The government published new data on R - the rate of spread of Covid 19 - on Friday.
As they noted:
I was amused by the plain E£nglish interpretations, but they are relevant.
This is what growth rate of 3% means in terms of case growth:
And if growth rate is 6% this is it:
Remember three things. First, R is lagged. In 0thjer words, this is already data that may be two weeks old. Second, cases are understated. My son is in Leeds and undoubtedly has Covid for a second time now. Two lateral flow tests confirm that, but he is isolating and so no one in the NHS knows that. Third, we don't know what the correct growth rate is. Take those, as the government does, as top and bottom figures.
This is a case rate that meets earlier peaks, and soon.
I feel four things. First, that my concerns have been well placed.
Second, that discussion focussing solely on the so-called stage 4 relaxations is so missing the point it is ridiculous. This case growth is happening with those still supposedly in place.
Third, even if this is not as deadly - and I sincerely hope it is not - it could still overwhelm the NHS.
Fourth, all the supposed optimism of the last couple of months has been, as I have always felt, entirely misplaced. So what is the plan? I raised my concerns and made my suggestions here. The deniers poured in to tell me I was wrong. I am not.
On top of that, of course, I am a worried father at present. Why not be? And on this issue I know one thing with certainty. I will be very far from alone in being that right now.
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Best wishes to your son, Richard. I understand how worrying it is to have your children flown from the nest and far away and ill. It may be cold comfort right now, but the statistics show this really is relatively benign for the young (see the numbers I posted the other day).
But there will be a small percentage who are not so lucky. So we want it to be a small percentage of a small number, not hundreds of thousands or millions. We can still overwhelm the NHS with thousands of cases all at once, but that is what unconstrained exponential growth will create.
My real fear is for the substantial fraction (perhaps a fifth to a third) of the vulnerable groups, particularly the aged, who may not be as protected as they have been led to believe.
I can be rational
And I am not a big worrier
But parenthood comes with that built in
He took time to recover last time but did. I am hoping it will be ok this time.
Your fear is well placed
In a society dominated by agnotology – the deliberate placement of dodgy information – it is very hard to learn anything Richard.
According to the Obsessive’s headline today :
‘We’ – the public – are apparently ‘Backing’ BozoTheKillerClownJohnson ….
“ majority of public back Boris Johnson to wait”
I advise we consider that ‘back’ as a gaslighting narrative, suggesting that we are in full support of the PM, the Govt and all their works, words and deeds.
We are apparently satisfied that he has done his best for the public and hasn’t used his lifetime for self enrichment of his ‘class’ and families.
We are trolled into believing he is doing our bidding! And any enforced u-turns and graft by his government and daily walking talking snafus by his masters and minions are NOTHING to do with his absolute saintliness and hunched pound shop Churchillian pose- with a ‘First Lady’ now (we have apparently given him a approved presidential status)
To be clear as you have been saying here and me and others too since late April – the third wave was coming and could be bigger then the first two.
Regardless of what name it was given (foreign obv as it couldn’t be our government’s fault)
As the public absorbs nonstop soft focussed ‘interviews’ and henchmen speak for ‘our President’ in face-to-face leaders meetings – the clown can not be trusted to be in a room with a grown up apparently as he would melt – the nation will be allowed today’s football orgasmatronic day to further super spread the virus in almost every establishment in the country, where for several hours the cabin fevered, Bozo believing public will be able to scream, shout and fill the air with viral particles in the hope that their great party time will not be whippets away from in front of their faces – as the red cape is from a charging bull – Olé.
No one can deny that since March 2020, the pandemic has inflicted great hardship on G7 countries (which includes the UK of course), with over 1.1 million deaths, significant economic losses, and untold personal suffering. However, with the help of $trillions in deficit spending, strict public health measures, and abundant vaccines, by now the G7 as a whole is well on its way to economic recovery and to conquering the pandemic.
That’s really quite a bizarre comment as we hit another wave
Best wishes to your son for a speedy recovery and hopefully, no long term repercussions.
Regards,
Craig
Thanks
I hope your son gets better quickly.
In relation to infection cases being notified to health authorities where a patient is isolating, there are still a couple of routes. One can log the serial numbers of the test strips against a positive result via the NHS app (I think they encourage the logging of all results, but obviously positive results are of greater interest).
I personally use an app from a data tracking group called Zoe – one can log vaccinations, tests, and side-effects via the app. I believe they share their data with Kings College University in London, amongst several other researchers. I’ll not add a link here, so as not to get caught in spam filters, but searching for “zoe study app” on the web should do it (I am not affiliated with them, I just like what they are doing).
Zoe is led by a Professor Tim Spector, and he does a weekly talk-to-camera on YouTube. I tune in periodically as I find his sober analysis reassuring, even if it is not always good news (just watching an item on Delta variant now).
I gather he’s reported via the NHS app
I thought the lateral flow tests were extremely unreliable. Why not have a proper test?
They are unreliable
But they say he has it
And he has all the symptoms
Why expose other people to go and get further proof? What is your logic?
A lab-based test is more reliable, but people either don’t want to wait (convenience) or may worry what would happen to the swabs (trust). It’s probably better that we have some indicators, even if they are not perfect.
The lateral flow tests are inaccurate but do have high specificity
In other words – a negative result doesn’t mean negative, but a positive result can pretty much be read at face value as positive. More than one positive result is close enough to a dead certainty.
If combined with symptoms, the weight of evidence is overwhelming
I hope your son recovers well Richard.
Johan
Thanks
I am quite sure he has it
Now registered as a case
And to relieve my own sense of hopelessness from a distance I am pleased to say Leeds University seem to have been quite helpful – including an emergency food parcel to cover whilst things get organised
So sorry to hear about your son, Richard. I hope he’s soon over this attack and makes a complete recovery.
Wishing you peace, and sending you and your family our love.
Thanks
Richard, Wishing your son well.
Why will the media not point out that if cases are rising at an increasing rate, it implies that current restrictions are too lax? But the media are busier cheerleading superspreader events.
My biggest fear is long COVID in the unvaccinated young. I have seen figures of 8%+, but there are minimal data. Since long COVID is slow to show itself and hard to measure, it is more convenient not to look. But if you look at long COVID, an over-strict oldest first strategy may not be so clever.
Change in case numbers over last 14 days vs the previous 14 days
12/06/21 203.9%
05/06/21 159.4%
29/0521 128.2%
22/05/21 110.9%
15/05/21 93.0%
The figure has been rising since May 18th and you will note that the rate of increase itself is increasing
(figures from the official government website)
So no worse, which is good
Agree on data