Boris Johnson took to joking recently that he might be prime minister for decades. His deliberate actions to undermine the democratic process suggest that this was not quite the joke he suggested. The reality is, however, different. When his own backbenchers are now openly undermining him in newspapers like The Sun his days are numbered. That he did lose last week also suggests that democracy's day is not quite done, yet. But what is it that will bring him down?
It will not be the Owen Paterson affair.
It may not be the Downing Street flat, although that stench of corruption and naive stupidity around this will not help him.
Instead I think it will be Brexit. The government is threatening Article 16 notice with regard to Northern Ireland. There is, however, no justification for that. The EU has already massively compromised on this issue. The simple reality is that Johnson signed a deal that he refused to believe said what it did. And as a consequence the EU will be entitled to take substantial retaliatory measures. In effect they might say that Brexit is back on the table, and that the deal was not done.
It is entirely possible that 2022 might be a year to renegotiate the whole Brexit deal, not just the Northern Ireland protocol. If that happens, and it seems possible, the weariness with this will be overwhelming. There will be a reaction.
First, most people will be angry that despite his claims Johnson did not get Brexit done. The backlash against his deeply flawed, oven ready deal will be swift and strong. I suspect he will be unseated as a result.
Second, Labour might take the opportunity to move into Brexit opposition. I can't see them arguing for return. But support for a much closer relationship with strong regulatory alignment would be likely.
Third, the public will not want all this for the sake of Northern Ireland. Their indifference to it may be wrong, but the reality is that they are. The popularity of a government elected yo get nine thing done, on which it failed, will be real.
There always have to be tipping points. Johnson has not got to his yet. But I have a feeling it will not be long before he does.
But who comes after that? There may be an election. More likely there would be a lame duck Tory who would be unlikely to emulate John Major and retain power. But which of the non-entities in or out of Cabinet that might be is anyone's guess.
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Gove is not a nonentity. He is the snake in the grass. Silent, menacing, ready to strike out and sink venom into ther body politic. I despise the man, have no respect for him, but acknowledge that he is intelligent, a skilled orator, lethal and with no loyalty except to himself, a kind of Iago to Johnson’s Othello. Whether he would be acceptable to the party is debatable, but he has the intelligence, if not the messianic qualities the Tories would seek. He is to the Tory Party what Mandelson was to Labour. He is (supposedly) Scottish and so appeal to Tory Scotland. At PMQs he would make mincemeat of Starmer and give joy to the back benchers. He has no appeal to Red Wall voters, but does surely have appeal to Red Wall Tory MPs. Gove is the man.
Who else is there? Hunt? Nah. Truss? Hahahaha. Raab redivivus? Hahahaha. Rees Mogg? Languid and pedantic.. Patel? Thick as a plank. Kwarteng? Too intellectual, Etonian, and a black leader would be too much for too many Tory backbenchers and voters. Sunak? Well………maybe.
I think we can already see signs of the new Conservative regime. Rishi Sunak’s carefully cultivated image suggests he is being prepared as a leader. His stance on the deficit suggests he will pivot away from the profligate image of Johnson and we’ll see a combination of austerity and anti-corruption which will contrast with Johnson and appeal to people who feel the Johnson government just spaffed money up the wall.
(Cummings is a shock trooper for this regime change, undermining and briefing against the Johnson govt on Twitter while never saying anything against Sunak).
I think what’s being prepared is for Sunak to swoop in and rescue Brexit. They would love Johnson to push the EU out of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (which it is very reluctant to do) because then they can depose Johnson, hold a leadership race which Sunak will win and make a rather easy deal with the EU (which is a deal-seeking organisation) and claim victory from Johnson’s failure.
That positions the Conservative Party very well for a 2024 General Election if the timing goes right.
I cannot see Sunak winning
I’m not so sure Brexit will be the thing. At least directly. I find it fairly frustrating and baffling that the polling on Brexit still seems at similar levels as it has always been. Which means there is still likely a voting majority that supports the project.
Given the tight control the Pro-Brexit right have over the media we can be confident that any issues with the negotiations will be laid at the EU’s door, no matter the reality of it. The fishing disputes, for example, seem to play directly into their hands. They get to talk tough and whip up their nationalistic base.
It will likely be the indirect effects of Brexit that will see him off. The huge economic impacts that are starting to be felt will get worse and even if half the public won’t see it as a Brexit issue, they won’t care about the cause they will just care that it is effecting them and the Tories will have their scape goat Boris ready to go.
The formula the Tories have hit on is to change leader regularly and then pretend that it’s an entirely new government in charge. New leader arrives saying only they can fix the mess the last lot left behind whilst pretending that they weren’t the last lot.
I fear it might work.
If the Tories carry on as they are with the sleaze, deteriorating Covid situation, near collapse of the NHS over winter, absolutely nothing happening to improve the care service, let alone their pitiful reaction over the climate crisis, their chances of survival are diminishing rapidly. This is on top of the Brexit shambles you point out. It is now time for the opposition parties to “step up to the plate” and hammer home on all these issues.
Frankly I have no idea these days what people hold to be important to them about politics. But you cannot blame them in the Age of Agnotology.
I would not put it past the Tories to have confected the whole episode – creating a seeming crisis – and then making sure that they relented or were seen to be doing the right and decent thing in the end. In many ways, Boris is seen to have seen sense and pulled back because he has listened – so therefore he can’t be all that bad (so the twisted logic goes).
Honestly, I would not put this sort of manipulation beyond them – it’s right up their street and current standard OP – high risk, hi jinx PR.
