I did not work this weekend. That was a deliberate choice. It's been a deeply fatiguing few months. I don't regret the effort. I am incredibly lucky to do something that I enjoy. But, reflection does no harm. The trouble is, there is relatively little that is giving cause for optimism right now.
Covid-19 is not the fundamental root of my concern. Of course, suffering a pandemic is a disaster. What worries me is, however, how we react to it.Here, three issues seem to be apparent.
The first is that we seem to be moving to a state of denial. The language is about ‘returning to normal'. We are not, however, doing that. There is still a pandemic. Covid-19 is not being defeated. There is no vaccine. And yet, deliberately led by the government, whose messaging is about as confused as it is possible to get, the pretence is that the Covid-19 threat is almost over. Nothing symbolises that more than the absurd £500 million ‘eat a meal in August' scheme.
Some, of course, believe the government. That is their right, except for the fact that when defeating a pandemic everyone has to be involved.
What seems more apparent, from simple observation, is that a great many are disbelieving of the government's claims. There is no desire or willing to rush back to normal, precisely because people are still worried, and rightly so, in my opinion.
I am in this category: I spent some time over the weekend trying to persuade myself that this could be the moment to book a week away, self catering. I didn't succeed. I cannot, as yet, believe it the responsible thing to do. Like so many others, I am suffering from a crisis of confidence in the messaging from Downing Street.
What is also apparent is that there is, underpinning the disquiet on pandemic management, an extreme concern about the economy. The sense that ‘I am furloughed so I am OK' is rapidly dissipating. It is being replaced with the idea that ‘I've been furloughed, so my job must be in doubt'.
This is then coupled with the belief that the government is moving from doing ‘everything possible' to the newfound position that ‘we're right out of money and you're on your own now'. Since this is the messaging that's now emerging, that's an entirely reasonable presumption to make, but it feeds an underlying sense of impending crisis.
After which there is the government's own behaviour to worry about. I am aware that many do not think about this. If they did then opinion polls would clearly not be showing the results that they are. But amongst those who engage with politics and who believe that democracy only thrives when there are appropriate checks and balances in place between the various forms of government that must, necessarily, coexist within any functioning state, there has to be rapidly rising concern about what is happening in the UK right now.
I never expected Brexit to be good. But I also did not expect it to be totally chaotic, and also almost entirely lawless in the sense that just about every international requirement to make it work, including for customs checks, is apparently being ignored, or even denied to be necessary (in the case of Northern Ireland). it is simply not possible to run a state without due regard for the considerations of others, including your trading partners, who must expect common standards of behaviour to be upheld, and yet this is what is happening. Our government is treating almost everyone with total disregard and that is going to have a heavy cost.
The same is true of the government's almost total disregard for the civil service. You cannot run any organisation when holding its staff in contempt, and yet it is very apparent that this is what the government is seeking to do. Chaos, disorder and failure will be the almost inevitable consequences.
And the same contempt is being shown towards all governments outside Westminster. So, the devolved governments are being ignored, or are having their power stripped from them. It is apparent, for example, that much of their power over the economies in their countries is to be stripped from them, put the responsibilities for failure will, of course, remain.
Much the same is true with local government, where it is clear that financial maximum stress is to be put in place with underfunding to be the norm, but blame for failure to supply services will still be heaped upon them. Something will break now, of that we can be sure.
I am quite certain that Dominic Cummings is justifying all of this as a policy of creative destruction and the necessary precursor for a process of change that will, in his opinion, deliver some new order that will achieve his goals. It does not help that in his case the goal in question appears to be enriching his friends. But, important (and disabling) as that apparent corruption is, what matters as much is the sheer incomprehension on the part of Downing Street as to the level of disorder that is sustainable within our society.
Of course we can manage some chaos: societies always can, albeit always at some cost. But the degree to which any society can sustain chaos depends on the resilience within that society. Some of that resilience is financial. The knowledge that children can be fed, come what may, is of considerable comfort to any parent. Keeping a roof over heads is the next requirement, and so on. Eventually the resilience is about the maintenance of social networks, and so on. And what Downing Street thinks, I believe, is that such resilience exists in the UK.
