This tweet was published this morning:
Neil Ferguson on @BBCr4today saying that Omicron is doubling every 2-3 days in the UK - possibly faster than the original strain back in March 2020.
Not sure how that can not be a serious concern.
— Kit Yates (@Kit_Yates_Maths) December 8, 2021
Kit Yates is someone I greatly respect in this area. Neil Ferguson's estimate feels right: many other epidemiologists have suggested that this is likely to be the case. Omicron is spreading very rapidly in the UK, and there is no reason to think it is more benign than Delta.
Rumour had it that despite all its protestations the government was planning an imminent press conference to announce Plan B, introducing Covid lockdown measures.
Then last night that video emerged. I have speculated that this is part of a leadership bid, but suppose that it is something else? Suppose that the anti-vaccine elements in the Tory party, working with Number 10 insiders, decided that this is the moment to work against the interests of the public health of the people of the UK? This they could do by making any new lockdown impossible to enforce. That could be exactly what the timing of the release of this video might be all about.
Never doubt that there are those on the right-wing who would rather people die than promote public health, so distorted is their view of their right to what they think to be liberty, but which is actually their claimed right to impose upon the wellbeing of 0thers.
This might be the best explanation for today's political crisis. If so, the problems that we face are even bigger than I imagined.
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I am getting the “oh shit” vibes I got in March 2020 when I first read Tomas Puyeo’s article a few days after it was published, with a title that speaks for itself – https://tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Here we are again, too little too late.
Omicron is increasing rapidly and there are probably many thousands of undetected cases for reasons explained here. https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-05/covid-why-there-is-much-more-omicron-in-uk-than-official-figures-show (Only gene sequencing 20% of positive tests, in half the centres, and getting results a few days later after cases have doubled again, and population surveys indicate the tests only find perhaps a third of the real infections anyway because many are asymptomatic or don’t get their cough or sniffle checked = times 5 times 2 times 2 time 3 = times 60. And we know there is an undetectable omicron variant without the S gene deletion. We knew about 437 cases yesterday, so the real number might be into the tens of thousands already.)
Masks slow things down, but we know it is not enough to hold back the tide. Tiers didn’t work last Autumn. This time could well be worse: as a country, we start with a high daily load of coronavirus infections which we have been carrying since July. The only hope is that omicron turns out to be less severe, and that vaccines do enough to hold infections down somewhat and keep symptoms mild for the vast majority of people so we have enough hospital capacity to treat those who need it. In the meantime, social distancing has to come back. It is difficult to see how we avoid another lockdown.
And, the UK is blocking a patent waiver at World Trade Organization that will allow countries to look after themselves. And Bill “Sackler” Gates is at the forefront of putting forward solutions that don’t work.
I see nothing wrong with your suggestion.
There are puppeteers at work everywhere it seems.
Am sure you are right to be cynical . The grotesque and murderous aspect is that the anti lockdowners are also opposed to all the mitigation measures which would prevent lockdowns – distancing, monitoring, ventilation, making places safe etc.
Cant rule out direct link to big pharma – viz the patent waiver, and no acceptance that the level of infection globally has to be brought right down if we are to avoid endless mutations.
They have more or less advertised their long term strategy for a one party state – ever since Osborne – dispensing with Johnson now could well suit that aim
The anti-vaxers must have some new Tory leader in mind to take this proposition seriously, other wise your proposition is just a conspiracy theory. The alternative to a leadership election is some sort of coup d’ etat which is not in the British tradition.’
They will have a leader in mind
That does it mean they are being realistic
My view is that Johnson’s days are numbered, possibly in single figures. The fact that the right-wing media are now openly critical and derisory about BJ’s lack of leadership, his mendacity, his inability, his indecisiveness etc, etc (the list is endless) is a clear indicator that the Tories will have to act, as they have done frequently in the past, to ensure they stay in power. This likelihood is intensified by the various factions within the Conservative party who sense a change in the air and are fighting to make their voices heard in the febrile atmosphere.
