It's very hard to disagree with this in The Guardian's editorial this morning:
Just over a decade ago, the UN secretary general and others urged a Green New Deal in response to the global financial crisis. The world missed that opportunity, and looks set to repeat its mistake. But the benefits of a drastic shift in priorities are clearer than ever: economists and health experts say that they would outweigh the costs. The World Economic Forum said last month that tackling what it calls the global nature crisis could create 400 million jobs and $10tn (£8tn) in business value each year by 2030 — while the current rate of destruction threatens half of global GDP.
There is still time to act. Economic rescue packages are still being shaped; Berlin's has shown what is possible. In the UK, coal's role in power generation has slumped from almost 25% to 2% in just a few years, and the offshore wind industry is thriving. The ban on petrol and diesel cars slated for 2035 should be accelerated, and the installation of gas boilers outlawed. But above all, pandemic response spending must be directed to those parts of the economy that can reduce global heating, not worsen it.
As they noted in the subtitle:
Greta Thunberg has warned that we have wasted valuable time in the fight against global heating. We need Green New Deals
Quite so.
And we know how to deliver them. So when are we going to get a real one?
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There will be no Green New Deal with our current crop of politicians, nor with Biden in the US. The clock is ticking.We have to create a vision for society in which every citizen can share the vision of a bright future, both for ourselves, our children, humanity, and the rest of the planet. Things look particularly bad now but just to shake our heads and give up would be wrong. We have one last chance, if we can light up the neural pathways in our brains and light a fire in our hearts, we can pave the way to a brighter future. People need to be inspired, to feel part of this movement and to feel needed. They need hope. The psychopaths pushing to exploit the very last surviving ecosystems on the planet for personal wealth and greed are just that. Psychopaths. They are not normal. We do not have to go along this destructive route with them. We can reject it. The cry during the pandemic from the establishment was ‘getting back to normal.’ ‘Getting the economy moving again!’ To where? Normal was the thing that got us into the mess in the first place. We need a new normal. The old normal was a disaster. A vision of hope for humanity, a recognition we are not the end product of natural selection, merely passengers on a pathway alongside many other species, on which we depend and which we need to protect. Capitalism has been on life support since 2008. The pandemic has highlighted our fragility and tenuous links to survival. It was a warning. We need to heed that warning, take a deep breath, and step into a brighter future. We live on paradise. We must not destroy it. If that takes a revolution, then that’s what is needed.
For the last few years, the climate emergency has been much discussed, and the children school strikes and ER have been making headlines. People are aware of recycling, the seas gaining huge amounts of plastic, the levels of carbon in the atmosphere are rising etc. Each year we have new records of hotter days, wetter months, record braking flooding, once in a century storms three times a year. Our politicians publicly acknowledge the problems and make promises and sit in debates pontificating on how much they are doing, but, the reality is they are doing absolutely nothing. And our press and media never hold them to account, as they are part of the same group of criminals and looters that are the roadblock to change. A new story has to be told. A new way of thinking has to storm the barricades. There has to be a story of intergenerational wellbeing and respect and awe for our ecological support networks that can bypass the moribund and malignant patriarchal corruption of our ruling elites. If it cannot be done through our entrenched dictatorial electoral system, then this has to be bypassed. The existing hegemony of the State has to be challenged. The State will use violence as it always does to protect itself, but if enough are enthused, if a plan can be brought to bear that is as plain to understand as it is to implement, and, if enough of our youth start to understand what is at stake for their futures, then the small run of a snowball can become an avalanche.
Following on from your previous thread on our amoral government, I’m not hopeful. I’m also not hopeful a) Labour can actually win in 2024, even with how bad the Tories are doing and b) that their own economic plan would be enough, as they seem to be trying to step away from the 2019 Manifesto and ‘radical’ Corbynism (ironically in 4 years, the 2019 blueprint won’t be nearly radical enough).
Did you get chance to look at the website link I sent you a few weeks ago?
Sorry – I don’t recall it
Apologies
https://www.heritage-house.org/
Worth a read regarding vested interests.
No GND can be delivered while the predatory nuclear industry tries to barge its way into the sustainable resource future…
I’m working with a couple of European Commission people on an econometric paper which looks at “engine room” issues with respect to the “emergency energy transformation” that needs to take place. I’m writing some of the technical annexes.
One of the problems both in the UK and in mainland Europe is lack of ambition amongst governments. For example, roughly 100GW of new renewables need to be built each year, every year for 10 years ++ to get to where we need to be. There is no sign of this happening. Merkel & Co make all the right noises – but an examination of proposed build out (ditto UK) shows that action & need are grossly mismatched. For the avoidance of doubt amongst readers: these are not assertions – mid-September I’ll be able to tell you exactly how bad it is (I only have a rough idea now – circa 35GW).
Moving to the money: 100GW/year will require new money of around Euro150 billion per year (& that is just for the power generation aspects). Putting this into perspective, net new bond issues in the Euro zone are around Euro350bn (source: ECB). So if you went the bond market route (I’m not saying you should) that is an increase of 50%. Bolt in energy efficiency & it will head towards Euro300bn.
Meanwhile, “electricity markets” are “not-fit-for-purpose” designed as they were for the fossil age. (for those wanting detail, I have a 5 page tech annex using Iberia as the example). This is the main focus of the work I’m doing with the Commission. And for the avoidance of doubt amongst trolls: nobody is paying me to do this, & certainly not the Commission.
In summary: ambition & strategy, a plan that matches the ambition, resources commensurate with the plan – all are lacking. The overall approach in the EU (& in the UK) is ad-hoc i.e. classically English – a bit here, a bit there and let’s hope for the best and muddle through – bingo! – Brexit.
I look forward to more next month
Can this be published more widely then?
The econometric paper is nearly finished. I finished the annex today wrt to Spain/Portugal. The paper+annex will go into an academic journal (not sure which one).
The mis-match of “need vs ambition” will be completed mid-Sept and I will probably generate an article for publication on a site like Euractiv. Anybody that wants the Annex is welcome to it – it very much gets to the heart of the current problems with elec markets. The paper formalises the points made in the annex in economic terms. Publication has been cleared by the Commission btw. – it will not be a Commission document – but written by two Commission people – with my contribution via the annex.
Good luck
And keep me posted
Mike – please do let us know when it becomes available. Rigorous analyses are in short supply
I see the Democrats have dropped their promise to end subsidies for fossil fuel companies. Bad news for any hopes that they may actively promote real change. Also a good video narrated by US congresswoman AOC entitled “Message from the Future” advocating for a green new deal.. that has also been nominated for an Emmy.