As The Independent reported yesterday:
Another surge in coronavirus cases in the UK is inevitable and could hit in late summer, despite the success of the country's ongoing vaccine rollout, MPs have been told.
Professor Chris Whitty, England's chief medical officer, said that even under the most optimistic set of assumptions, a further 30,000 lives could be lost to Covid-19, as he warned against the dangers of lifting restrictions too quickly.
Modelling suggests “that at some point we will get a surge in virus”, he told the Science and Technology Select Committee.
Four thoughts.
First, it is good to have someone try to tell something like the truth. This is what the NHS is expecting.
Second, as he warned, this could also be sooner and bigger unless great care is taken, and right now there are few indications that this care is going to be taken.
Third, all those who are confidently predicting economic recovery on the basis that this crisis is over need take note: it is not, and I suspect not by a long way. Unfortunately, there are no apparent economic contingency plans that recognise that.
Fourth, for those who say this is just like flu, no it is not. First, there are actually remarkably few deaths attributed by doctors to flu. That data is retrospectively engineered to suggest a commonality amongst other peaks in deaths revealed by data.
And, such deaths do not happen in summer.
In addition, what flu deaths have is a very common association with deprivation, so the indifference and even casual acceptance of flu deaths reveals a similarly casual indifference to the consequences of poverty and austerity.
And, the predicted deaths are on top of the enormous number that have already happened and despite measures already taken. This is not in any sense normal in that case.
So what describes the events that are going to happen, with what the CMO thinks a fairly high degree of probability in that case? Would a democide be an appropriate term? It seems to be so to me. After all, these are chosen, and innocent, deaths that are the apparently foreseeable consequence of government policy. What other term might be used to describe them?
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
Obviously Boris knows that there is a core of austerity created hard bitten, hopeless people who will applaud his every move and vote for him in 2024. Because they won’t expect anything better .
In the City where I work, I’ve watched road sweepers and the like clean the high value areas during Covid and seen the neglect in the areas where there are more ethnic minorities and immigrants. It’s shocking to be honest but also so glaringly obvious.
What happened to modernity? Everything seems to be going backwards and I’m damn sure it’s not just my age talking.
“Fourth, for those who say this is just like flu, no it is not. First, there are actually remarkably few deaths attributed by doctors to flu. That data is retrospectively engineered to suggest a commonality amongst other peaks in deaths revealed by data.”
This is a HUGE lie.
A large amount of deaths annually are attributed by Doctors to flu.
The data is not engineered, by which you are trying to make it sound like it is falsified. Lots of data is collected at all levels and collated by Public Health England, and has been for years.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsduetocovid19comparedwithdeathsfrominfluenzaandpneumonia
Table 5 in the Excel spreadsheet from the second link I provide shows annual flu deaths.
I’m not sure why you would put such obvious misinformation out publicly, but the tone of your article makes me think you are doing it on purpose and knowingly. Which makes what you have said all the more disgusting.
Flu is rarely on a death certificate, I am reliably informed
So my claim is correct
There is data
It is generated in the way I suggest
Not sure who is informing you, but they are wrong.
Flu is registered on death certificates when it is a cause or contributing factor to death.
Moreover, thanks to various different testing schemes, there is good information regarding the specific characterisation and virology.
There is indeed data, and it shows that significant numbers of people die of the flu every year.
“It is generated in the way I suggest”
As far as I can tell, you are suggesting that data on flu deaths is being made up or falsified. Is that the case?
I am saying other causes of death are given and these are used to imply flu
Pneumonia is the most obvious case
A death from Pneumonia caused by the flu still has the flu as an underlying cause of death and will be reported as such on the death certificate.
There are a series of ICD-10 codes for exactly this. Thanks to the fact that influenza is tested for in almost all swabs flu is one of the most easily diagnosed and certified causes of death.
COVID deaths are treated in he same manner. Or are you saying that nobody dies of COVID either – because ultimately most COVID deaths are not caused by the virus itself.