It could be any one of these factions which ultimately cause the 1922 committee to address the critical issue of a vote of no confidence, but the entire cohort of new Tory MPs must be very afraid of losing their jobs so soon after quitting their previous careers. If it reaches the stage of a 1922 committee vote, the newbies are going to be tempted to support Boris, so it’s anybody’s guess how it’ll play out. Whatever the outcome of Tory Party internal machinations, I think a vital factor might be public outrage. Why should the Tories be allowed to pick a leader and thus facilitate a government which turns out to be the worst and possibly most unpopular in living memory, then, when it all goes horrendously wrong, they get to choose another leader without any involvement of the electorate? If they follow this path it will increase the chances of the peoples of the UK taking to the streets. And who could blame them? They’ve had to put up with inept Tory governance under 3 successive PMs and only a fool is going to believe they’ve now got a superstar PM lined up to take over. If they have, where has he/she been hiding since 2009?
It’s the public’s catastrophe that Labour doesn’t look like a clearly better option, but that too is a driver for constitutional change in Scotland, Wales and NI where this mess is widely viewed as an English problem (the numerical supremacy of the English electorate ensures that it is they who decide the government which the devolved nations have to put up with).
Sorry Richard – you’ll have to explain the framing here. Surely the “anti-vaccine elements” here are the people suggesting that the CV19 vaccines aren’t effective to the extent that they require harsh non-pharmaceutical measures too.
Call then the Covid deniers then
Fair enough. I’m not wanting to deny anything, but there are promising signs that Omicron might be less virulent than previous variants with the rate of hospitalisations in South Africa not rising anywhere near as quickly as they did when cases increased in previous waves. The head of SA’s biggest private health care company said as much – following their Health Minster. Also the ‘super-spreader’ victims in Norway appear to be suffering only mild symptoms. Fingers crossed!
https://mybroadband.co.za/news/trending/426180-omicron-could-be-the-end-of-covid.html
Hospitalisations are a lagged variable.
I’m sorry, but saying that is really not rocket science.
Of course I realise it’s a lagging variable, but you’ll remember that the new symptoms were identified by a doctor in SA before the new variant had been identified. She noticed that they were presenting with milder symptoms in the first place tiredness, mild fever, no loss of tase or smell) – so there has been quite a lag already down there. The piece I linked above has more SA front-line experts noting the milder symptoms of those actually presenting to hospitals (again post-lag) – as well as another saying not to get complacent.
As for Rocket Science – epidemiology is way, way more complicated than that as we’re dealing with complex – possibly THE most complex – of systems. Who knows whether the relatively low hospitalisation rates in SA will last (I hope they do), whether it is repeated else where (I hope they are), what protection vaccines will give us or even if they might actually make things worse.
Look at the evidence more broadly, I suggest. In the unlikely event that a virus has evolved to a milder form such is its scale that it is still going to result in horrible levels of hospitalisation.
The initial data does seem to indicate that Omicron itself might perhaps not be any more dangerous to those infected when vaccination and an immune response from past infection is taken into account.
However, we don’t know yet how things will go in the unvaccinated – the vast majority of whom are children. That’s my biggest concern as I’ve got two young children. One would be vaccinated if it was authorised for the 5-11 age group, the other is much too young. That’s what has surprised me about the narrative in the media so far – breakthrough infections seem to be mild in the vaccinated but unvaccinated adults should get jabbed as soon as humanly possible. Kids, though? Nah – why bother?
The second point is about denominators. Even if breakthrough infections are generally no more dangerous than Delta, Omicron appears to be very much more infectious so a lot more people rapidly becoming infected will lead to a large amount of serious illness which could still push the NHS past breaking point.
I’m guessing they’ll lockdown soon after Christmas, unless the numbers get too terrible before then.
I am surprised you make that claim.
