Three immediate political thoughts occur to me when considering the now very obvious fact that the UK will have a third wave coronavirus crisis.
The first is whether Johnson will react at all? In other words, will data over-rule dates, so guaranteeing that the planned June 21 relaxations will be cancelled?
Second, will Johnson then have the courage to take the further steps very obviously necessary, including travel bans and the reintroduction of many of the bans already relaxed? Will he, in other words, place restrictions on schools, pubs and restaurants as hot spots for transmission, however unpopular that might be?
Third, could he manage the fallout from this? These moves will be intensely unpopular. And Johnson promised there would be no more lockdowns. People believed him. His boosterism has worked in his short term political favour, at least in some parts of the country. He was very obviously wrong. Admitting that now is the necessary price to save tens of thousands more unnecessary deaths. But will he?
There are no obvious answers to these questions, simply because Johnson has proved himself to be so irrational in the face of this pandemic. ‘Following the science' says we would cancel the June 21 relaxations now, so that people know. That is only fair. There is enough data to make the decision now. It is only appropriate that the announcement be made. But I rather strongly suspect it will not be. In fact, I suspect that rather like schools reopened for a day after Christmas, this announcement will be delayed until a day or two after June 21. The promised reopening will happen to preserve Johnson's plan, and then be reversed because of ‘circumstances beyond his control'.
I sincerely hope I an wrong on this. Action to control this outbreak is very clearly needed now. But I am very troubled that so far ministers are still pretending that there is nothing to see when it has been obvious that there has been for some time. We could be too late again.
The later Johnson is the more likely that it is that other required measures, including the effective cancellation of much of the usual entertainment of summer will have to happen. Unless the NHS is to be overwhelmed this is going to be required. It is simply the choice of a lesser of two evils.
Since these events are seemingly inevitable, it being only their timing which is open to speculation, the questions all really hinge on my third issue, which is on how Johnson manages this? He will have to, of course. But we know that like so many who are desperate to be prime minister, decision making is not his strong point. Prevarication is his speciality.
So far, for reasons that baffle me, people have ignored Johnson's responsibility for tens of thousands of unnecessary early deaths. Massive errors in the summer of 2020 and his irresponsibility about Christmas killed many. The evidence in that is unambiguous. He got away with it because of vaccines. But if vaccines do not prevent another Covid outbreak that euphoria - the high from being ‘jabbed' - will burst. And what then?
All bubbles burst. Populism's bubble works by supplying what people are told to believe that they want. I am deliberately assigning a propaganda role to mass media in the populist's cause when saying that. And Johnson has rightly realised people want an end to Covid restrictions. It hardly took rocket science to do so. The desire is entirely understandable. I share it. The problem was in promising what was not within Johnson's control. And that is what he has done.
Can Johnson survive the very obvious evidence that he is not in control, after all? My hunch is that he cannot. The myth that vaccines can completely control this virus will be shattered. So too will the myth that it will go away now be broken. Instead there will be an enormous sense of lost hope. There will be real anger in all likelihood to match that. Populists have to deliver on their simple promises. Johnson will not have done so. And that is unforgivable when playing the politically dishonest game he has pursued, where the lie is everything.
So, I think Johnson knows he is in deep trouble now. He's played the wedding card on Cummings. There is little left in his armoury. All he faces is a stark reality, which is that people know he must act or there will be deaths, and everyone knows you cannot get this wrong three times. But he also knows getting it right is profoundly politically dangerous for him.
What will he decide? This man is a total egotist, apparently devoid of empathy, guilt or conscience. He will, I am sure, choose delay. People like Johnson always think ‘something will turn up'. This time it won't. People will die though. and this time maybe that will, to use the commonplace term, ‘cut through'. It needs to. And if he delays Johnson and his colleagues will then need to be held to account. We have suffered too many politically imposed deaths in this country. I sincerely hope we do not do so again.
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Interesting.
I’d just note that in populism, the notion of ‘shared suffering’ is very strong and acts rather like air air pressure and keeps the rain away if you get my gist?
There is also the issue that this third wave may be not as serious as any of the last in terms of numbers. It would have to be worse in my view to ‘cut through’. My feeling is that it might not be. And I’d be being pretty perverse for me to want it to be worse to make a point – and I’m not.
Have people ignored his culpability? Or is it that they HM Opposition has been too gentlemanly? Had this been a Labour Government it would have been hounded from office by now. And the internet – what stories/’alternative truths’ have it been seeding out there to mislead etc.
Coming out of this there is something more obvious to me. This Government is just a front for much wider, malign and unseen forces (even international) at the helm of this country that will spend its way out of culpability.