They are wrong. Those in Downing Street might have never known the fear that the money right run out, but an increasing number in this country now realise that it might well do so.
And at the same time they see a government in chaos.
And they see the collapse of international relationships.
What is more, many know that Covid 19 is still with us, even if some pretend otherwise.
I don't think that fear is pervasive yet. But I don't give it long until it is. And then what?
I don't know. I am not pretending that I do. But I just cannot see compliance lasting. And nor can I see the power of the government to impose compliance lasting either: when the army and police are as much at risk from the actions of this government as anyone else - and they are - I cannot see them imposing its will in the long term in the event that there is mass disobedience, as I think there might be in reaction to the contempt in which people are now being held.
I wish it was not like this.
It need not be like this.
But it has been created this way. And we will have to live through the consequences.
I fear that the worst is yet to come.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
i have to say-i cannot disagree with your comments
And MMT solves everything in a heartbeat!
No
No one has ever said that
Except you
And you’re wrong
Crass.
“There is no virus.” Para 3. ?
Should read vaccine ?
Changed
Thanks
Don’t start writing before 6am Is the lesson in that
🙂
I can’t possibly imagine the government mentality is to worry much about the pandemic. On the premise of always take advantage of a crisis they’ll obviously be relishing the prospect of all that abundant and cheap labour available to work in their freeports! Corvid-19 working even better than the Gold Standard!
All correct, but I also wonder what is going to happen when this bunch of self-referencing kool-aid drinkers meet the reality of external level headed international law. You know of course that the WA is going to be ignored/re-written? Within the UK these people can get away with murder – literally! – but outside their cosy little fantasy land the ‘hard rain’, if you like, of international treaties and relations will hold sway. From reading the gossip, it seems that Johnson and Co really are ignorant combined with hubris and believe their own works, such as they are. I know we are all going to suffer, terribly I think, (I don’t wish to go hungry), but their comeuppance will be a sight to behold. The idea of course is that we would be taken under the wing of the USA, but of course they will only do things for their own benefit and I doubt the little old England will feature large in the plans.
Of course there is almost nothing anyone in the general populace can do to change things, they have ridden rough-shod over all conventions and law. Even yourself, with far more influence I’m sure than myself, despair at the inability to make any headway (apologies if you are leveraging things in the background!).
There are people who consider the wearing of masks as nancy-boy attitude ‘put your big boy trousers on’ they say. Go out there and defy the virus! Yeah right.
I agree with you.
The Government is made up of people whose lives are not at all like the people they are in charge of – they are effectively decoupled from it in an experiential sense.
Gove and Cummings though are even worse – intellectually decoupled – they have created an inner reality for themselves that insulates them from reality.
Both attitudes celebrate their contempt for us the lives we lead in the wake of their decisions.
BTW, I wrote ‘Crass’ in reply to Jamie – not to you – I’ve no idea why it put that comment in response to your follow on.
MMT will solve the artificial limits put on fiscal investment to get us through these times and dramatically improve our prospects.
But MMT will not improve the quality of the people in Government, nor is it a project management tool.
Why aren’t we hearing these sentiments in the MSM? Government needs to step up like its 1945 or all of these concerns are real. Schools have all but given up. How long until the same is true of the police?
According to John Harris in the Grauniad, DWP, having suspended its sanctions during the Covid-19 crisis, is now reinstating them as the department comes up to speed. The caring state seems to gone back into hibernation.
Defence, and know this is a difficult subject for many, is another area where government appears to have been side-lined in a further rise of the influence on non-elected individuals. According to John Healey, Shadow Secretary of State for Defence;
‘Ministers call this the biggest defence review since the Cold War, yet it seems the Ministry of Defence is a by-stander. Plans for Britain’s future defence and security should not be in the hands of political advisers, as seems to be the case. We need a full assessment and wide debate about the threats the UK faces, led by military specialists.’
Is this another case where Boris has shirked his responsibilities and is allowing an adviser to shield him from both the processes and from making decisions.
