It is a Sunday morning for connected, but apparently diverse, thoughts.
First, Eurovision. I watched it right through for the first time in many years. The politics of it demanded that I did so. And my hunch was more than rewarded. The UK getting no points was the clearest signal to the UK that Europe could deliver. And let's not pretend it was the song. That was bland, inoffensive and worthy of a position around 15th, I suspect. There were many worse (what was Germany thinking?) But we are now seen as pariahs, and rightly so. No one was going to vote for us.
So much for the much-vaunted political soft power arising from being outside EU membership then. And so much for a profoundly racist border policy now being seen. The English need to get used to being treated with the deserved hostility such things provoke.
Second, there is Cummings, who has confirmed there was a herd immunity policy on Covid last March and September. That should be no great surprise. It was apparent from what Johnson and his adviser team said in March 2020. It was very apparent from actions last September after Sunak's recklessly irresponsible introduction of the Great Barrington Declaration team into Downing Street at that time.
Johnson was happy to let people die. I have no liking for Cummings but I am looking forward to more from him. He has the evidence to prove the lies.
And third, data on the effectiveness against the India variant of the two vaccines now in use in the UK was issued during Eurovision last night. The timing could not have been more cynical. Saturday night is not the moment for such releases. This was news manipulation par excellence. The reason is obvious: the news on Astra Zeneca is pretty grim. It is only 60% effective against the Indian variant whereas Pfizer is 88% so, and most of us have AZ. Sure, it's better than nothing, but that's very bad news. My optimism about a third wave being prevented has not increased.
Add all this together and what do you get? According to one opinion poll this morning the answer is the Tories at 46%, which seems strangely at odds with recent actual poll results. But I would suggest something else. And that is that what we have is something waiting to go wrong.
Brexit is a disaster. Covid is just disguising just how bad things are as yet. That will not last.
The government's Covid management was dire. That message is muted by vaccine euphoria right now. But that may well not last.
And a third wave is possible despite vaccines. I hope not, but I am not optimistic.
And if that happens would 46% popularity survive, or would the Johnson effect come crashing down? I think that the crash will happen.
Oh, and in all this there was some good news. The UK, as a far-right state, got nil points in Eurovision. You can be sure it only made the final because it is a large sponsor. Hungary and Poland, the EU's most right wing states did not get to the final at all. Do I see that as coincidence? No, I don't. The fascists will seek to spin this for their own nationalistic gains. But the truth is that the callous indifference of these governments towards humanity - including large parts of their own populations - is being noticed and Eurovision has always been deeply political. I suggest sense will prevail in the end. I just cannot predict how long and hard the journey to that endpoint might be.
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I am going to show my cards. I like the Eurovision Song Contest and always try to watch it. Bit of fun, bit of entertainment and, occasionally, some songs worth listening to.
Craig
It was mire fun than I expected
I liked Iceland and France
Good morning Richard. Is your brain not frazzled after listening to hours of such terrible music? I refused to watch Eurovision upon reaching my teens. It was definitely totally uncool for a young lad to watch the likes of Mary Hopkin, Lulu and Dana. But the winning songs did get extensive airplay and I do remember many of them. Oh how our jingoistic press used to mock the “pathetic” entries from those “backward” European nations with Terry Wogan taking the piss out of the whole rigmarole.
I’m keen on golf and so I have binged on the US PGA tournament which clashed with Eurovision. I laughed my socks off at “UK NIL POINTS” being repeated 24 times. Yes, despite the British music industry being one of the world’s best, it gets an annual two fingered salute from the rest of Europe because of British hubris and right wing nationalism.
Imagine releasing important health data on a Saturday evening? I received my 2nd AZ vaccine on Friday and am quite worried that I’m only 60% safe. The government’s trumpeting of the “world beating” vaccine roll out, and iis criminal negligence to implement a fit for purpose track and trace system must surely come back to bite hard. Yet the death toll approaches 200k and the Tories are still miles ahead in the polls.
