I was slightly surprised by headline in the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales daily newsletter this morning. It read:
The ICAEW had engaged Oxford Economics, in whom I have never had much faith, to form this view.
But there was a caveat:
Recovery could still falter if lockdown is extended, a second wave of coronavirus triggers another lockdown, the long-term economic damage is worse than expected or government support is withdrawn too early. A collapse of UK-EU trade talks could also hamper recovery.
As caveats go that's as good as the audit report that says this company will be a going concern until it isn't.
The chance of any one of these events happening right now is, in my opinion, high. The chance of a rapid recovery from this crisis is, then, very low.
Why are people trying to delude themselves?