, folks. You KNOW Priti Patel would love the keys to the kingdom! Why not just throw the baby out with the bathwater and elect HER?