So, I say again. To claim that nobody dies of the flu is an outright lie. You are making things up as you go along and what you have made up is utterly false.
I am making a wholly comprehensible claim
And I am suggesting the data is engineered from other information.
I am told (and I rely in others) that flu is nit a commonly recorded cause of death
Pneumonia is
Even the stats you quote link the two
Then the two are related and claims in flu are made
But I asked other questions, and wholly unsurprisingly you ignored them. Typical troll method
Your claim was, and I quote:
“Fourth, for those who say this is just like flu, no it is not. First, there are actually remarkably few deaths attributed by doctors to flu. That data is retrospectively engineered to suggest a commonality amongst other peaks in deaths revealed by data.”
The data for Flu deaths is compiled in a very similar way to that for COVID deaths.
By your argument, people don’t die of the flu, they die of pneumonia caused by the flu. Which is somehow different to pneumonia caused by COVID, which is the main cause of death in COVID cases, but by your logic is attributable to COVID.
Either way, your whole argument regarding the flu not causing deaths relies on separating the underlying cause of death from the final cause of death, so flu deaths would not be recorded as such.
Which is stupid and ridiculous. More so in the face of the data which shows deaths for flu in comparable terms to deaths from COVID – and the average for flu deaths is something like 25,000 a year.
Yet you, disgustingly, are claiming that there are none, to suit some twisted argument of your own fantasy.
So I have a choice
I believe you
Or someone (actually, more than someone) who I think knows what they are talking about
Not sure who is telling you what, but every patient presenting with suspected pneumonia will have one or more tests to confirm the cause – blood, sputum or pleural fluid. Mostly because it’s the easiest way to determine treatment of the viral infection if it is the case.
Which means that almost everyone (it’s something like 99%) who dies of pneumonia will have had such a test, which will come back with the infecting pathogen. So in almost all cases the cause and underlying cause of death are known, and not only will the flu go on the death certificate but probably the particular strain.
Guessing whoever told you is not a Doctor, or if they are, hasn’t practiced as one for a decade or more. Sentinel and USISS have been around for ages. Someone who writes death certs would know about them. Or should. Or if they don’t, probably should be struck off.
See the reply by Andrew
My observation was factual, confirmed by the stats
Shall we stop wasting time discussing this?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsfrominfluenzaandpneumonia20152020
To pick a line, from “Mortality statistics – underlying cause, sex and age, England and Wales” in 2019 (and apologies if the formatting does not work):
Deaths from all causes : 529,553
J09-J18 Influenza and Pneumonia : 26,342
J09-J11 Influenza : 1,213
J12-J18 Pneumonia : 25,129
Perhaps a fair amount of the pneumonia might be influenza, but it might be other things too.
Andrew
Thank you for confirming the accuracy of what I have been told
I think I know who I believe
Richard
I’m not a doctor or an epidemiologist, just someone who reads and thinks, and I’m entirely open to being corrected by someone who can explain why “influenza” is noted as an underlying cause of death so infrequently compared to pneumonia. Perhaps Mariella or Shaun could set out their credentials and explain.
But before someone says all of the pneumonia is due to influenza, I’ll just mention this study – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4728150/ – which investigated over 2,000 people presenting with pneumonia at five hospitals in Chicago and Nashville in 2010 to 2012. From the panel of samples – sputum, nasal and throat swabs, urine, blood, etc – no specific pathogen was detected in 62% of cases. The other 38% was composed of: 23% with one or more viruses, 11% bacteria, 3% bacteria and viruses, and 1% fungal or mycobacterial pathogens. The most common pathogen was human rhinovirus – the common cold – for 9%, and then influenza for 6% and Streptococcus pneumoniae for 5%.
Worth reading this guy on this
https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/aboutus/people/mckee.martin
My arguments are based on his work
Andrew
The ICD codes you have specified are the pneumonia codes related to influenza, influenza like or suspected influenza cases. Almost all patients who die of influenza or related, die ultimately of pneumonia. The few who don’t typically die of gastric flu.