I think that when they are forced to implement another lockdown, and the economic realities of Brexit really kick in, there will be severe social unrest.
Ministers will be running for cover when U.K. will be on every other country’s red list and nobody will be able to take a break in the sun. Shortages of fresh fruit and veg will alienate even more.
It looks like they are going to try to buy off some farmers and fishermen for the loss of their livelihoods which may cause some anger among those communities devastated by the collapse of the mining, metal bashing and manufacturing sectors who were not so well looked after.
We’re in for a rough ride and it’s a real shame that there is no viable political alternative being offered on a UK wide basis. Scotland does have an escape route out of this mess. I earnestly hope we can make use of it.
An independent Scotland, I’m sure, will never end up with NIL POINTS.
I too got my second AZ on Friday
I am not presuming provides me with much immunity
The AZ vaccine should provide very good protection against serious illness which is as much as we could have hoped for from the vaccines a year ago. Perhaps not as good as the Pfizer, but this isn’t absolutely certain. One point is that the response with the AZ vaccine (and possibly the other adenovirus vector ones) appears to improve over time to some degree. The long gap in dosing for the AZ especially means that many of those now fully vaccinated have only been so for a short time. That 60% figure will hopefully rise a little in coming months – not that this would help you if you caught this variant now! In fact, as you almost certainly had the virus last year, you’ll probably have very good protection against symptomatic disease as well. Any of the vaccines seem to give a good boost to those with a pre-existing immune response.
If you’re 60% less likely to have symptomatic illness and then perhaps 90% less likely to be hospitalised if you are symptomatic, your risk is greatly reduced indeed.
I don’t see any need to criticise the vaccination programme which has been extremely well-organised. Thanks to the NHS, of course! Not much to do with the government of the day.
I watched the Eurovision from start to finish and, as I’m unwell at present, entirely sober! That was an experience. I agree that anti-UK sentiment had a good part to play in our ‘nul points’, but our entry was neither here nor there, to be honest. Not going for the novelty vote, not a great performer (I think a better performer could have garnered a few points). That said, I had us as a dead cert for last place due to all that has gone on of late
It will be interesting to see what Cummings can reveal. However, I don’t doubt that the government will just brazen it out and get away with it scot free as they seem to do regardless of their failings at present.
There is an interesting debate now gathering momentum concerning Brand Britannia. The logic used to be that when UK company x took over European company z, the European company changed its name to that of the UK parent. I and others have been advising firms NOT to do this as there are some buyers who regard the UK as toxic (read some material coming out of the Pas de Calais for an education in this). So stick with European camouflage and be very quiet.
Much of this also applies to Commonwealth 2.0, with examples such as the Australian farmer views on the merits of Landrover (none) versus Landcruiser which I enjoyed in a bar in pre Covid days.
“The UK, as a far-right state, got nil points in Eurovision.”
The UK came last in the Eurovision final in 2008.
Were we a far-right state in 2008?
Meanwhile, The Guardian is reporting that “Both the Pfizer and AstraZeneca jabs are highly effective at protecting people from the strain of the Covid-19 virus first found in India, a study by Public Health England (PHE) has found.” The protection when compared to protection against the so-called Kent strain (which is here, has been for a while and isn’t leading to Armageddon) are Pfizer 88% compared to 93%, AZ 60% compared to 66%. I know you want things to go badly, but that doesn’t seem to be what is happening.
Or maybe PHE and The Guardian are far-right and joining in the conspiracy?
I think you may need to adjust your tin foil hat as it’s clearly on too tight.
Most epidemiologists would d3scribe the PHE as an unreliable source
The Guardian published a story clearly not supported by the facts
I am entirely happy with my position
Including on Eurovision
All the vaccines are showing reduced effectiveness against strains other than the Wild-Type and the UK variant B.1.1.7. The effectiveness against the South Africa variant, B.1.35, is reduced to 10% in the case of the AstraZeneca vaccine..
