It would seem that Johnson thinks he can keep Cummings, simply by grinding down the media until they give up the demand that he go, even if it is now very clear that he did break lockdown regulations.
I note that John Crace describes Johnson as both ‘quite dim' and ‘totally amoral' in the Guardian today. As is Crace's knack, he gets the measure of the man. I'd add that the amorality leaves the supposed great communicator either actually quite unable to read the sentiment of others, the majority of the nation included, or utterly indifferent to that sentiment.
The net effect is the same. Now the veneer of ability has been shattered it cannot be recreated. The real Johnson has been seen. It can't be unseen now, even by all those who had overlooked two decades or more of warnings. This man really does not care.
Indifference can be a virtue in a politician. If it implies an ability to do the right thing even at personal cost it is seen to be a merit. But when it implies that the opinion of the electorate simply does not matter then it is something else: then it is a millstone that will inevitably drag the politician down. When once the popular reaction to the acts of the politician was one of tolerance and acceptance of best efforts, the moment indifference is exposed then the lens through which their actions are seen changes. From then on every failing (and every politician always has many failings; they go with the job) becomes further evidence of their incompetence. Or indifference, and even contempt, in this case.
What even Johnson must know is that this affair has cost him considerable political capital. And if he does not, his party does. Weekend opinion polls will be interesting.
Johnson thinks he can survive the media onslaught. He will believe that the right wing papers will tack back into line. But he faces three problems.
The first is that his latest moves on Covid 19 fly in the face of the scientific advice he has been given. His claim that his actions are guided by the science no longer stacks. He's now defenceless if his reopening after lockdown does, as many expect, results in increasing death rates. They will be his responsibility.
Second, as South Korea is now finding, renewed lockdowns might be required after reopening. And Johnson no longer has the moral authority to make any such demand. In that case the current failings will rebound on him.
Third, he might be indifferent, but his party is not. People give up more financially valuable careers to become Tory MPs for only one reason, and that is to taste power. That might imply systematic amorality on their part. But it also suggests a collective ruthlessness if under threat. And Johnson now threatens Tory MPs. Being a single term Tory MP elected in December 2020 is not going to deliver much cash value to those Tory MPs in what really do remain marginal seats. And they will, you can be sure, act on the one conviction that they definitely share, which is self interest.
Put these three issues together and we're down to one thing that determines Johnson's fate now. Macmillan may not have said everything in politics is down to ‘events, dear boy', but if he did not then he should have done. That's because to a very large extent that is true.
And events to come look to be hopelessly bleak for Johnson. If a new Covid 19 outbreak does not get him, mass unemployment, major corporate failures and a Brexit induced slump will. There is simply not a glimmer of hope on his horizon now.
You might say that such would be the fate of any prime minister at this moment. To some extent that would be true. But Johnson has personally created the impression that he is dim and amoral to the point of indifference in the face of these difficulties. Those impressions can only be reinforced as events overwhelm him in weeks and months to come.
In the face of the disaster that this will spell out for the Tories their liking for the man who took them to victory will very rapidly fade. I strongly suspect a coup will be organised. I cannot say when. That will depend on events. And there may be a desire for delay so that as much of the bad news sticks to Johnson as possible. But come I think it will.
Johnson had one good day in office. It was February 3, when he delivered his celebratory speech on leaving the EU. In that same speech he cocked-a-snoop at coronavirus and said he would be indifferent to international opinion on the issue. We have already paid for that with far too many deaths in the UK. And as matters get worse, as they will, Johnson will pay the price for that.
I accept Johnson may survive this Cummings crisis. But he is engaged in a battle he cannot win. It's just time before his party ditch him. And he's too dim to realise.
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Sorry, I totally diagree. The polls show the Tories STILL clearly ahead after ten years of austerity, Brexit, etc, etc. The sickening reality is that we have a populist government in charge that will use all the levers to stay in power rather than use that power for the public good.