Codes J12-J18 are always preceded by the J09-11 codes, apart from J17. Fortunately we don’t get much Salmonella or Anthrax in the UK, and chlamydial pneumonia is pretty rare. I’ve never seen a J17 code.
You’ll note that this exudes all the other codes for pneumonia. I.e. the one not caused by the flu and related.
So you could argue that the flu on killed 1213 people in 2019, because only in that number of cases was it the primary cause of death. But it was a major or leading contributory factor in the other 25129. And it will be on the death certificate of all those people.
To make this comparable to COVID statistics, by Murphy’s logic you would have to remove from the COVID mortality statistics the people who died where COVID was a contributory factor (60% or so from memory). Plus adjust down again for the 90% or so of patients who had other serious underlying conditions, but COVID goes to the top of the tree (where flu does not). Plus adjust down for the dumb 28 day rule, which you don’t have for the flu.
So what are you saying?
I could easily present the argument saying that if flu doesn’t kill, but it does causes pneumonia which does the actual killing instead, then COVID doesn’t kill either. It just causes a selection of respiratory failures or pneumonia, which does the deed.
But that of course would be stupid. Which brings me back to my point, and I’m in total agreement with Mariella here – what Murphy has said is wrong, idiotic and actively dangerous. If flu kills barely anyone, why bother getting vaccinated for it?
The flu does kill a lot of people every year. It has done since time immemorial. But according to some know it all from his sofa, flu barely kills anyone and the data is systematically falsified by the hundreds and thousands of Doctors who have to sign off the death certificates.
I’ll stop here, but anyone making claims like Murphy has is basically the lowest of the low. It just goes to show Doctors can treat almost anything, but can’t treat stupid.
This is risible
You have claimed ‘but every patient presenting with suspected pneumonia will have one or more tests to confirm the cause — blood, sputum or pleural fluid. Mostly because it’s the easiest way to determine treatment of the viral infection if it is the case.
Which means that almost everyone (it’s something like 99%) who dies of pneumonia will have had such a test’
I showed this to a GP and they laughed themselves silly – this may be true in hposip[taos, but people don’t die of flu in hospitals. Most die at home and they have not had those tests.
You are, I think, wrong
And if you are a doctor (which I doubt) you have no idea what happens outside hospitals
Yes. Most people who die of pneumonia will have had bloods or other fluids tested. Plus more than likely a chest X-ray. Because most people who die of pneumonia have a severe enough case to warrant hospital admission.
Am surprised your GP friend doesn’t seem to know this. Mild cases get treated by GPs, serious cases end up on the wards. And frankly most GPs take bloods as well to make sure they aren’t prescribing the wrong meds.
Like I said, whoever it is you talked to either hasn’t practiced for a quite a while, or was a lazy s*8t Doctor to begin with. Should probably be struck off.
I also note you haven’t bothered to deal with my main point: If you say no flu deaths happen (because thy are in fact pneumonia) then the very same would be said of COVID.
That and you clearly don’t have a clue what you are talking about. Yet can’t admit they are wrong. Which is the very definition of untreatable stupidity.
This is beyond srupid.
GPS do not send 90 year olds with pneumonia into hospital for chest X rays.
What we have established is you don’t know how GPs work.
I actually very much doubt you are a doctor.
And your question was irrelevant.
GPs should escalate treatment to specialist or hospital care if the care needed is beyond their ability to diagnose or provide. So yes, a 90 year old with severe pneumonia would probably end up in hospital.
And your GP friend (or is it ex-wife?) is either lazy, incompetent or both if they aren’t willing to do basic checks on their patient to discover the cause of their illness. Does this person just prescribe some antibiotics (which won’t work for most cases of pneumonia) and send patients home?
The main point though is that your are lying. About the flu and about COVID. Then using those lies to lie about the government and accuse them of killing people. Just read your title.
