I am thinking about the likely consequences of the current crisis. I am not seeking to analyse why we are in this situation. I am not looking at structural issues per se. I and considering what the issues that we face now are, however they might have arisen, before then thinking about how we go on to address them. I am trying not to include more claims than is necessary, knowing that the demands will already b3 urgent and pressing. This is where I got to, without spending that much time on this:
- That the Covid 19 crisis is not yet over;
- Some degree of lockdown will continue for a while;
- Whatever happens, the economic implications of the events that have already happened as a result of the coronavirus crisis to date will continue for some years to come.
The likely consequences include:
- A significant increase in unemployment, which is likely to reach levels not known in current lifetimes;
- A significant increase in the number of corporate insolvencies as companies try to settle liabilities outstanding from or accrued during 2020 when their revenues, gross margins and so net profitability are unlikely to have recovered because of the continuing effects of Covid-19 on the economy;
- There are spillover consequences for personal solvency as those whose incomes have been impacted by furlough and unemployment are unable to settle liabilities, and in particular rents, mortgage liabilities, utility bills, council taxes and lease and credit obligations;
- There is likely to be a significant increase in homelessness;
- Property prices are likely to fall;
- The risk of a banking crisis caused by landlord and householder defaults is high;
- Claims for universal credit will increase, significantly, with nit all claims being met, and with a still incomplete system being tested to its limits;
- Demands on the NHS will increase significantly, including in poorly resources areas such as mental health;
- Child poverty will increase;
- Demand for child support services will increase significantly as their parent’s lives are disrupted;
- Stress within society will increase significantly.
What have I got wrong, or missed that is a priority?