This morning the leading suggestions I am reading say that at least three vaccine doses are likely to be required.
But the point is, given how fast it is spreading even if it is no more virulent (and we will find out) the same percentage of more cases still leads to a massive health crisis
Richard, that’s exactly the point in my final paragraph!
My initial comment was that it doesn’t look as though we need to be more worried about Omicron than Delta for disease severity on a case by case comparison. That was an initial concern (given that Alpha and Delta were more virulent than the original virus) and would have been (even more) disastrous. However, it seems that the faster spread, whether through increased transmissibility or immune response (or both) is what will cause the probable disaster ahead. 2-3 days doubling time is just ridiculous in a highly-vaccinated population and I wouldn’t expect that ‘Plan B’ will make a huge amount of difference to the speed of the spread.
I do hope Johnson does something right for once in his life if the news out of South Africa is worse than it currently appears it may be.
Just a little something extra to add to the pot….
“A flagship vaccine manufacturing centre that has supposedly been at the heart of the government’s efforts to prepare for future pandemics is now up for sale to private pharma firms.
It previously received more than £200 million of public funding.
Several companies have submitted bids for the Vaccine Manufacturing Innovation Centre (Vmic) at Harwell, near Oxford.
The government announced the creation of the Vmic in 2018 to develop and make vaccines as part of efforts to deal with future epidemics.”
https://socialistworker.co.uk/art/52761/Tories+sell+off+vaccine+maker+as+firms+make+%C2%A350%2C000+a+minute
The Tories made a pact with the Devil when Johnson became leader.
The Devil plays hard and cannot be so easily disposed of.
I’ll believe he’s finished when I actually see him walk out of Number 10 for the last time.
His time is not over I’m afraid. It’s going to have to be much worse before he goes.
I tend to agree with you. I can envisage Johnson trying to hang on even after losing a vote of no confidence among Tory MPs.
I don’t totally feel if this statement is connected to the party last year.
I feel, however, that whilst the party is bad, it could be a distraction from the electorate noticing that two controversial bills could be passed: the borders bill and the policing bill
I note that concern
Their atrocities – I use the word with care – continue
I hesitate to pin it on any particular faction but we do seem to be seeing what can only be a genius House of Cards style manoeuvre.
Johnson is shameless and cannot be pressured to resign or leave voluntarily by normal political happenings.
Therefore getting rid of him requires his stock to be driven so low that it is clear that Tory MPs would vote of no confidence him to get rid of him. If this happens we can expect him to be strongly encouraged to resign but, as he is shameless, he could well push it to the vonc.
The rest of the Tories at Westminster hate that kind of naked factionalism so for it to happen there needs to be overwhelming support from both the public and the parliamentary Tory party. It needs to be a done deal.
If Omicron or some other Covid disaster develops to the point where a lockdown is clearly required that puts Johnson in a zugzwang – a position in which every move he can make makes his position worse.
It adds a cherry on top (from the plotters’ perspective) if Johnson has to “cancel Christmas” hot on the heels of this story about him cancelling it for everyone else last year but not giving a toss about himself and his cronies.
So there’s a plot but does that means it’s antivaxxer fanatics?
Could be but I doubt it. I think after Johnson we’ll see a more moderate more centrist Tory party, still to the right of Ken Clarke, but one that wants to move on from the bombast and towards a renaissance of British diplomacy, a veneer of competence, and a Cameronian pretence of reasonableness. Probably headed by Sunak with Cummings quietly recruited to help them win the next election.
(Cummings’ tweets yesterday referencing other illicit parties clearly show he’s a member of the plot).
Now the people involved are really nasty (not least because they’re provoking mass non-compliance in the Omicron covid crisis) but that doesn’t have to mean the outcome will be nasty. They’re powerful invested people who like winning in a party that always re-invents itself to maximise its election prospects and that means that they’re not after a dumb anti-vaxxer posture that few would vote for.