I’m with some of the other commentators here. You really are a piece of work. Truly disgusting.
With respect, I have not the slightest doubt you are a troll who knows nothing about this issue
I also suggest you read Iona Heath on medical ethics
But I am sure you never will
(I have now run my usual troll checks…and guess what….you may need help with multiple identity syndrome)
In case anyone else wants to see what the various different ICD-10 codes are meant to cover, see https://icd.who.int/browse10/2019/en#/J09-J18
Why would there be a false reporting of flu? The historical years of statistics did not have the foresight to consider comparisons with Covid?
The point I am making is doctors do not put flu on death certificates, or so I am told
People die of things like pneumonia, but not flu, as per death certificates
This is then reverse engineered into flu statistics
I am nit saying the stats are wrong: I am saying they need to be rated with care and the reasons why these conditions arise, and kill, need to be considered. Poverty could also be in the death certificate in many cases in that case
‘Democide’? Maybe just ‘deliberate killing’? This is an explicit policy choice of ‘containment’ or ‘living with’ the virus – when as Independent Sage point out there is a clear alternative – ‘maximum suppression’ . This aims for as near zero as possible – as in the ten or so countries that have achieved it, and which would . bring deaths right down, and give the economy a chance to breathe..
This ONS report makes it clear that covid is more lethal than influenza and pneumonia.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsduetocoronaviruscovid19comparedwithdeathsfrominfluenzaandpneumoniaenglandandwales/deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31august2020
Even after 100 years of medical progress covid has so far killed 143,259 victims compared with 172,149 deaths recorded in 1918 from the Spanish Flu pandemic.
I did point this out a week or so ago, the data was already indicative.
It is obvious that the intention is to perpetuate the pandemic for as long as they can.
Just like a war time economy delivers billions to the ‘industrialists’ basically just corporate fascism doing what it always does.
I will point out that the nauseating performance by the Great Knight Hope at PMQ’s which I could barely watch for a few minutes, should confirm to anyone that SurKer played a blindfolder!
£22 Billion in a useless data invasive NHS app and test and trace and massive amounts of pigswilling by cronies – yet Starmer couldn’t land a blow?
He could have speculated at say, doubling Nurses pay over 5 years with an immediate say 20% increase NOW. Or something like that and waited to smack back on ‘how we are going to afford it’?
That is not a contender, it is a rat throwing the fight.
The Establishment ( that includes any and all Sir’s ), it’s minions in the Pillars of State, is moving into barefaced lies and daring us to defy them. They are flexing their rusty iron hands within they velvety gloves.
The Labour grassroots needs to mount a challenge to his leadership immediately.
If there is such a word as “democide” it has already happened. It was entirely a government decision to open up the country in December that led to a January spike of 60K cases a day and over 1200 deaths a day (to be fair, other governments were involved in Scotland, Wales and NI). In contrast, countries that kept hospitality closed following their autumn surge, such as France, did not see that spike.
I won’t deny that France have their problems now, but that is in contrast to our decrease under lockdown. They kept schools open throughout, as well as “non-essential” shops (other than in out-of-town shopping centres). They will probably have to take circuit-break measures at some point, but could do that when schoolchildren have Easter holidays anyway.
I am not sure why this thread has been so full of nit-picking over numbers. Chris Whitty warned of a possible 30,000 deaths from Covid, Andrew’s post shows 27,500 deaths from influenza. What’s a bit of rhetorical exaggeration between friends?
The interesting point from Whitty is his warning that a new Covid surge could come late summer; that would be different from flu. But you could make a case that the surge in cases we have been struggling to contain through autumn and winter started in August 2020; it depends whether you are talking about the start of the surge or its maximum. I am not sure he intended to suggest a future peak would not be broadly similar to flu which usually comes at a maximum in January/February.
You know what the real problem is Richard?