Whatever comes next has to tackle the Establishment once and for all.
Well, let’s see. The delta (Indian) variant is perhaps 60% more transmissible than the alpha (Kent) variant, which was about 60% more transmissible than the original virus. So that is about 2.5 times the transmissibility (150% greater). If the R0 of basic virus was about 3, does that make the variant as infectious as say rubella or mumps, but with much higher case fatality?
As to the numbers, infections are drifting up from a baseline of around 2,000 per day through much of April and May to around 3,500 or 4,000 per day. Doubling every couple of weeks perhaps, but I expect that to accelerate as the delta variant establishes itself as the dominant variant in most parts of the UK. We could be up at daily rate of 10,000 or more again in a few weeks, just like September/October 2020.
To put it simply, the measures that could keep the original virus in check were not effective against the alpha (Kent) variant and will be even less effective against the delta (Indian) variant. But we have not been maintaining the measures in recent weeks: we have been dismantling them. We have unlocked too far, too fast, yet again. The UK’s test, track, trace and isolate system has been shown to be woefully inadequate, yet again. As always, acting early and hard is the best countermeasure, and the only one that has worked so far is a full lockdown.
The only possible grain of comfort is the hope (no more than that) that hospitalisations and deaths may not rise as before. They are creeping up from a low baseline, but will they stop at a low enough level? Will the public accept this is the time to let the virus rip? Have we done enough to “flatten the peak”? (For comparison, the daily “28 day” deaths in the week to 14 May were 8+8+8+14+11+4+6=59 but the deaths that week with COVID-19 on the death certificate were 164, so there may be significant underreporting.) Will the non-immunity of many people (a quarter of adults not vaccinated, and almost all the children) and partial immunity of most others due to one or two jabs (somewhere from 30 to 80%) make much difference if prevalence shoots through the roof? And how long does immunity last anyway? We are almost 6 months on from the first vaccinations.
What is the plan to avoid further escape variants and a fourth peak? How do we get out of this deadly cycle?
R0 of the delta variant is estimated at 6 at the moment
Experience emerging from Australia – where they are doing the quarantine of travellers and contact tracing properly, but still it seems have outbreaks of the variants first seen in India, albeit involving tens of people not hundreds or thousands yet – suggests those variants are startlingly infectious, at almost measles levels.
The latest announcement from Australia is that the briefest contact is required for transmission.
If it is thousands of lives versus the inconvenience of delaying the next stage of unlocking, then no question that saving lives must be the priority. As long as the government advisors fulfil their part by monitoring everything in detail up to the planned decision point of 14 June, it is up to Johnson and chums to do what is right — or bottle it.
In the two weeks since the last unlocking point there has been a 50% rise in detected cases in the UK. If over the next two weeks that leads to a similar rise in hospitalisations and later deaths then there should be no question of unlocking further immediately. But if the vaccination programme has done its job — we know it could still need longer — it may be that a realistic option would be to accept a higher number of infections as long as they remain mild.
Government advisors Chris Whitty and Jonathan Van-Tam have told us Covid will become endemic, and they have access to far more detailed scientific data and advice than we do and I really don’t think they are anything but realistically honest. Elimination is a nice idea but it needs global elimination for it to work, and there isn’t a practical route to that. Living with Covid is feasible because of the success of vaccines, but there will need to be strong surveillance to guard against the possibility of a future variant evading immune protection enough to cause a resurgence in severe disease.
The headlines probably answers your question?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/01/uk-facing-perilous-moment-as-indian-covid-variant-spreads
I’ve literally booked a PCR test for my son after two lateral flow tests were positive yesterday. We’ve avoided everything else so far and then suddenly…
Good luck…
My 20 year old had it and it was not fun
He’s fine now though
No symptoms at all – thankfully but two lateral flow tests are positive? So a PCR to check really.
Hopefully the PCR will be negative
It seems to me Starmer has made a terrible mistake in not calling for action on a third wave. He can now wear his Captain Hindsight moniker with pride. Once the numbers start cranking up it will be too late to say anything. He leads an opposition devoid of ideas and credibility. Above all else Johnson must be challenged. Effectively. He will certainly prevaricate. Rafael Behr pointed out that doing so is his mode if decision making. It will lead to more unnecessary deaths. Unfortunately, with an opposition unprepared to oppose, it will be easy for Johnson to escape blame. He has the fawning media in his pocket. The BBC is now completely lost to Tory control. That dreadful term “cut-through” is a weapon in itself. It is used to tell people to end their interest in a story. The BBC and bogroll press will use to ensure the prophecy of no cut-through is fulfilled. Things look very bleak right now.