Unlike the government and the Bank of England my economic thinking is based on there being a likelihood of a second wave of coronavirus for three good reasons.
The first is that epidemiologists think it likely.
The second is that it is prudent to think it likely.
The third is that evidence from other countries who ended lockdown in far better positions than us suggests that Covid 19 cases are increasing rapidly.
I could add a fourth possibility, and that is that there is an upturn in cases here too, as data from yesterday shows. Compare these charts for 24 and 25 June:
Covid 19 cases were up, sharply. And this is just about the most objective data we have.
That may be a blip. It may not be. But to presume we are risk free would be absurd. Scenes at Bournemouth beach and Liverpool celebrations worry me enormously. What will already be the toughest winter in living memory could get much worse if such scenes continue to be replicated, and lockdown could be back before schools restart. The fat lady has most definitely not sung yet.
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From what I hear people talking about at work and in the street, a lot of people agree with what you are saying.
(All socially distanced conversations of course – you have to speak more loudly when your further apart).
I am worried, too.
Managing behaviour of large groups is tough but the shambolic end to lockdown started with Dominic Cummings. From that point on this chaos was always likely….. and the Government must not be let off the hook.
It is brave to make such a prediction from one data point, when the daily figures are clearly quite noisy. You might just saw well say the trend from the previous five days was monotonically down, and this one day is an outlier. That is why they have been smoothing with a seven day trailing average.
Even without any uptick, which I agree seems likely, it looks to me like a long tail of around 1,000 new case a day (probably a gross underestimate, by a significant factor – perhaps two to four) and around 100 deaths a day (again, also a considerable underestimate of the excess deaths). If the case mortality is around 1 per cent, 100 to 200 deaths per day now implies around 10,000 to 20,000 new cases per day around three weeks ago (when we were detecting around 2,000). That was post-Cummings, but before most of the restrictions were removed, before the BLM protests, etc. And before young people decided they needed parties, and the crowds at the beaches. We could see it jumping up again in the next week or two.
I agree about extrapolation
Bit one is allowed to note variations in trends and wonder as to cause
But Richard, don’t you know that Professor Hugh Pennington, one of the UK’s most eminent bacteriologists says this is nonsense – “Virus second wave warnings ‘rubbish’ says leading expert” in the Scotsman today. He also says – if we do the right things, the virus could be gone before Christmas.
His main argument against a second wave seems to be that the only virus known to exhibit the second wave phenomenon is flu. I’m not an epidemiologist (and nor is he), but even if second-wave is something inherent to virus DNA (?), that doesn’t mean we won’t have a massive second outbreak.
Many real experts ARE concerned that an outbreak of “normal behaviour” could lead to a second outbreak of infections. As a rank amateur I’d add that, if a surge in infections can happen, it can happen again. In the UK, the initial surge happened due to importing infections, which can certainly happen again. If England suffers a new outbreak, which I hope it does not, the Scotland/England border should be closed. I don’t think Professor Pennington would support that idea (see Footnote).
Footnote: The professor (retired) is much quoted by all the Scottish media and BBC Scotland when he makes such pronouncements, and when he criticises the Scottish Government for its response to the pandemic and much else. The fact that he is a virulent critic of the idea of Scottish Independence, and indeed a member of Scotland in Union escapes them. The BBC has been using him (I use that phrase advisedly) since at least 2013 – “Scottish independence could jeopardise scientific breakthroughs, leading bacteriologist Prof Hugh Pennington has warned.”
I think I’d rather listen to Devi Sridhar
I note Texas is shutting all bars again today
You bet second waves can happen
You would be correct!
Even if Herd Immunity is still not the hidden policy of this government their incompetence in dealing with the coronavirus makes it so. Does this mean there’s a recognition amongst voters on the need for competence in the running of the country’s affairs? Looking at a photograph of the huge quantity of litter left on Bournemouth beach yesterday wouldn’t suggest it!