There is already an uptick in C-19 hospital admissions. It was reported earlier in the week that a hospital had to close it’s doors to all patients , including emergencies due to a break out of the virus
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-hospital-weston-super-mare-nhs-general-ae-patients-a9531116.html
There is also an uptick in deaths across the ountry since Johnson’s disasterous decision on Sunday to tell people to go back to work
https://skwawkbox.org/2020/05/28/as-skwawkbox-warned-johnsons-back-to-work-recklessness-has-driven-new-surge-in-cases-in-london-and-elsewhere/
I’ve used the Skwawkbox article for the graphs showing the uptic this week. The writer does have a left leaning bias, but in a pool of right wing media he’s one of only a few. He has also signed up to Impress which is an independent media standards regulator, unlike Ipso which is the watchmen watching themselves.
Johnson is a sociopath leading a party of socipaths, and in turn being led by puppet master Cummings who appears to be even more sociopathic than the rest of them. It was him who sugggested herd immunity, and him who said protect the economy even if people died.
I am convinced there is an uptick – it is happening in London already
I have been down loading ONS data which gives overall deaths, COVID deaths and 5 year average, per week. Peak deaths (all deaths & COVID) were Week 16 & 17. After that deaths (Covid and all deaths) were going down. Week 20 (15th May) they started going up (week 19: 3930 – week 20 – 4385).
Doubtless this will continue & the Uk will sink further into the mire.
Historical comparisons are difficult: Nero? (another talentless clown). Playing with new child (instead of fiddling) while Uk dies?
Where is the Praetorian Guard when you need them?
I am very worried
I think your prediction is probably correct, but it’s impossible to be very hopeful about Johnson going because whoever replaces him will be just as bad in his or her own way.
He is finished; it’s just a question of when he falls, and how many people he drags with him.
I genuinely wonder if he is aware of how badly he has screwed up on Corona, it whether his inherent narcissism blinds him to his failures.
I think it’s a matter of time before we see riots in the UK like in Maryland. This time there will be plenty of pissed off unemployed middle classes as well with anger and time on their hands. Could get ugly. Boris might like that though, if he can spin it as part of his Trumpian brexit culture war.
I agree with your sentiment here – the Tory party had found their ‘single issue’ leader in Boris but that is all he is as Covid-19 has made clear. He is, has always been, a one trick pony, a leader of lies.
To those who think however that Cummings’ behaviour gives them a right to do the same I say this:
Stay at home as much as possible.
Protect yourself when out and about if you have to go out.
Observe social distancing rules.
If you catch Covid 19, you will either become an asymptomatic carrier or you could become ill and that may lead you going into hospital where you might also die.
If you suspect that you have it, isolate yourself as recommended and seek help.
REMEMBER: If you have the virus but show no symptoms, you might pass it on to friends, family and loved ones who might also become seriously ill and/or die. Would you like that on your conscience?
REMEMBER: testing is till piecemeal and PPE is still a problem – only the rich and the establishment get tested on demand in this country, not people like you.
It’s not worth letting Cummings get to you and throwing caution to the wind. He’s a highly educated idiot of which there are far too many in this country. Look after yourselves and stay safe.
Stick to the original rules as much as you can despite them being relaxed. This Government – who employs Cummings – has not got clue about what they are doing.
And finally, remember this time, especially when it comes to the next election.
I would like to report Pilgrim Slight Return to his boss for immediate internment.
He’s just run through a few things he likes to see people doing, without mentioning the single biggest thing anyone can do to help, which is wash your frigging hands, in still soapy water if possible. No wonder so may public sector workers live shorter lives than non-public sector if this is what counts as advice.
If you cop a viral dose of say 3000 virons, then a week later when that’s multiplied a 1000 times perhaps and your immune system is on it, then you’re going to have a bad few days. If your initial dose is 300 virons, BECAUSE YOU WASHED YOUR HANDS before you touched your face, then you might barely notice that you had this virus.
Quite dim? John Crace is obviously in a polite mood today. The amazing thing is that the British public were and still are taken in by this dangerous buffoon.
