I liked a Twitter thread by Chris Giles from the FT yesterday (and those are words I do not expect to write often). In it he demolished the argument from Guido Fawkes that fishing is more important to the U.K. economy than Harrods.
Giles' argument is based on U.K. value added, which he shows to be bigger in the case of Harrods than for U.K. fishing as a whole. The data can be found in this thread:
Harrods and fishing - a thread
For the benefit of @christopherhope who was correct on the telly today
and Paul Stains - @GuidoFawkes - who wasn't
tl:dr Harrods is worth more to the UK economy than fishing....
... has been for a few years.
... now not even close
1/
— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) December 17, 2020
Any win over Guido Fawkes is sweet: it is a noxious website. But that's not the point here. Nor is the point to prove how valuable Harrods is, because I can't say that I have been a customer for 40 or so years, and I can't think why anyone is. I think I went once when I was first living in London. Rather it is to demonstrate how irrelevant the fishing argument that is the claimed obstacle in EU negotiations really is.
Total value added by U.K. fishing is around £450 million (yes, million). Most of that would be retained by any Brexit deal. The loss sustained might, then, amount to £100 million at most. Which in the context of Brexit is less than small change. The U.K. fishermen could be very easily compensated for losses and investment could easily be provided for alternative occupations, all for much less than the cost of no deal.
And for the record, I do not believe the sovereignty issue is significant, and nor do I think the Tories do, for one second. I rather suspect that 99% of the population, when faced with Brexit losses, would not ether.
So what is this about? Delay, prevarication, posturing and low level politics, I suggest. All that really matters now is either a) not being seen to be the one to give in and b) having the chance to blame the other party. That's all the fishing dispute is about. An entirely fake argument on this issue is being used to pretend this is, once more, about defending Britain from the invader across the Channel, which it is thought will work with key focus groups and so be extended into a win for Brexit in the country at large.
For sake of such pettiness is delay being generated.
Deep down, do I know if this will be resolved? I do not.
Do I think Johnson believes he can win from it? Yes, I do.
Do I think he really will? No, I don't.
But whoever did the future matter to Johnson?
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There doesn’t appear to be any comment from the UK fishing industry as a whole about this. There is plenty of input from the Road Hauliers, British Motor Manufacturers and others but nothing from any fishing trade body. I find that strange. This seems to be an issue entirely created by the UK Government and the ERG
“There doesn’t appear to be any comment from the UK fishing industry as a whole about this. “..because 33% of UK licenses owned by 5 UK families are for the most part toryscum voters. The “plan” is probably for them to expand their licenses to 100% post Brexit and, by hook or by crook, sell the fish caught to the EU – which is what happens now to most fish caught in UK waters, mainly because UK serfs and peasants have a limited palate/taste for “funny” fish. I wonder if/when Uk serfs will finally gird their loins and turf the tory barabrians out.
Ok I don’t believe in this Brexit nonsense. But isn’t the pro Brexit argument about the increase in our fishing industry when we throw the foreigners out and presumably get more boats to do the fishing ourselves? Not about the current small value of the industry. Of course in the short term we don’t have the boats but I am sure the french fishermen will be happy to sell us their redundant boats (not).
I sometimes wonder why Boris – who’s own life is at best chaotic – thought that he would be able to lead this nation through any crisis.
Any deal that is now achieved at this late hour is due to Johnson facing reality and accepting what was on the table to Teresa May (indeed, probably inferior). It will be difficult to explain all the delay and uncertainty that he has inflicted on us unless he has the fig leaf of a fishing victory. He is hoping that its economic insignificance as an industry will not be lost on the EU side either.
It’s a dangerous game.
You only have to look at the numbers to understand that we are on the edge of a third coronavirus lockdown. Hospital admissions are markedly up again and deaths will follow. The government has form for delaying too long twice before and no doubt will repeat the mistake yet again, risking the health and lives of hundreds probably thousands of people. Delaying this time until after Christmas could be catastrophic, particularly if the relaxed “five days of Christmas” remains in place.
The virus doesn’t care about Christmas. It’ll infect you anyway.
I despair.
Mistake?
It’s pure fascism isn’t it really – making the concerns of a minority appear to be the major concerns of the majority – blowing things out of proportion.
It’s pathetic and those who are won over by it should know better.
As things stand, I am more worried about Christmas 2021 than ever before.
Worth reading
https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2019/03/07/fishing-brexit-uk-fleetwood/
Unearthed investigation published last autumn found that well over a quarter of the UK’s fishing quota — 29% — was in the hands of just five families on the Sunday Times Rich List.
The majority of fish caught is by Scottish boats, many of which are owned by family firms. And Harrods?
But yes, Johnson is using this as a prawn to leave without a deal.
It does not appear that fishermen are adequately represented, even by themselves. The British fishing industry is always represented in the media and through politicians as if this was solely a matter of white fish (mainly haddock and cod); and fisheren are always, always represented in the media by the White Fish organisations (representing a very narrowly owned industry – it has been alleged that only five [5] wealthy families effectively control it, and much of the quota rights, they sold to foreign boats) as if they speak for the industry. They don’t. The white fish fleet is largely in north-east Scotland.
