I have often been baffled by the claim that the so-called ‘Red Wall seats' in the north of England are so very different from the rest of the UK when it comes to social attitudes. It's been a feeling that matters. Labour, in particular, has tacked hard right to follow the rightward trend in the Brexit / Conservative Party as if this prevailing narrative is the dominant one in large parts of the country. The cost has been significant.
YouGov has now done a survey on social trends in the Red Wall. It makes interesting reading.
In summary what it finds is that on most issues the Red Wall is a little more conservative (small c) than the rest of the UK, but nor materially so, Brexit and migration apart. Across the UK as a whole only 41% believe the UK was right to leave the EU. In the Red Wall it remains 50%. But move on from that and things are different.
So, for example, on the supposedly ultra woke question that asked if ‘It is important to teach school children about Britain's colonial history and its role in the slave trade' 78% in the UK as a whole agreed and 73% did in the Red Wall. Disagreement was just 4% and 6% respectively.
Again, on the question as to whether ‘Having a wide variety of different ethnic backgrounds and cultures is part of British culture' 54% agreed across the UK and 50% did in the Red Wall. Disagreement was 27% and 31% respectively.
Follow the link and you will find the trend follows, including on issues such as transgender rights, where almost equal numbers support them (and oppose them, come to that).
Immigration does reveal differences, but less than I expected.
So what is happening? I am not pretending there aren't differences on display: there are. But they are not, overall, that significant. Majorities are usually consistent (even notably consistent) with the UK as a whole, Brexit and maybe migration apart. In particular, there are felt to be greater tensions arising from migration in Red Wall seats than elsewhere even when other areas often have larger populations from minority ethnic groups.
I am not claiming superior insight here. I am just, like anyone else, making informed guesses. But that informed guess is that the divide being seen is quite definitely not about woke / non or anti-woke issues. The government has it wrong to play that card. As ever the real divide is economic. The Red Wall did lose under Labour. It has lost as much, and maybe more under many Tory governments, but the Red Wall now think that the Tory plan for recovery is better.
Not that there is one. Levelling up is just meaningless jargon without any plan for delivery right now.
So what is needed? It is not a tack to the right. Nor is it to be anti-woke. What is required is a decent plan for jobs. Right now the only one there is happens to be the Green New Deal. But until Labour gets on and commits to it then it will remain in the wilderness. It is one that increasingly looks to be if its own making.
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Thank you. This is exactly my feeling too.
Those advocating a move to the Right in Labour totally miss the point here. They think that if they gain the trust of the small percentage of those who support BREXIT etc., then Labour’s fortunes will change. They want to fight the Tories in those small margins.
It’s a load of old rhubarb.
It’s obvious to me what happened in Hartlepool and elsewhere. Labour needs to go back to its post war roots (Attlee’s determination to deliver something REALLY better) and add a bit of Murphian courageousness updated with reality based MMT and tax and BINGO – there might be an offer that those who did not vote go for.
What ever happened to that aspect of politics – inspiring people to take part rather than spending time trying to work out how to win over a dwindling electorate?
I’ve certainly had enough of what Tim Snyder calls ‘inevitability politics’. Cos’ that all Labour and the Tories can deliver at the moment.
On the ‘woke’ topic, the rightwing in the UK is linked to the US right wing and in the US culture wars have been successful for the Republican Party. Make everyone believe that the ‘progressive’ guy is going to give money to marginalized people and leave you out, and public is persuaded to vote right. The whole anti-woke thing (and anti-university) is all about stoking up a UK culture war to bolster the political fortunes of the Tory party. Although why they think they need to work so hard given the woeful state of the Labour party is beyond me. Perhaps they are worried that people will at some point recognize how impoverished they are and take it out on the Tories.
The real danger that the Tories perceive is a revival of a radical offering of the kind presented by Labour at the 2017 general election.
Under Starmer’s regime – I will not commit the error of calling it a leadership – Labour is a safe, familiar creature. The promised policy review ( the latest in a long line of talking shops) will produce an anodyne document of little import, continuing the potentially fatal decline of Labour.
Unfortunately, most reasonable people want to see meaningful change and a viable post- Thatcherite, post neoliberal future for the country. That would include the Green New Deal.