I use the CDC data, the PHE data is far too politically manipulated.
We are dangerously close to the “new vaccines needed” scenario
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-05-12/10-COVID-Scobie-508.pdf
I’ve just read ‘Failures of State’ ( written by the Times journalists – a diversion to recover from Mirowski, before ‘The Road to Mont Perlin’) and they say the same – that the unofficial policy was ALWAYS herd immunity – also pointing out (apparently) that Cummings was extremely concerned about this at the time too when it appears that he attended COBRA meetings when Johnson didn’t.
My only problem with the book is the title . This was not a failure of state as the Time’s Neo-liberal outlook will attest; it has been a failure of the Tory government and its orthodox Neo-liberalism. Johnson and Sunak don’t come out of it well at all – Sunak worse in fact. Sunak is the Marie-Antionette of the the Government’s Covid crisis in my view.
It’s well worth a read – it does sojourn into the odd unnecessary salacious tale about where Johnson has dipped his wick but it does hit home big.
Johnson emerges more and more as a PM who is only where he is because he has made a pact with the bank bench loons in the Tory Party. We have government via the back seat. And boy does it feel and look like it.
Yes – Labour’s fights amongst itself prevent a cogent opposition rescuing the country; but the Tory party’s fights over Covid and BREXIT have caused death, economic blight and suffering. Congratulations.
As for Eurovision I feel sorry for the English muso’s involved. Why did we even bother? The French, Germans, Croatians, Dutch and Italians we know look at us with puzzled faces all of the time. Expect to see the whole thing to be turned into a heroic failure in the vein of Fintan O’Toole.
🙂
I may get that…..
Do – it’s an impassioned plea from an Irishman for the return of the best bits of post war England and O’Toole hits the nail on the head humorously and with compassion. It’s like a letter to an old friend lamenting the friends adoption of a jaundiced point of view.
If you are talking about the pandemic book, then all I can say is that when the book focuses on the failings it does so brilliantly and rationally. It is damning.
PSR
I am reading it at the moment. It finishes in the New Year when deaths were rising faster here than in the rest of Europe. It will interesting to see if there is a sequel which deals with the vaccine rollout.
I hope someone writes the modern version of Keynes books in the 1920s. The Economic Consequences of the Pandemic or even the Consequences of Mr Johnson. (who tries to be like the subject of the original , Winston Churchill ).
Germany I see, only got 3 points in the Eurovision and Spain 9.
See above Ian. The book falls short of calling Johnson a liar as does Peter Oborne, but the facts it presents are so clear, it’s obvious that lying and incompetence are at the heart of this administration.
UK has tried very hard to not only not win – but to put it in risible entries for over a decade. By passing the public selection process nationally of previous decades.
For obvious anti EU brain washing.
Australian farmers are encouraged to increase the already ludicrous Agro-Industrialsm whilst crying crocodile tears over continued Environmental devastation.
We are talking about transporting non native meat and arable products across the planet?
Whilst also expecting similar from a ross the Pond, US hormonised product and South American destruction of the remaining equatorial lungs and heartbeat of the weather cycles. Offal innit!
There is more, much more , including the record crowds who turnedd out for Palestinians; political prisoner Assange; the petty patel continuing the centuries long role of overseers of the EIC and Raj tax collectors…
But why ruin the rest of Sunday! I’m off to get some bell ng practice in for a couple of months on the green.
Like you I have had two doses of the AZ vaccine, but in my case I have the benefit of two weeks for immunity to continue to develop. I am not sure why you are quite so sceptical (though you are right to be taking other precautions against infection): the data released today shows both vaccines have a similar 85-90% protection against symptomatic disease after the second dose.
