This thread on Covid spread by John Burn-Murdoch from the FT, who has always been very reliable on data on this issue - is well worth reading,. and worrying about.
It gives rise to just one question. Why is the government not reacting now?
Worry.
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Here we go – we should really have a break of some instead of letting things develop.
Thanks for sharing FT data analysis. I do have one question, which is about ‘pushing the wave’ into winter. Do people really think that if we let this one rip, there won’t be one in winter. It seems to me that the virus is endemic, and waves occur whenever there is an increase in contact between people. Suppressing the virus now will make no difference to a wave in winter. There will probably be one just because we’re all indoors more. Although, I am hoping winter cases will be more like a flu surge as vast majority of adults will be vaccinated. Although, it would not surprise me if there is another variant with greater vaccine escape and out govt welcomes it into the UK with open arms.
There will be one in winter, come what may….it will be another variant
If you are going to use log charts, you have to use them properly. Which they haven’t here.
Your start point matters. That or you have to normalise your data. A log increase on a population is very different if the starting point is 10,000 or 1.
So this data is actually telling us the vaccinations have been very effective. Deaths haven’t increased and you are only getting an exponential increase in hospitalizations because of the very low base effect – and even then they aren’t climbing as fast as the previous wave.
By using this log data you aren’t even being straightforward. It’s showing hospital admissions including A&E. SO anyone walking in. Most people presenting with Covid do not require significant treatment and do not even spend the night in hospital. Even then, in January there were approx 40k people admitted, and in May…..less than a thousand in total.
A much better indicator would be those requiring critical care. In January, 9600 people were in critical care. In May, 169. In total. That rate is decreasing further in June.
You seem desperate for Covid to continue for as long as possible, along with all the other lockdown fetishists, but the population as a whole and the NHS are not at serious risk of Covid now. It isn’t even in the top 20 cause of deaths any more. Lockdown is likely killing far more people through lack of care for other illness than it is saving now and people should be allowed to return to having normal lives.
You don’t really have an argument left – other than a foolish one of total elimination of Covid. Which is impossible.
I did niot do the data
The FT did
And your claims are false e.g. re admissions
What I can see is you have not read the data and are instead trolling
I suspect you have not a clue about how exponential growth works
And the NHS is very worried about this for a very good reason, which you are dismissing
The likes of you are accountable for the mayhem to come
Sorry Richard but Roger is spot on.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
Acute hospital admissions has been falling steadily till mid May and has stayed static since. No exponential increase.
The FT (or this particular journo) aren’t being honest. The charts he is showing are showing the North West of England only – where there has been a single hotspot in Bolton – and is by far the worst area in the country (other than in Scotland, though the SNP keep that very quiet) by cases per head of population.
The UK as a whole has shown an increase in case numbers but not an exponential one as you and he are claiming. It also coincides with a large increase in testing – which inevitably increases the number of cases found.
Roger is also right that if you are going to show a logarithmic chart, you can’t just superimpose one over the other without normalising the data first. It is very easy to show a log increase in something when it starts from a very small base – which is what is happening currently. Statistically with such a small number trying to claim such an increase is exponential is meaningless, especially when looking at such a short time period.
It’s an old trick to try and force data in this manner. There is no reason to be using log graphs for this comparison, other than to hide the fact that cases now are growing, but by nowhere near as fast a rate as they were in the autumn wave, and coming from a significantly (roughly 40 times) smaller starting point.
At which point, one has to ask the motives of someone who needs to torture the data in this manner? Roger is again right when he says that some people seem unhealthily interested in lockdowns continuing forever. I note you mention 2023 in one of your other blogs before the world is vaccinated. Are you suggesting lockdown till then?
With respect, the FT is being entirely honest and he also very clearly knows data
You are just another of the many of those who want maximum Covid deaths coming on here today
I have deleted most – because they are so obviously trolls. I have blocked you now too for just that reason
The best science available says you are wrong. I am happy with that. And so far you are they guys who have got it all wrong
Well said Richard.
‘Roger and out’ I’d say.
I disagree. Log charts ARE the way to look at things and I think the FT article (I have read the FULL piece) does explore the data in a fair and balanced way.
First, infections are rising exponentially – but not as fast as last autumn. But, the nature of “exponential” means massive infection rates are merely a matter of time.
Second, hospitalisations are rising exponentially, too…. but at a marginally slower rate than infections (and, again, lower than the autumn). But, again, “exponential” is the key – it is just a matter of time before these become unmanageable.
Third, the data on deaths is not rising exponentially…. but may well do soon as it lags the other data….. or it may not if the age of hospital admissions is lower and treatments are better.
If you are rolling down a hill, even if not so steep, you WILL speed up to a dangerous speed unless you DO SOMETHING! How hard is that to understand?
4 or 5 months ago I was more hopeful that vaccinations, lock down, improved track and trace might “do the trick”…… but I always said it was a dangerous balance between the vaccination programme supressing “R” and unlocking raising “R”. Well, my optimism was misplaced…… the evidence is now sufficiently compelling to demand action.