It is rare to hear any public representation at all fro the valuable West Coast inner water fishermen (vital to local communities that have prospered from the EU); fishermen who sell the finest sea food (principally crustaceans and molluscs) to the EU; and will be hit a dreadful blow by Brexit. Any border delays are disastrous for highly prized Scottish, fresh crustaceans.
I think Johnson prefers a deal with USA – although we don’t seem to need one given that we have a surplus on trade with US.
I was perturbed to note that one of Trumps chums was offering such a US deal and along with it the agri food problems it brings. Biden has already said a deal isn’t coming anytime soon, so I worry that we will get a shi#ty US deal brought in before Trump goes.
Brandon Lewis paid tribute to Trump recently and said he (Trump) is a friend of UK.
But maybe I am paranoid (and if not then perhaps I should be).
Congress has to approve
That’s unlikely….
Don’t worry.
Our brave fisherpersons will be staunchly protected by a few £billions of either Royal Navy vessels, or more likely it will be farmed-out to a private company at an equal £billions cost.
All for a few hundred £million of fish that the UK population doesn’t eat [mainly] and which will be unable to be sold to the EU; after the toys have been thrown out of the Deal Pram.
Meanwhile, plans are being made to move USAF aircraft out of the UK after we leave…….
Yes fishing is a small percentage of both the EU and UK economies. But maybe it shouldn’t be as small as it is in the UK. The fishing industry was shafted under the term of the UKs entry into the EEC.
There’s already lots of money in London and London would survive well without Harrods. Whereas Grimsby, Fleetwood and Lowestoft don’t survive so well without their fishing.
But I agree it would have been better to stay in the EU and fight for a better deal.
Two things: My nephew, a airline captain, will be flying tons of fish from Norway to the UK very soon. Hmm.
Secondly, I remember just after the “Falklands” war someone writing that we should have given each islander a million quid and brought them back instead of a ruinous war for both sides (except Thatcher). Could we not do this for the fishermen and follow up with UBI? Could be a win/win, which unfortunately Boris would not recognise even if you slapped across the head with it. In many respects he reminds me of Ian Smith of UDI infamy – and look how Rhodesia ended up!
It seems to me the simplest way to protect British fishery workers is just to make the quotas unsellable. We keep reading that the winners of our quota allocation sell their quotas to foreign fishermen and that’s why our industry is so diminished. Just sell the use of some part of our quota for the purpose of fishing from UK ports only. If all of our quota were allocated to British fishermen/women the industry would be fine. And if people bought quota and then didn’t use it it would give the fish stocks room to recover.
On Johnson, some remarkably perceptive comments here, from 2012: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/politics/2012/10/boris-johnson-man-who-would-be-king
* Boris as Conservative leader “would make the thing such fun. It would be a white-knuckle ride. He would need really, really good people round him.” [oh dear]
* “He has a gift for mending fences even with those whom one might have expected to become his lifelong enemies.” [Gove, for example?]
* “He is a risk-taker who will go for anything he thinks has a fair chance of working.” [and if it doesn’t …]
* “we can expect Johnson to bend every sinew to demonstrate that he is the party’s greatest electoral asset and the one man who could lead it to an overall majority. He will try to become the person to whom the party feels compelled to turn. … If he does one day supplant Cameron, he will regard it as belated recognition of his natural supremacy.” [job done? time to retire?]
And then some choice quotes about him from June 2019: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/22/boris-johnson-by-those-who-know-him
* “I used to think he would be fantastic at Number 10 but those days look a long time ago.”
* “I have come, reluctantly, to the conclusion that Boris cannot provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead.”
* He “waits to see the way the crowd is running and then dashes in front and says, ‘Follow me’.”
* “The Johnsonian creed [is] that it is, in his own words, acceptable, sometimes desirable to lie.”
* “He’s lied his way through life, he’s lied his way through politics, he’s a huckster with a degree of charm … As well as being mendacious he’s incompetent.”
* “he doesn’t have the necessary skills and capacity”
* And the old favourite from his Eton housemaster (quoted in the 2012 article too): “I think he honestly believes it is churlish of us not to regard him as an exception, one who should be free of the network of obligation which binds everyone else.” [well, he lies and he cheats, with that wonderfully honed and practised air of unpreparedness, optimistic boosterism and bonhomie, to conceal his lack of any real effort]
A perceptive comment on the radio today, that his dithering over the Christmas relaxation of coronavirus restrictions, while rates shoot up, is another example of “cake-ism” – the idea that you give people freedom, and than beg them not to use it. You can’t fool a virus.
Thanks
So, only essential travel through Kent? If the UK really is the epicentre of a new more infectious variant, the EU and perhaps other countries might ban travel from the UK until we get it under control. Either is going to have an interesting impact on the import/export queues, with Brexit layered on top.
How long is this going to last? Difficult to see the schools going back as expected, even if the headteachers can organise the testing that the government expects them to put in place at the drop of a hat.