But the ease with which the Green Party is happy to cohabit with the Tories in some local councils suggests that they are not the serious option they would like to think they are.
We really do need a serious and vigorous social democratic option to replace the current lot.
Is that a dig at the Lancaster Greens there Karl?
From what I hear on the grapevine, Caroline Jackson attributes her success in becoming Lancaster council leader more to the Eco Socialists, who split from Labour, than the Conservatives. Obviously the Conservative vote secured her place, but I don’t think (I hope) that the accusation of cohabiting with the Conservatives will be borne out by the Greens’ actions.
So do I
The big worry with Labour is that they’ll listen Mangle-son (sic) and compete with the Tories on a Tory agenda just like people like Paul Embery also suggest (in his book ‘Despised’).
I keep hearing time and time again from these short sighted Labour types that ‘Britain is a naturally Tory country’ and that they need to mirror that in their offering.
I think that is bullshit. It’s just giving up on people who are crying out for something different. Labour’s popularity in say 2017 is worth noting (yes – we know what happened next). I was at a Radiohead concert in Manchester in July 2018 and the group broke out into ‘ Oooh Jeremy Corbyn’ and the crowd cheered and went with it. This is not a ‘naturally Tory country’ at all – it has a lot of anti-Tory attitudes that are repressed because of a lack of a genuine offer.
I like the sound of these Eco-socialists in Lancaster. That to my mind is what Labour should do – Split. At least the progressives can get rid of the sea-anchor that is Blue Labour who are nothing but Tories but with a bit more of conscience and nothing else.
You know, has any modern politician who has taken something away from voters or been present when it has happened ever made a commitment to restore it? That would be a huge message to the voter – even better if it were under pinned by a sound knowledge of MMT and tax.
We’ve had year after year of loss for far too long and people are not stupid – many can see this. Many can see that privatisation has made services more expensive as it is helping the rich to maintain the value of their excess cash.
Considering that approximately one third did not vote. Has any one asked why and what would get them to vote?
Precisely.
As someone who actually lives in the North, maybe I can add my tuppence worth. I’ve often been told by voters, when canvassing for Labour, that they haven’t moved away from the party but the party has moved away from them, albeit mainly the older ones. The younger generation are very apathetic indeed and it is difficult to get them to engage at all. My local university is no longer adorned with numerous left wing political posters and painted slogans that many of us might remember from our own younger days.
So whilst agreeing that economics is important and so is the provision of well paid jobs, there does seem to be a general shift in sentiment that cannot be easily explained. We see Labour winning a few seats in very unlikely places like Putney and Canterbury but losing a lot more in the former red wall.
It looks like we are entering an era when voting patterns are starting to be defined more by one’s sense of National identity than class interests. It has always been like this in Northern Ireland, it has been the same in Scotland for at least the last 20 years, and it is now happening in England too. The Tories have redefined themselves more as an English National Party than a Tory / Unionist party. This newer look is more appealing to what was the traditional Labour vote. They may not actually bring themselves to vote for them but they are much more likely to not vote against them by staying at home.
The big concern is the level of voter apathy. The turn out in the Hartlepool bye election was only 42% So 58% of the electorate couldn’t find a single candidate, out of the 16 on offer, they wanted to support. Jeremy Corbyn might have had his faults but at least he had the younger generation chanting his name at Glastonbury. That’s unlikely to ever happen with Sir Keir Starmer.
I don’t think Labour needs to ape the Conservatives to win a general election, but I do think they need to find a simple and attractive message.
But that does not mean recapitulating the campaign of 2017 or 2019. That would just lead to another election loss.
Most importantly, they need to get out the vote particularly the young, and avoid splitting the opposition vote with other parties. Get the Tories out. Their authoritarian nationalist tendencies, lie and corruption, must be booted out. I can’t remember a time when I was quite so fearful about the direction the UK is taking.
I’m with you Andrerw
Seems to me that the real question for all those former coal miners, ship builders and steel workers to honestly answer is “What’s the Labour Party ever done for us”.
We do know that many former Labour politicians have done very nicely for themselves; perhaps that’s what they mean by social mobility