People like you. Bottom-feeders who take other people’s misfortune and misery despite clearly not having a clue what they are talking about, and then use it to try and score cheap political points. Which is all this article really is about isn’t it – feeding your own ego, trying to show how important you are and attacking the government you don’t like.
Not a moment’s thought about the reality of the situation, the truth or how it affects people.
You really are the lowest of the low.
Hang on.
I am the lowest of the low for caring that 30,000 people are going to do as a result of this?
I am discussing the reality, which is utter indifference to killing people.
You embrace that. I know who I think is the lowest of the low.
Brian, I’ve just looked at the John Hopkins deaths per hundred thousand. The UK is second in the world. (Belgium isn’t on the list so it is probable we are third )
That is the real issue. Many of those deaths were preventable and due to many factors such as not taking up the lessons of Project Cygnus and stockpiling adequate PPE. One of my ex-pupils was using improvised bin bags at one point. Then we had the Clark Kent speech which was a bit of Trump like self promotion. I could go on. You are taking aim at the wrong target.
Having checked the definition of democide “Democide is the murder of any person or people by their government, including genocide, politicide and mass murder. Democide is not necessarily the elimination of entire cultural groups but rather groups within the country that the government feels need to be eradicated for political reasons and due to claimed future threats.” (from RJ Rummel who coined the phrase), the short answer to your question is No. Society is familiar with the need to balance risks to achieve positive outcomes. For instance the use of cars and the air pollution they create which kills tens of thousands of people a year. The government does not murder the people who catch COVID, the virus kills them. The act of vaccinating the most vulnerable is surely a clear indication that the government is not trying to murder them. I have no time for this government but I do not think the facts support your suggestion.
I disagree
The Independent article you reference is in conflict with The Guardian’s reporting of this, which Andrew Sparrow covered on his live blog yesterday.
You quote The Independent stating Whitty said we could get 30,000 more Covid-19 deaths. According to Sparrow, Graham Stringer didn’t see how SAGE calculated 30,000 deaths and in response Whitty said he thinks focusing on particular numbers is unhelpful. Sparrow says the 30,000 number comes from the SPI-M-O (flu modelling) SAGE subgroup paper from three weeks ago.
Paragraph 5 of that paper states:
“Under the most optimistic set of assumptions modelled, and assuming that baseline measures once restrictions are lifted significantly reduce transmission compared to a return to pre-COVID-19 behaviours, both groups estimate that at least a further 30,000 COVID-19 deaths would occur under the new scenarios.”
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963565/S1130_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_further_modelling_of_easing_restrictions.pdf
The scary thing in that paragraph is that 30,000 is the minimum.
It was disappointing to hear Whitty say that he does not think it will be possible, realistic, or feasible to to get deaths down to zero, as this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. According to Prof Michael Baker, who put together New Zealand’s response, the UK has all the tools needed to eliminate COVID-19 if it chooses to do so. I trust the opinion of the man who helped his country get a death rate of 5 per million over the man who helped his country get a death rate of 1800 per million. Instead of going for elimination last summer we went for aiming to live with a certain level of death and this got us two more lockdowns and 10,000s avoidable deaths, plus the economic and social damage. When New Zealand went for elimination they weren’t certain it was possible but felt it better to aim for elimination and fall just short than to not try at all and end up with a much higher death rate. The shame here is that we did not even try even after it was shown to be possible. If only we had ended up with Independent SAGE in charge rather than SAGE.
One other highlight was Vallance praising test and trace as being impressive for tracking down the missing Brazil variant person even with a missing form when what actually happened was the person was only found when they themselves phoned 111.
Whitty and Valance giving evidence to the Commons science committee is covered on pages 2 to 6 of Sparrow’s live blog, or rather pages 6 to 2 as the formatting goes backwards in time.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/mar/09/uk-covid-live-news-coronavirus-nhs-staff-pay-rise-vaccine-latest-updates
Page 2 also includes a little on George Osborne criticising Rishi Sunak for raising corporation tax. It was considered a big deal last week when Sunak said that cutting corporation tax didn’t raise revenues, but Osborne disagreed with this. Osborne said that if taxes had to be increased then it would be better to raise VAT instead of corporation tax.