There is less confidence about the figure for AZ compared with Pfizer, but that isn’t an issue with the vaccine. It is that the AZ vaccine only started being used at the end of January so there is only a few weeks of data for people who have had both doses plus that 2 week interval – and that was at a time when lockdown had much reduced cases so there are too few numbers for more statistical confidence.
While you may not like PHE no-one else has better comprehensive data, others are either using the same data which is (as it should be) made publicly available or basing conclusions on small samples.
Fun as it is to treat Eurovision as a proxy for European politics and the reduced status of the UK, in reality whoever submits the British entrant treats the spectacle as the pantomime it is and finds someone able to play the part of a villain for everyone to hiss at. They clearly pass over all the available musicians who might have provided a performance to admire.
The editor of the very well respected Health Services Journal called PHE an unreliable source today.
They have not released data on schools
The data released has been delayed by No 10 and I think you give it an optimistic reading
I am not questioning the scientists
I think PHE’s leadership is cowering to politicians and is plying to their eugenic agenda
They are failing us as a result
Figure 3.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest
This is not the PHE data
It is fair to complain when PHE fail to release data simply because the government wants to avoid embarassment. But that doesn’t mean there is anything wrong with the data they do collect and publish.
The much bigger problem is that PHE was a Conservative creation resulting from Lansley’s tenure as Health Secretary, creating a slimmed down centralised unit which replaced the previous excellent regional network linked in to grass roots healthcare provision. It has now got lost in the noise, but I suspect that change directly contributed to the poor handling of the first wave of Covid in the UK. At the time it was noticed that Germany seemed to manage much better because of their well organised public health system – ours used to be equally good and would have been expected to monitor and coordinate action on the ground in the same way.
Sorry Jonathan, but a great many epidemiologists disagree with you. If data is supplied late, or is incomplete then it can be misleading in itself. And that is happening.
I agree your second point, but it is related to the first. PHE is a construct to serve the interests of this government.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/18/deaths-now-20-per-cent-five-year-average-england/amp/
The vaccine is working!!! Why does that makes you so unhappy?
Because I understand how exponential growth works and you clearly don’t
With it everything seems fine until it suddenly isn’t
I think most people have no idea of how exponential growth works.
Many years ago when I used to give courses on algorithmic complexity I would tell the legendary story of the invention of chess where the king agrees to reward the inventor with one grain of wheat for the first square of the board, two for the second, and so on until the last square, doubling the number each time. I would then ask the class if they could guess, without doing any calculations, how much wheat the inventor would receive.
Even those who thought it would be rather a lot came nowhere near the actual answer which is about 1.4 trillion metric tonnes, over 2,000 times the world’s annual production.
And that is the the issue here – the problem looks to be insignificant until it very definitely is not
If we don’t get judged fairly in Eurovision there’s not much hope in the upcoming Euro football comp.
EU refs will be awarding penalties against England for handball even if it’s the goalkeeper who’s touched it! All England goals will be ruled out for offside unless the ball is kicked from the England half!
Actually I don’t believe there was any political influence in the EV judging and neither will there be in the football refereeing. It’s rather a slight on our EU friends to suggest otherwise.
Again, please get real
Just look at the voting at Eurovision – it is intensely political. Did you watch Greece and Cyprus?
OK. Maybe I should have said no more political interference than usual. The Greeks and Cypriots have always voted for each other so that’s nothing to do with Brexit.
In any case, we shouldn’t confuse the EU with organisations like Eurovision and UEFA. I had to explain all that surprisingly often when canvassing during the referendum. I did have to say to one young lady that she should think up a better reason for voting leave than being disgruntled at the level of Eurovision votes from France and Germany. I wasn’t sure if she was being serious or just winding me up!
We should leave these kinds of arguments to the Daily Mail! They are really Leaver arguments. If we had picked up votes from non EU countries like Ukraine, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Serbia and Azerbaijan but none from the EU countries you might have had a case. As it is we should give the EU countries the benefit of the doubt and take it on the chin. We had a crap song and no-one liked it enough to vote for it.
