Whatever the government is now doing on Covid 19 it is not following the science. The Association of Directors of Public Health in the UK issued a statement yesterday saying so. As they noted:
COVID-19 has already taken a huge social and economic toll on our nation — and the reality is that it will continue to do so for some time.
We are at a critical moment. We need to weigh up the balance of risks between easing restrictions, to enable more pupils to return to school, more businesses to open and more social connections to happen, with the risk of causing a resurgence of infections.
Directors of Public Health are increasingly concerned that the Government is misjudging this balancing act and lifting too many restrictions, too quickly.
I think that is pretty unambiguous. But if there was doubt they added:
This is a new disease; evidence is still emerging and there is much uncertainty. However, based on what is currently known, several leading scientists and public health experts have spoken out about a string of recent national policy announcements affecting England which project a degree of confidence that many — including ADPH members — do not think is supported by the science.
And as a result of the confused messaging from the government they say:
Over the weekend we have seen signs that the public is no longer keeping as strictly to social distancing as it was — along with this, we are concerned that the resolve on personal hygiene measures, and the need to immediately self-isolate, if symptomatic, is waning. A relentless effort to regain and rebuild public confidence and trust following recent events is essential.
They conclude
The ADPH is calling for full implementation of all Phase 2 measures to be delayed until further consideration of the ongoing trends in infection rates and the R level gives more confidence about what the impact of these will be. There also must be a renewed drive to promote the importance of handwashing, social distancing and self-isolating if symptomatic, positive for COVID, or a contact of someone who is. And, additional assurance is required that the NHS Test and Trace System will be able to cope with the scale of the task.
The risk of a spike in cases and deaths — and of the social and economic impact if we have to return to stricter lockdown measures — cannot be overstated; this needs to be understood not only by the public but also by the Government.
What is very clear from that last comment is that they clearly think that the government either does not understand, or is choosing not to do so.
I now really hope that health experts will stop standing beside government ministers each day at the increasingly ludicrous press conferences that are being held: it is time for them to make clear that they withhold their consent to be used in this way. This crisis is too important for it to be pretended that their presence endorses ministers' actions when it is clear that most health professionals have no desire to do so.
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The simple fact is that Johnson, Cummings, Gove, and their disciples want to get the economy up and running so that the UK negotiating team will hold all the cards in the confrontation with the collapsing EU. They understand that the people are tired of experts such as health professionals, and know that common sense will save the UK and ensure that the will of the people, as expressed in the referendum, will be fulfilled. Those who have an irrational preference for facts, expert scientific knowledge, an understanding of the basic realities of the importance to the UK of trade with the EU, and who criticise the government’s steerage of the UK ship towards the rocks must be what Blessed St Maggie defined as a Moaning Minny. You are a Moaning Minny, Richard. Me too.
I agree with all of this.
And the relaxation of rules for those who more vulnerable is an absolute travesty – I know 3 colleagues on this list and if they got Covid-19 they would most certainly perish.
If medical and scientific input from the participants at Daily Briefing is to be stifled we might aswell have a bishop standing there to give Johnson’s ministers the air of authority they clearly feel they lack.
I do not think the government cares Richard, they want as many people to get as possible. They think they have the pulse of the public, as seen by the crowd beaches etc. As some people who want the lock down to end some people will die anyway so it cannot be helped. Of course they who say this do not want themelves or their family to die but the “other”.
I still think those going to beaches are the exception
I did not see a rush to school this morning…
“…They think they have the pulse of the public, as seen by the crowd beaches etc….”
Tombstoning off the rocks of Lulworth Cove. Yep, this government certainly understands some of the people……
I keep being worried that the concept of a level of “acceptable death” has gained hold in many circles. This has influenced laissez faire attitudes to care homes, PPE, economic support, return to school and so on. Andy Street (Mayor of West Midlands) was taking the line on the radio that school returns were “necessary” this morning. Just one example of what I referred to as a WW1 generals approach to Covid casualties – fine for them as sit in the equivalent of chateaux 35 miles behind the lines.