The Cummings affair will not result in his downfall. He will survive – which will be a matter for celebration for his followers. A very substantial chunk of the electorate still thinks Mr Johnson is a great leader, the saviour of the nation, the defender of the will of the people, the man who will get things – Brexit of course – done. Indeed, in their eyes, his titles should be The Great Leader, The Saviour of the Nation, the Defender of the Will of the People. There are too manyu still abroad in the country who, like an individual in our village a few weeks ago, insisted we should all go out into our front gardens and “Clap for Boris”, the man who had “worked his socks off” to lead the nation to defeat the Coronavirus just as Churchill in our “finest hour” had “fought on the beaches” and swore that we whould”never surrender” (yes, really. No exaggeration. This happened). These people, a very substantial part of the population, still exist, still think he’s doing a wonderful job, and imagine that the “scum media” led “witchhunt” is a “lefty remoaner” “metropolitan elite” “conspiracy” to undermine this nation and divert the country from its global destiny and sunlit uplands etc.
So the Cummings – Johnson du-umvirate will survive – for the time. But will it survive the avalanche of chaos that is to engulf the UK? No. Will the economy recover? No. Will test and trace prove to be the saving process that ensures the end of lockdown? No. Will there be a continued decline in infection rates? Probably not. Will the end of lockdown be a great success? no. Might there be a return to lockdown? Possibly. And will the country survive the catastrophe of Brexit……..? The continued incoherence and incompetence of this Johnson led government must surely erode and diminish the numbers of those who curently imagine Johnson is the greatest thing since sliced bread and come to recognise he is the worst thing since sliced turds. Indeed worse. It is then, perhaps around the Ides of March next year, that the rule of Johnson, supposedly now bestriding the world like a Colossus, will be ended, with Gove playing the Cassius role (admittedly no lean and hungry look there), and some “honourable man”, a Brutus figure – Hunt? to make the final dagger thrust. And after that…….?
Interesting that Johnson may be worth holding on to for as long as possible while the mud is sticking to him. Were he to be ousted now it would cost the Party another leader to weather the storm because no one in cabinet seems to have much of a clue what to do differently. (If they do they are being very quiet about it).
It is surely only a matter of time before literally no one bothers to listen to Johnson’s empty flannel.
Whenever this country has a Tory administration, the recurring tragedy is the level to which the socio-economic fabric of the country must deteriorate before enough people are prepared to vote it out of power. By 2024, the tens of thousands of avoidable Covid-19 deaths will be – to anyone not directly affected – just an unfortunate statistic. And the Cummings affair will have long disappeared from media comment.
A lengthy post-virus + Brexit induced recession, inflicting enduring hardship on millions, will undoubtedly eat into their 80-seat majority. But it’s not going to be until 2029 that Labour stand a realistic chance of regaining power.
It’s truly scary to think of what the Tories will conjure up in order to hang on in. If the polls indicate he’s becoming an electoral liability, Johnson is readily disposable. Then who and what? It’s not a question of being pessimistic – the reality of the situation is dire. Unless, of course, one belongs to the high asset-owning class adequately cushioned to avoid such crises, and even benefit from them. Was it ever thus.
I disagree
This is a Major style government
In terms of the damage being done to the country, surely worse than Major? However, my point was with regard to the extent of the electoral swing required (in key English constituencies) to get them out of power. Major only had a 21 seat majority. Perhaps the nearest equivalent is in 1964 when Wilson just managed to overturn the 100 seat majority that Douglas-Home controversially inherited from Macmillan. Because of FPTP it’s all about where the most dissatisfied voters happen to live, isn’t it? And at this early stage of the game it’s pretty much guess work. However, if I was a betting man I’d wager you a large Americano that the Tories are re-elected in 2024 – a bet I’d happily lose.
I’d also happily lose the bet and stand you whatever of your choice – in a coffee shop, of course
Barista!
The Cummings press conference in the Number 10 Rose Garden shows where the true power lies. If Johnson had wanted Cummings to simply explain his actions he could have done that anywhere not in a place reserved for Prime Ministers. Will people see this and see that Johnson is a weak leader, easily manipulated by a clever, non-elected presumed but clearly not employee? Maybe maybe not. But I suspect that Johnson is leader for one reason and one reason only and that is to deliver Brexit by the end of the year. Beyond that the party will not need or want him. Any failure on Brexit can be blamed on the EU or the ex Prime Minister Johnson and his team. If I were Raab, Patel, Williamson et al I would also start making plans for the back benches.
I mostly agree with this but think there is one possible scenario which we are missing.
What if, instead of him being callous and uncaring, he is in fact being statesman like having been convinced that herd immunity will save us.