To paraphrase Gore Vidal, it’s perpetual war for perpetual Tory domination – creating crises to somehow come out of them being seen to do the right thing and saving the day, but also justifying certain behaviours..
What worries me when I see such shenanigans is ‘Why is our attention being diverted by this?; What else are they up to?’.
This mode of presentation also chimes with Tim Snyder’s hypotheses on the development re-Fascist societies where populations are subjected to artificial crises by their Government to merely enhance the standing of that Government .
I’d love to be wrong on this BTW.
As for replacing Boris, although highly unlikely my candidate is definitely Jeremy Hunt – his association with ‘supporting’ the NHS through Covid is something of use to the party and meaningful to the public despite his performance as Health Secretary under Cameron’s disastrous austerity cabinet. Gove is no front of house operator in my view. Why? Because he cannot hide his absolute delight in bamboozling you and everyone else. To me he has become a rather transparent character and therefore untrustworthy.
Remember that memory is the problem we face – remembering who did what and when has we head toward 12 awful years of Tory rule.
I won’t forget – but will everyone else?
PSR – Hunt is my MP and I have tried to engage with him constructively. I have to say that he behaves pretty much like the usual lobby fodder in his voting. Although his replies are polite and prompt they usually follow the party line. As chair of the health committee he asks some of the right questions but is it much more than hand wringing? He co-authored a paper promoting NHS privatisation and choked off NHS spending as health secretary.
So while he might be the least unpleasant of the current options, that’s not saying much.
Election before last, we had an NHS action party stand who was excellent. Dr Louise Irvine. With Compass organising, LibDems and Greens backed her. Hunt has a big majority but Labour centrally would not co-operate and insisted on putting up a candidate. An utter no hoper. Local Labour who wanted to co-operate were actually sacked from the party for doing so. Pathetic.
Well Robin, what a surprise; Hunt mostly a party man and Labour’ mindless tribalism in refusing to form an alliance against him. Idiots.
A competent Leader of the Opposition would have no difficulty scoring the trail of open goals, but I am reminded of one of your commentators suggesting Starmer might actually be an MI5 plant, not in the least outlandish when you consider no one becomes DPP without their stamp of approval. One fact may have escaped your notice, since it was not well publicised. TWENTY THREE Labour MPs ABSTAINED on the Patterson suspension vote. The Tories won by EIGHTEEN. There was no three line whip on the Labour side. THEREFORE STARMER DIRECTLY CONSPIRED WITH JOHNSON!!!! Of course, he is publicly and weakly, as always, accusing the government of corruption, but the reality is what I have just written.
This level of POLITICAL corruption practised by Starmer operates as part of Johnson’s political life support system and is surely a major factor in his likely lifespan as PM. One thing you CAN believe about Starmer is his own claim to be a reliable fellow. He has now dumped every serious policy of the Corbyn era and substituted a no policy on anything approach as an appeal to the red wall. Of course, he is not interested in the red wall, but in reassuring the elite whoch he has done already in spades, as witness ruling out a wealth tax. After all, wealth disparities are good for us all as we bask in the benefits of trickle down.
My previous comment currently awaiting moderation should have said that TWENTY EIGHT Labour MPs abstained on the Patterson vote.
Ever heard of pairing?
And how many were isolating with covid?
The level of Starmer Hate on here is getting very unpleasant.
Is Johnson that vulnerable?
All he has to do is contrive a trade war with the EU and lay the blame on the France and Germany and his Red Wall base will cheer him to the rafters
Sunak sees himself as the PM in waiting I’m sure…. witness his US presidential style performance at the Conservative conference (finger pointing at his “friends” in the audience as he came on stage).
Victor Orban anyone? The longest lasting European politician following the departure of Angela Merkel, is the Boris model. The only danger to Organ is the coalition of opposition parties, which appears to be underway.
So dog whistle politics will I believe keep Boris in power until an effective opposition arrives. Good luck with that I say.
[…] are. Just two will do. One is populism, which is the Brexit narrative. I have already suggested that I think this might fail when it becomes apparent that Johnson did not have an 'oven-ready […]
The main political struggle at the moment is between Johnson and Sunak, with Labour on the sidelines. The Treasury elite understand completely that the UK state is not financially constrained. Sunak will also have grasped the fact and one suspects that it will be dawning on Johnson too, that national debt is an irrelevant statistic. For Sunak this is a source of regret since it makes a big state, which he finds morally repugnant, more feasible. For Johnson it’s a source of relief, since it makes retaining those red wall seats more feasible.
Read more in the editorial of https://labouraffairs.com
Robert Dawkins eloquently articulates above, one of my own particular concerns. When COP26 ends this week, will Johnson be able to successfully switch the focus away from corruption and onto the ‘wicked EU’, thereby dragging us into a full blown Brexit induced dispute that although economically disastrous, might still prove politically favourable, to him?
I also agree with Maggie Downie that there is, on occasion from some contributors, a little too much gratuitous anti-Starmer sniping on here. Many of us loyally supported Corbyn during his era but events, and the Labour Party, have moved on. We elected a new Leader and if the Tories are to be dislodged, Starmer is going to need all the support we can muster, given the hideously arduous challenges that lie before him.
Richard
Mostly spot on as usual. But are you discounting the last refuge ofbthe worst scoundrels (which he certainly qualifies for) which is to declare a (trade) war on the EU by evoking article 16 and not negotiating and blaming them ? He is after all right now sitting in a press conference in COP answering almost entirely questions about and blaming his own MPs ! Interested in your take on that as an outcome especially if that rallies the Mail and Express back behind him
Did you see the press reaction?
They have lost faith in him – even the Telegraph was aggressive