I can see this arrangement working well for Boris as it means he gets to play at being PM but he doesn’t have to do anything difficult in connection with the role, like make decisions, himself. It works well for Cummings too as he gets to be ipso facto PM without having to endure the tedium of campaigning or having to get elected.
We’ll see them leaving Downing Street some day. It might be in handcuffs, or it might be in pine boxes, but leave they will.
I am discussing this post on LBC Radio at 2pm
I hope you can find some ‘one-liners’ that will resonate with listeners and that you can make good technical points that are valid but do not sound too hard to grasp.
(Actually what I would like you to say is “they (Boris and his chums) are as thick as shit” or something suitably outrageous).
I may not say it quite like that….
Not my best broadcast, but you discuss an approach and then get given another one when you go on air…
Still, I got a debt message across and that we need to spend much more…until multipliers kick in
I had intended to illustrate the path this government is treading. Like, 90% of our pharmaceuticals are imported and we have no working arrangement to handle traffic at ports after December. Or, perhaps the coincidence of PPE stocks being reduced by £300m since 2013 and the awarding of a £252m contract to Ayanda Capital with no need to tender. I have eventually settled for noting an Omen.
A vulture has been spotted roosting in the Peak District. The first of many?
I agree 100% Richard. I have been thinking for probably 2 to 3 months – and saying to colleagues – that after the full consequences of Brexit are evident and with the Covid disruptive effects still in full glare the shit will hit the fan.
There will be a Day of Reckoning for this country early in 2021.
Do you have a link to hear the broadcast? Thanks
I guess it is somewhere on LBC
I admit, I have not looked
Sorry
After reading this, and despite the Westminster government claiming we should all be (all the UK countries) in lockstep over this, I’m SO glad the other three countries in the stinking joke of a union decided to break lockstep with Westminster. The facts speak for themselves.
The sad thing is that no-one in the rotten UK.GOV will be held to task over the tens of thousands of deaths. I’m just so glad I’m not English.
Frightening. I’ve felt this was the direction of our society/state for a while now, the pandemic has sped up the process.
As things get more chaotic the corporate media will target minorities to deflect blame whilst the BBC acts as a megaphone for them.
The more power is centralized the less is exists at a local level which I think equals to less resilience. Perhaps a way to unify us, empower us and build resilience is through a local practical movement – so for example people in a neighbourhood could get together to build DIY cheap wind or drainpipe turbines for their homes using recycled materials. So the person who cares about climate change unites with the person who wants to save money on their bill. Developments that are practically useful to people at a community level could possibly cut through the division tactics the establishment use whilst also empowering us and incentivising us to resist state abuse.
I think whatever the problems of local empowerment might be it’s the logical antidote to the direction state power seems to be gradually going towards – which seems to be a horrible facist/feudal like condition.
Hi Richard,
Reassured to read I am not alone in having these worries…
Most of my sleeplesss night (last night) was spent ranging over many of the points you mention, with a portion of Trump added.
Listening to Radio 3 news now, I could be forgiven for thinking ‘It was all just a bad dream’!
Thank you for your sterling work of holding the powerful to account. There are too few voices.
The difference between an optimist and a pessimist is a pessimist is better informed.
Many of my friends and acquaintances who voted for the Tories last December because they swallowed all the negative nonsense about Corbyn and what a vaguely Socialist government might do, have now had 7 months of hard experience of what a catastrophic decision they made. Boris Johnson’s bullshit “boosterism” has turned into a living nightmare. My friends etc are better informed. They are all pessimists. This blog probably is actually understated.
Its hard to think of a metaphor that describes how grim the prospects look, with the combination of COVID, no-deal Brexit, and the malign incompetence of the current government. I was talking about it with an old and gloomy friend yesterday and it was hard to find anything to cheer him up with. Its been said about businesses that it takes a massive crisis to get them to change (boiled frog…) and sometimes not even that is enough. The UK is about to get the double whammy of all double whammies.
Meanwhile the COVID stats are revealing, with England being dramatically worse than Scotland or Wales or Northern Ireland. This perhaps the first time that the differing approaches and performance of the devolved governments have been so starkly exposed. A strong message for those communities – and maybe for the English too if they bother to look.
Indeed