This is the only explanation that covers his and Cummings behaviour (except for the psychopath explanation)
Time will tell if this noble act does indeed save us from a devastating second wave. If it doesn’t, he is toast at around about the same time it becomes obvious we are crashing out of Europe with no deal. That is Srarmers plan I think.
Johnson’s days may well be numbered, but how soon? A large number of the public may well be angry and disillusioned but others will cling to their faith in Johnson. It is no coincidence that they are predominantly Brexiters as Brexit is also a triumph of faith over fact.
Johnson always was a front for darker, less visible forces and those who follow this blog will be well aware who they are likely to be. Wealthy folk in the City including the hedge funds, oligarch and other dark money, far Right libertarian organisations that cross the Atlantic. When he ceases to be useful, or they think enough mud has stuck to him, he will be disposed of. He may not even get the whisky and revolver option…
He will be replaced and I fear that it will be someone just as malign and potentially more competent, like Gove. They will do anything to cling to power, both to continue with their nationalist libertarian project and because they know that their crimes – and they are crimes – will be fully exposed if they lose power. So expect more attacks on democracy such as the latest move to block on-line Parliament, despite its relative success.
Back in the real world, we’ll see the more responsible and vulnerable people ignoring government advice and continuing to isolate and distance, or at least be extremely careful. The idiots – and they are gullible idiots – will be out in force, together with those who have no choice or are forced by circumstances or poverty to take risks. We’ve just had a nearby spot swamped with visitors, post last weekend’s events, much to the anger of local residents, many of whom I suspect would be traditional Tory voters. Jeremy Hunt will have had emails and not just from me.
Not a cheery prospect, though I am encouraged that in Starmer we have someone far better suited to challenge Johnson and co. I wish him the very best of luck
Politicians of all hues often talk about things like ‘for the good of the country’, ‘showing leadership’, ‘putting the country first’, and similar.
It’s time for someone in the Tory party to live up to these words, sooner than later, and oust Boris Johnson.
I understand that politics means there “..may be a desire for delay so that as much of the bad news sticks to Johnson as possible.”
Now is not the time for such consideration. Surely amongst Conservative MP’s there is someone of substance, female or male, who is willing to put their head above the parapet and say they should replace Boris as PM?
Sadly, I think that Johnson will weather the storm. He will be permanently tarnished but they do employ the best propaganda that money can buy.
It’s been less than a year since the last Tory leadership election. Before that, the abysmal Theresa May clung to power for only 3 years.
I wouldn’t rule out another leadership election in, say, 2022 but I doubt that the Tories would go for one in the next 18 months at least. Too fast a turnover of leaders looks very poor.
Besides, who would they replace him with. Not exactly spoiled for choice, are they?
John Major;s downfall was helped by a variety of scandals as well as the Black Wednesday ERM crisis in 1992 including several sex scandals as well as brown paper envelope bribes to MPs in Harrods. On Thurdsay the Times reported that Housing Minister Robert Jenryk helped a billionaire building developer escape a tax of £40 million regarding a proposed development in Tower Hamlets. This scandal has not been taken up by other important media outlets yet.
I’d spotted the Jenryk fiddle, as you say barely reported
The level and frequency of scandals we are going through now is of a different order. People have just become punch drunk, bored and despondent.
Definitely time to get on the streets – if only we could…
Not been taken up by other important media outlets? Not made a splash, perhaps, as everyone was focussing on Mr Cummings, but it was also reported on the 27th by:
the BBC – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52826751
the Guardian – https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/27/richard-desmond-housing-project-unlawfully-approved-robert-jenrick-isle-dogs-london-avoid-40m-hit
the Independent – https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/robert-jenrick-bias-tower-hamlets-westferry-printworks-richard-desmond-northern-shell-a9534941.html
Oh, perhaps you have a point. I can’t find anything in the Sun or the Mail.
Rushing through a controversial planning decision to benefit to a party donor to the tune of £50m? Surely not.
We basically have a dictatorship in the UK (and also US) akin to Russia / china. But because this is counter to western ‘liberal’ ideals we are served with ‘incompetent’ leaders so that the inevitable ‘changes’ of leadership satisfy the domestic concept of democracy.