Looking forward to recovery may be a touch too optimistic as yet

Posted on

According to the Guardian:

Boris Johnson has told business leaders that efficient delivery of the coronavirus vaccine is Britain’s best economic recovery tool as he promised a sustainable fightback from the worst recession in 300 years.

The only problem with this is that, like so much the government has said on Covid 19, this may not be true.

The reality is that Independent SAGE, who are the body I trust the most on this issue, say that vaccination is not the way out of this crisis. Certainly it will help, but the logic of vaccination is that we achieve so called herd immunity. But as they suggest, developing that scale of tolerance carries all sorts of risk with it, and the real goal of policy should be suppression of the virus, which is something that we have  not tried, but which others have.

So far the UK policy has led to the highest death rate in the world in the last seven days, and a dire economic impact  by international standards. As Independent SAGE does, again, argue, Covid management and economic management are in this case related variables.

That is most especially true when new research shows that single doses of vaccine, as opposed  to double dose vaccination, may not be effective in the over 80s, whilst other new research, out today, shows existing vaccines  may have limited impact on new  virus variants.

I am not saying Johnson is wrong: it is just possible his policy may work. But it will be against the odds. Despite this he was, apparently, in full boosterism mode, it being reported that:

The prime minister said it was important for the government and businesses to work together to rebuild the virus-stricken economy, and that he would support job creation, upgrade Britain’s infrastructure, and launch a “green industrial revolution” to help the country “build back better” from the pandemic.

It would be almost amusing to note that he has adopted Corbynistic terminology rather than use the term Green New Deal. But without beating Covid 19 all this is just talk, and right now we have not achieved that goal, or shown that we know how to do so. Nor does it even look like we are necessarily on the right path to doing so. We have a long way to go as yet, in other words.