That there might be a time when the anger of people at the suffering imposed upon them by this government might spillover has been a recurring theme on this blog for some a while, both in my comments and in those of regular commentators on it. This morning it looks as though many are beginning to share that opinion. This is the from the front page of the Telegraph today, which makes that suggestion:
The Guardian has the same theme:
It would seem that petrol and diesel shortages, now being seen at BP and Tesco petrol stations, might be the trigger point. There was always going to be such a trigger; this might be it.
The point is, though, that there is no fuel shortage in the UK. There is ample fuel in UK refineries. What there is, yet again, is a breakdown in the supply chain due to a shortage of lorry drivers. And the reason why there is a shortage of lorry drivers is that Brexit and government intransigence has tipped what was already a delicate labour market into crisis.
There is no short term resolution to that crisis. The UK government has decided to alienate and even expel a significant part of a labour force on which the country has relied and has, despite warning being given, chosen to do nothing to ameliorate the situation until it is now too late for anything it might do to relieve that labour shortage. So, like it or not, we do not have the drivers that we need, and nothing can now be done about it.
The consequences are becoming increasingly apparent. Tesco has issued stark warnings about Christmas food shortages, which is something it has always studiously avoided doing until now for the precise reason that it wished to discourage panic buying. Now it knows it has no choice but say that these shortages are beyond its control, even though as is the case with petrol, most of the goods it is unable to sell are prevented from reaching its shelves simply as a consequence of deliberately chosen government policy.
And we are all familiar with shortages in many other areas.
If papers think that people might get angry now I think that they are right to do so. I am well aware that people say they knew there would be problems if they voted for Brexit, but that is not the case. Jacob Rees Mogg suggested that shop prices would fall significantly after Brexit, when they are rising. From Farage onwards, it was said there would never be market disruption as a result of leaving the EU. Those who said otherwise were called 'project fear'.
Except, of course, we were not projecting fear. We were project reality. It was always entirely predictable where this situation would end, which is in the chaos now developing. From the moment Theresa May (whose role in all this should never be forgotten) chose a hard Brexit when there was no need to do so this was likely to happen. And now it has. There is no rocket science to it. And nothing else, from Covid to gas supply disruption (much also due to Brexit) can excuse it: this is a wholly self-inflicted wound that the UK government is imposing on the people of this country.
It has to be said that in the history of fuel supply disruption in the UK this situation unique. We have had disruption because of external supply issues and industrial action, but never before by government choice. And if it does happen that this disruption becomes more serious (and it is almost self-fulfilling that it will now as people panic buy) it will be very hard for the government to deny this, or for people to avoid realising it.
What happens then? I genuinely do not know. But if I was in government I would be making some pretty big contingency plans to control a population who might get very angry very soon, although when the fuel shortage will affect everyone, including those who they might call upon to control anger it's very hard to see what they might really do.
Tipping points happen. This might be one. To be honest, I wish it weren't. People are likely to suffer in all this. And that is never my wish. But in that case I have no choice but to blame it on who is responsible. and that, unambiguously, is our government.
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And this is why they are not going to maintain the extra £20 for Universal Credit – to force people into the labour market by making them poorer and take those jobs that those abroad would have taken.
They’d rather do this than have proper training programmes; they’d rather cut corners on HGV licensing and training than do it properly (HGVs are not cars!).
No plan, no support, no skill upgrading – just get out there and get on with it.
As you say in so many words, the Government are utterly useless to ordinary people.
I agree with your conclusion
Bring back the EU lorry drivers and pay them a decent wage!
But what happens when spurned EU drivers don’t want to return? Surely they will want higher wages so we have price increases. Well done Breitiers!
I can’t see them returning
Grant Shapps suggested on Question Time last night that the UK was able to relax the driving test requirements for HGV drivers in a way that would not have been possible before Brexit. (Can anyone foresee any problems that might possibly arise from allowing any Tom, Dick or Harriett to drive a 40+ ton lump on the public streets with basic checks?)
But is that right? Does the EU set minimum standards for driving tests, and are we going to drop below them? Is there a risk that the EU might say the UK’s shorter and simpler HGV test does not meet EU requirements, so those drivers are unable to drive HGVs in the EU?
I don’t know – but the relaxation is scary, not least by setting a precedent
Barber surgeons, anyone?
Brexit has now been a political reality for more than 5y and the details of the ‘deal’ known for nearly two years. So the shortage of drivers would’ve been quite easy to forecast and Tesco et al could’ve upped wages then to retain drivers and could’ve brought their distribution activities back in-house rather than outsourced.
But they didn’t.
For me what we are seeing is the great reveal – that our economy has been rigged against ordinary working people whose wages & conditions have been kept low because employers could always find a Pole or Romanian to do their job more cheaply or with poorer conditions. The WC weren’t Shirley’s or layabouts (as the Tories alleged) they just wanted good conditions and pay.
The TUC should be calling on all of these workers to unionise rapidly, because at this point in time they have more leverage than they’ve had in 40y and changes now would persist for a generation.
I didn’t vote for Brexit, it was and is a terrible idea, but in this sense it has done us all a favour and shown us how the system which operates in this country was rigged against the working class person.
And you think working people are going to win this winter?
Jacob, I think its great that pay and conditions will (possibly) improve but improved pay/conditions will not increase the pool of labour to draw from. If you have 10000 more truck drivers then thats 10000 less to pick crops. 10000 less to work in care homes. 10000 less to work in hospitals.
How do we solve that?
“But if I was in government I would be making some pretty big contingency plans to control a population who might get very angry very soon”
Surely that is the point of Priti Patel’s legislative clampdown on protests?
It is, as she says it
My plan would revolve around alleviation rather than suppression
To slightly misquote Mandy Rice-Davis
‘Well she would, wouldn’t she?’
Insulate Britain has shown that comparatively small protests can cause major disruptions. The government can pass all the draconian laws they can dream up but this will be completely ineffective when millions turn to protest and direct action when the supermarket shelves empty and the petrol and diesel pumps run dry.