It seems that the world wants to be in email
It is really easy to see the truth
I cannot count how many trolls I have deleted here this morning ng saying the FT data is completely wrong and that independent Sage are idiots etc
If you and I can read it correctly Clive why can’t they? It’s either ignorance or wilful stupidity
Oh my, the covid deniers are out in force aren’t they.
Righto Roger (or Andy, or whatever your name really is…)
In a slight change of thought to my post the pther day – the vaccines are obviously good news. We are seeing a reduction in deaths w.r.t. number of infections, but the link is not broken by any stretch. More, that the conversion rate from infection to death has been reduced (although, also, I’m not sure how the delay between infection and death is going to look in a few weeks’ time).
But this, to my mind, is really where the problem lies, as many people now seem to believe that there is no need for caution any more. So let’s address that, via a couple of points you (Roger) made.
1 – can’t use log scales properly because of a low base/start point matters
Wrong. We’re still seeing a trend of cases doubling ~ every week. Alright, the starting point was less than 10000 (not sure why you picked that number?), but guess how many weeks it will take to get from 1 (1!) to 10000, assuming doubling of cases per week? Somewhere between 14 and 15 weeks. But we’re not at 1 are we? We’re now at 6000-ish. So that’s one more week of cases doubling with current restrictions to see cases rise above 10000. If all covid measures are removed, to use the vernacular, we’re fucked.
2 – Patients needing critical care
You do have a point. But it’s kind of half a point really. Yes, fewer deaths related directly to covid (vaccines complete for at risk populations), but you’re ignoring reality.
That is – if we end up with many more infections (and we will, if nothing is done soon, that’s how exponentials work), then we will end up with significant deaths. A small %age of a very large number is still quite a big number. And that discounts any other side effects such as long covid.
3 – lockdown fetishists
Oh, cock off! Get your head out of your arse and actually look at how disease growth works. If we don’t suppress transmission now, by delaying opening for a few weeks (or even rolling back a little, you know, close the main infection vectors like indoor eating, pubs, schools) then in a few weeks time, we’ll have an absolute catastrophy on our hands. And that’ll take months to sort out. But screw it! Let’s open up now for instant gratification, eh?
I’ll also add this again, because I think it’s worth repeating:
The rate of vaccination is approximately linear (ie we’re vaccinating roughly the same number of people every week), plus we now know that 2 vaccines are required. Plus at least 3 weeks. If we let an exponential growth rip now, it’ll very quickly overtake our linear attempts to provide population immunity via vaccines and we’ll end up with many more unnecessary deaths and people suffering lifelong illness.
So just calm down, accept that we’re in a pandemic, and stop trying to rush back to “normal”. A delay of weeks/a couple of months now will save the whole country a lot of trouble, because if we lock down again it’ll be autumn before we can do anything again! (Exponential decrease takes much longer to decay back to a safe background than growth takes to reach dangerous levels)
How’s that, Roger?
Many thanks
Don’t forget there is also a very positive message there. The FT have done the hard number crunching about the relative numbers of hospital patients unvaccinated, partially vaccinated and fully vaccinated – and come to the conclusion that two doses gives at least 95% protection against serious disease even with the newest variant.
The increase in hospitalisations is driven by the younger unvaccinated population, and possibly increased by their social habits. The imperative is to get vaccinations to them before exponential growth reaches the large numbers which are otherwise predictable, and if the rest of us have a little more hardship waiting for that then so be it.
Happily the worst fears of the scaremongers aren’t yet realised, while new variants are arising they have not yet shown signs of evading protection by vaccination. We can’t know what further variants may appear in the future, so the scientists do need to continuing work identifying the most effective boosting strategies – but most importantly, the world needs to get cases down everywhere so the likelihood of new variants is itself diminished. Vaccines need to get to the developing world in huge numbers.
“Happily the worst fears of the scaremongers aren’t yet realised”
Yet does a lot of work in that sentence Jonathan
Keep your head in the sand – because that is where you seem to have it right now. It has to be said
It’s your gaff so you can delete who you like. At least I have the satisfaction in my first post on here of predicting the alarming epidemiological growth in case +ves that we now have. Those who insisted it was exponential have egg on their faces for not understanding the science.
What amuses me most is you are now Zoe Maths with an S
You can’t even get your name spelt consistently. No wonder you can’t get anything else right
What is it with the covid trolls coming to an tax/accountancy site that they don’t seem to understand compound interest when it comes to infection rates ?
So depressing – these wishful thinking zombies – cap-doffing to govt dog whistle signals, driven by Mail/Express/Telegraph etc & encoded by BBC – ‘everything’s marvellous – onwards and upwards’.
Govt stupidity in doing absolutely nothing to keep infections in check – other than crude date driven roadmap ‘unlocking’ , when it could have been taking action , including providing support for those not able to isolate/test/vaccinate , ventilation for schools and other premises etc etc .