Sorry Tom, but I really do think you are wrong and that the issue is real, and one very definitely reflected in both jury and popular votes.
I also think it entirely appropriate to take note of it.
Why not? Do you like feeling disliked?
I cant understand why people keep attributing our Eurovision failures to political hatred. As someone has already said UK is a country good at writing songs but his song was way below what the UK is capable of and his performance was dull. He might be a nice man with a winning smile but he cant sing.
I think he wrote the song so maybe it is our choice far more than any political hatred. We had a Eurovision party here in Scotland and opinion was split 6 had him at the bottom and 2 at the top.
Ob come on, Eurovision is glaringly obviously political and always has been
I can’t believe your reading so much into the Eurovision, very few take it seriously. If you are so wrapped up in it you need to get out more..
Spot on as usual Richard. Many of us in Scotland have been saying much the same. Eurovision was and is far more about politics than the music. I only disagree with one point. That is that the UK only made the finals just so Europe could slap them down just to make a point. That’s my reading of what happened. Others disagree but certainly that is what it looked like to me.
No, we get there by right as a big sponsor
We do not go through the qualifying stage
As one of the so-called Big Five financial contributors to the European Broadcasting Union, along with Germany, France, Italy and Spain, the UK automatically qualifies for the Eurovision final every year.
https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works
As a mixed nationality couple that has spent well over fifty years NOT waving our respective flags around, we applaud your openness in calling the U.K. a pariah state. The racism of our immigration policy receives widespread publicity throughout Europe and, alone, merits that status. Almost half the electorate appears very happy with that and sadly, I do not believe that the advent of the economic realities of that status will do anything other than redouble the bilious English nationalism that underpins it. The disintegration of the U.K. is earnestly to be sought.
While political voting does happen at Eurovision, I don’t think there are many people (if any!) that go, “This song is great, but I will not vote for it because it is by a country I wish to punish for its politics!”
I only have a small sample size of my family and friends in Austria, but mostly people don’t care very much about the UK leaving the EU, not enough to interfere with important things like Eurovision, at least
The British entry was just lacklustre and his final performance was very poor. You can be a bad singer, or have a bad song, or have boring stage, but not all 3.
I have just finished reading Michel Barnier’s Brexit diaries in French and what comes through repeatedly is how astonished he was at the unpreparedness and ignorance of the British politicians ( apart from Dominic Grieve and Hilary Benn) he met, he tellingly notes that he greatly admired the British Civil servants (apart from Frost) who he says he did not envy as they had to work for a political class who refused to take responsibility for the consequences of their decisions on leaving the EU
I believe him
As a middling level civil servant myself, I find that to be very true. There are many very high calibre people in the UK Civil Service at many levels; a pity their qualities as people are not matched by the rancid rabble now in power. A rabble who, judging by the attitude of people like Patel, attack and belittle these self same civil servants due to their own lack of ability, honesty and competence.
Frost, as you say is the exception.
Yes, not only refusing to take responsibility for the consequences, but refusing to understand what the consequences were and are. But it is the smug stupidity of the UK politicians that comes through stunningly clearly. I tried to think who on the UK side of this debacle could have written such a book, and can’t imagine anyone with the intelligence or insight.
It did seem very likely that the UK would get nul points!
On Cummings and herd immunity, it’s interesting that it was Cummings who was reported in March last year as allegedly in February having supported the government approach of “herd immunity, protect the economy and if that means some pensioners die, too bad”, though he strongly denied it when it was reported. https://www.theweek.co.uk/daily-briefing/106281/ten-things-you-need-to-know-today-sunday-22-mar-2020
It’s reported that weeks later he realised that this would lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths. “The late-stage change of mind was supposedly branded as the “Domoscene conversion”. ” https://www.thenational.scot/news/18325353.cummings-protect-economy-pensioners-die-too-bad/