I am totally discombobulated by this situation. Around me there are people going around as if the whole bizarre scenario never happened. I hope people resist taking their kids to school today but it seems that the message the government sent is – lockdown is over, do what you like. Saying there are rules in place is meaningless if there is no enforcement and no general sense of social conformity to those rules.
I can’t avoid thinking that either this virus thing is overblown and not so serious or that the government is intentionally manipulating the public to increase deaths. At the moment I find the latter far easier to believe.
Were the government following science when they downgraded PPE requirements for certain activities? Was the abandonment of “Track and Trace” based on science?
No, they were based on the realities of what was possible at the time….. and, within that narrow context, may have been sensible decisions. What was really lacking was some honesty about (a) why the policy really changed and (b) an explanation that this was due to earlier mistakes. I suspect that scientists bit their tongues at this stage because they recognised it would not have helped – there was not instant access to more PPE and testing capacity. I respect their decision.
What has changed to make the scientists a bit more vocal?
To this point, the government’s failings were ‘hard-wired’ into the process in January, February and earlier. Now, perhaps for the first time we are seeing the government having a choice about how to proceed (fast or slow unlock).
Scientists recognise that giving them the evidence is not enough. They see an incompetent, mendacious government that is abusing their advice and can no longer stand by. Who do you trust?
Mr Parry,
“Was the abandonment of “Track and Trace” based on science?
No, they were based on the realities of what was possible at the time”.
From the perspective of the scientists, this is what they were faced with:
Guardian (Hannah Davlin) 3rd April,
“’Unlike some countries, we didn’t go into this crisis with a huge diagnostics industry. We have the best scientific labs in the world, but we did not have the scale,’ Matt Hancock said this week, facing a barrage of questions on why the UK is lagging behind others on coronavirus testing.
Industry players say this is a fair characterisation. ‘We have a lot of diagnostics capability in this country but what we don’t have is the global diagnostics giants,’ said Tony Cooke of Cambridge Clinical Laboratories. ‘Even when we have our own companies, a lot of the supplies are coming from the US or Germany’.”
Telegraph (Donnelly and Morgan), 30th May:
“At a meeting on Feb 18, advisors said PHE could only cope with testing and tracing contacts of five Covid-19 cases a week, with modelling suggesting it might only be possible to increase this to 50 cases.”
Germany began with an industry that could produce 50,000 per day. But then Germany had 26,000 ventilators; ICU beds to match, and both PPE and a federal structure that could organise test and trace. We had less than 6,000 ventilators, limited ICU beds, out-of-date PPE (national stocks run down from £831m to £350m over ten years, som of it only usable after retesting; if at all), and a dismantled local public health organisation.
I think I can understand the pressures the scientists faced.
We are still privatising and centralising on a monumental scale to tackle the problem. All of this is the consequence of neoliberal ideology, Conservative government and ten years of deiberate and calculated austerity, leaving the country ill equipped to face the biggest threat to public security since WWII; from a pandemic that was both foreseen and predicted (after SARS and other Corona virus threats), and for which scientists and public health experts provided clear warnings direct to Government of the consequences, including Exercise Cygnus, 2016. There is no excuse; and the culprit is the Conservative Party for the last ten years of its political leadership.
Healthy, young and white and you are probably ok even if you catch the virus which you probably want to, to start to build immunity. Older, unhealthy, overweight (about to be a huge burden on the NHS) and from an ethnic minority group you could be in trouble. With the party donors in big businesses losing money due to the lock-in which group are the government likely to favour? It is not about who is right and who is wrong, but about different agendas.
An article in The New Statesman is of the same view.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/06/boris-johnson-s-reckless-rush-ease-lockdown-threatens-deadly-second-wave?fbclid=IwAR00OYEUxC7-uUdkeZXq1PL8MyogwbVDUTc0s8ZnInxH4Cmd8dXs-8J_6_M