This all comes back to Johnson’s optimism bias – deferring difficult decisions because he hopes things will turn out for the best. If we had started the November lockdown a few weeks earlier, or continued it for another couple of weeks, things might look very much better now.
Agreed
As absurd is I am living in tier 2 next to tier 4
How can that make sense?
I was in tier 2 until Friday. On Thursday, the day after London went into tier 3, it was announced we would be in tier 3 from today. And now we’ll be in the new tier 4 from tomorrow. Go figure.
As it happens, I think we should have had more restrictions already, but the way it has been managed is atrocious. We are essentially back to a local lockdown for the foreseeable future. Fortunately we had very limited plans for next Friday, but schools are meant to restart in 16 days time.
Please god, let’s get the vaccines approved and deployed pronto, so we can start to get our lives back.
I cannot see next term happening in anything like the way planned
Scientists are saying the R of this variant could be 5 if uncontrolled
Tiers are not Enough!!
Tiers of a Clown.
Well, we are going to find out early what the end of free movement means. France has suspended travel links with the UK for 48 hours, which seems to mean no people can travel from the UK to France, but unaccompanied freight can move. So all those queuing for 20 miles across Kent are not going to leave until Wednesday at the earliest. And those queueing in France may want to think about whether and when they will be able to return. Who would want to come to the UK when they might not get back for weeks?
No rational person
But there are a lot of Tories…..
This is going to get *very* messy *very* quickly. Literally many thousands of lorry movements per day through Dover (who knew it was so important?) plus other Channel ports plus Le Shuttle, easily 10,000 or more. They may come in but they can’t go out again. But how likely is France to change its advice very quickly (for Wednesday, just a couple of days before Christmas?). As Hancock already admitted on Sunday morning it is not under control, more more likely the EU will adopt a common position and say “sorry, no entry from GB until you have this under control” .
We are going to need to arrange put containers on ferries here to be picked up by drivers on the other side, and vice versa. Dover and Folkestone as a container ports, not roll on/roll off, which will be much slower. Just in time? Just wait. Is this the nail that finally kills Johnson’s premiership?
It should be
I see the queues.
Don’t see the toilets or showers though.
Guess it will be a mess..
Fed up with platitudes like ‘we are following the science’ and at a loss to explain Bojo’s behaviour I did a search on the NHS website and found enlightenment.
A person with antisocial personality disorder may:
exploit, manipulate or violate the rights of others
lack concern, regret or remorse about other people’s distress
behave irresponsibly and show disregard for normal social behaviour
have difficulty sustaining long-term relationships
be unable to control their anger
lack guilt, or not learn from their mistakes
blame others for problems in their lives
repeatedly break the law
Enough said?
Sums L.B.J up to a tee Bill.
The word you are looking for is “sociopath”
“A “sociopath” has little regard for another person’s emotions, rights, or experiences. They lack remorse for their actions, and they act in ways that show no regard for others, including lying, cheating, and manipulating.
Some people with this condition aren’t very sly about their conduct. Others are quite deceptive.
The people who have an easier time engaging in these dishonest behaviors may be called high-functioning sociopaths. Indeed, someone who’s high functioning often comes off as charming and warm, while hiding behaviors and conduct that’s often anything but”
A more than adequate description of Alexander Boris De-Pfeffel Johnson.
What are the symptoms of high-functioning sociopathy?
Not all high-functioning ASPD symptoms are evident. Many can become more apparent after true intentions or agendas are revealed.
Symptoms and characteristics include:
Superior intelligence. Those who are high functioning are often incredibly smart, with very high IQs which can help them read, manipulate, and control scenarios.
Lack of empathy. People with ASPD don’t comprehend other people’s emotions. Therefore, they don’t appreciate or anticipate the consequences of their actions.
Calculating behaviors. People with this type of sociopathy are driven and determined. A strong self-love (narcissism) and sense of grandiosity may be their catalyst.
Secretive tendencies. High-functioning individuals may keep everything close to the vest. They rarely reveal private information or thoughts unless it’s to manipulate another person.
Charm. Despite generally not enjoying being around people, a high-functioning person displays impeccable social skills.
Sensitivity. People with high-functioning ASPD can be defensive. They may be quick to anger when they perceive they don’t have someone’s approval. That’s because they often feed off admiration from others.
Addictive behaviors. It’s not uncommon for a person with a high-functioning personality disorder to experience addiction. Compulsive behaviors and reactions can lead to issues with gambling, sex, alcohol, and drugs.
Purely as an interesting aside, when I was in Lochinver in the Scottish West Highlands some years ago I had an interesting chat with a local mariner. There were foreign boats operating out of that port and presumably with the appropriate licences/quotas. Their fishing techniques however were very different from local boats. They were using baited long lines for hake, I think. I understand that this type of fishing is very environentally friendly as one hook catches one fish. On another occasion in Islay the local boats were fishing a type of crab that had no market in the UK but was in high demand in Europe. Sad if we loose this due to Brexit.
Excellent pies in Lochinver. Pies by post web site is worth a look. I stocked up just before Christmas. Excellent pies and a wide selection to choose from.