Govt could have been daily headlining case numbers (instead of suppressing data – as with infections in schools) – to focus the whole population’s attention on what really matters – getting cases right down now – so that a more normal economy could then be restored.
Let’s have some actual numbers. Nationally, over 7,500 positive tests today. We last burst up through that level on 3 October.
Hospitalisations have increased slightly in the last few weeks from around 100 per day, like it was for much of last summer, to about 120 or 130 per day. By 3 October, it was 500 per day and increasing to 1,500 per day by the end of October.
Deaths are still bumping along at about 10 per day, like they were for most of last summer. By 3 October, it was 50 per day, and by the end of October it was approaching 300 per day.
Cases are shooting up, and that is clearly a very bad thing. There will be negative health outcomes for an ever-increasing number of people. The very difficult question is whether that is acceptable or not, if hospital cases and deaths stay within reasonable bounds.
If I had a free hand, I’d be ratcheting back some of the unlocking steps to be sure, but we really must wait and see what happens for another few weeks before taking any further unlocking steps.
Thanks
And agreed
Over 8,000 positives reported today, and hospitalisations over 170. This is only going one way.
Exponentially…..
It’s pretty obvious where this is going to go, as you say Richard, the figures don’t lie, and we have two previous waves to draw conclusions from.
I think that many people are in pain and suffering at the moment.
No one wants another lockdown – coming out of the last one has been a horrible, anxious, scary experience for many people, myself included.
Many of us are broken and unwilling to recognise the trauma this has caused to our country and our worldview. So much damage has been done that it will take a decade to even begin to understand the psychological and economic effects.
I worry about the effects on my children, my own inability to socialise as I used to, and the huge amount of pressure my colleagues have felt to keep up their productivity at work whilst navigating so many changes to their lives.
Whilst I agree with your assessment, I honestly want you to be wrong. As so many of the trolls clearly do as well. We still try to hold onto the familiar “normal” because it’s much more comforting than the reality that nothing will ever be the same again.
So don’t take offence that so many people vehemently disagree with you. It would crush many to believe anything else at this point.
Believe me, I would like nothing more than a ‘normal’ summer for so very many reasons, including my concern for people I know, and don’t
But I have no love for reckless optimism and believe a precautionary principle appropriate if we do care, hence my position
I also have no time for neoliberal trolls who as far as I can see simply have no concern at all about others
It would be much easier for me not to care. I argue as I do precisely because I do
I think all the regular commenters here appreciate that you do care a great deal. I don’t think the neoliberal tower built on sand can survive much longer, and work like your own might give us a more positive society in the future. Thanks for your continuing hard work on this.
I received my second dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine this morning. First dose under 40’s were being prioritised – pulled out of each time slot queue and given priority. I haven’t heard this strategy publicly announced but it makes good sense to prioritise at risk groups and the under 40’s are now the at risk group.
How much protection will a single AZ dose give a 40- person? Not much for a few weeks, and not much more thereafter, I expect.
The reason the 60+ population have a significant degree of protection (but by no means 100%) is that they have had the two necessary vaccine doses. Particularly if they were lucky enough to get Pfizer rather than AZ. Even so, COVID deaths are still preponderantly in the older cohorts. But there are lots of 40 and 50 year olds (like me!) who have some weeks to wait for their AZ second dose.
Are you 50+, Chris? Given we know there is a strong age dependence on the effects of the virus, that it takes several weeks for vaccination effect to kick in, and that one dose is not that effective against the delta variant, I suspect a singly-dosed 50+ person might be more at risk than an unvaccinated 40- person.
Using ONS death certificate data, so far in 2021, of the 57,537 people who died with COVID on the death certificate from the week ending 8 January to the week ending 28 May:
* 17 people under the age of 20 (none since the first week of April)
* 80 people in their 20s (only 5 in April and 2 in May)
* 350 people in their 30s. (only 10 in May)
* 1,007 people in their 40s (only 19 in May)
* 3,193 people in their 50s (only 58 in May)
* 6,773 people in the 60s (only 95 in May )
* 12,946 people in their 70s (104 in May)
* 33,171 aged 80+ (194 in May)
Very roughly, it seems to me that a person in their 50s is around 5 to 10 times more vulnerable than someone in their 30s or below.
We won’t know real effectiveness until we have examined the population data following vaccination. AstraZeneca efficacy after one dose appears to be about 33% against the delta variant which is poor and not enough to suppress infection in the population. My understanding is that under 40’s will be given an alternative if available. A single dose of the Pfizer/BionTeCH vaccine also appears to have quite low single dose efficacy at about 33%. Two weeks after a second dose the efficacies rise to about 60% and 88% respectively but that is about 3 months or so away.
https://pharmaceutical-journal.com/article/feature/everything-you-need-to-know-about-covid-19-vaccines#h-adenoviral-vector-vaccines