I 100% agree with Richard to be honest about the democide accusation.
Why?
Because it’s about acts of commission and omission to be honest by the Government that has helped to create an environment for Covid to be particularly lethal in this country. We hear of a ‘UK’ variant of Covid – personally I call it ‘The Heathrow’ variant because I think that our airports were leaking like a sieve right through the first lockdown. The virus has been able to mutate because our Government has given it room to stretch its legs.
An omission is our borders therefore at airports which were never really plugged were they? And the biggest omission of all – the reluctance – even now I put it to you – to take Covid seriously which we saw right from February 2020 at Boris’ now infamous Greenwich speech – an attitude that inculcates the Government’s response even now to this day. An attitude based on making money first. We have also seen omissions in terms of people actually getting out there and checking what has been going in terms of work – people put under pressure to go to work because of another omission – that of a decent furlough scheme and the means to uphold it at the coal face.
Commissions? There are many. I mean where do you start? Austerity that meant PPE stockpiles were out of date and down even though a pandemic was seen as likely at some point and weakened health services and weakened communities. Sending the elderly back to care homes without testing for Covid? And then lying about it afterwards, barefacedly. Huge amounts of money put into track and trace which at the moment looks to have been money wasted because the Government felt that T&T could be used to allow things to go on as normal and it would control the spread which it did not. ‘Eat out to help out’? How many of the Nightingale hospitals were actually used? I’d love to see figures for those. I can’t remember seeing those full at all.
So did we REALLY protect the NHS hmmm? If so, lets talk to cancer patients and other outpatients shall we?
What we’ve had in the country in my view is typical ‘perception management’ straight out of the PR hand book – NOT effective anti-Covid policy. I feel that even the Tory backbencher ‘revolt’ is nothing but a piece of theatre to make it look as though the Government is holding fast when it never really gave a damn anyway. And let me assure you – everyone involved in this enterprise is a criminal as far as I am concerned because ultimately it is based on negligence.
So, by all means argue the toss about democide or not, or pneumonia or not, this technicality or that.
But please don’t forget what has happened. The Government has done a bad job. And by rights it should be sacked. Because that is what happens in the real world to people who are negligent. And don’t forget another thing: this Government from Boris downwards tells lies. And that is another act of commission – yes? Ask that most loyal of Tories one Mr Peter Obourne about the lying.
But being sacked is apparently not going to happen in a democracy now made to the Tories own specification: uncaring, unaccountable, corrupt and even worse – dug in – like a tick – so maybe – permanent. Unless of course we stop arguing amongst ourselves and turn our attention to that which must be removed.
PSR I agree with much of what you say especially your final sentence. Democide is mass murder to achieve a political goal. By bandying “murder” about you play into the tories hands because any fair minded person who thinks about it knows the difference between killing someone in an accident, death by negligent driving and premeditated murder by car. By trying to knobble them for fantasy crimes they get away with what they have actually done. Like Al Capone until they studied his tax returns. There should be plenty of evidence of corruption to find for anyone who can investigate.
Is anyone else watching the People’s Covid enquiry, Wednesday evenings with Michael Mansfield in the chair? Last night, there was David King giving a witness statement, along with others. He was very interesting, giving comparisons with what happened in countries like China and South Korea last year at the beginning of the pandemic.
The government is treating this enquiry with disinterest and arrogance. King says that what has happened in this country was completely avoidable, and still wonders if herd immunity is the real aim. He said that 20,000 deaths could have been avoided in the first lockdown if it had happened earlier and completely.
Definitely a form of democide, as schools are still not able to operate safely with the large classes they have, apart from private schools with small classes.
A GP from Oxford was saying that GPs skills were underemployed in the first wave, in order for the government to keep control. Why would they do that if they were concerned about all patients?