I am well aware that human behaviour tends to revert to the norm. I suspect we all know that. Our assumption is that after periods of disruption - whatever their cause - things go back to normal. Quite surprisingly, whatever the crisis we have faced, and whatever it has imposed on us, life after periods of trauma very often looks quite like life before that trauma happened, at least for those who survived the event, if fatalities occurred. Our ability to adapt and then survive is one of the qualities that has ensured homo sapiens are still around, and in ever larger numbers.
There are limits to this heuristic explanation of life going on though. Because of course, things do change. Sometimes that's for the better. And sometimes not. Individually this is of course more apparent than collectively: by definition median changes are very much smaller than those observed in some outlying cases: statistically that has to be true. But even so collectively, experience changes us. It takes only the most cursory reflection to appreciate that as societies the rate of change has been quite staggering over recent lifetimes: medians are not, by any means fixed. Our reversion to norms is not absolute.
Some of these changes are chosen. In fact, of late a great many have been. For large numbers, but by no means all people and let alone everywhere, recent decades have given rise to apparently untold opportunity. Choice has become a touchstone. It's almost axiomatic that people want the supposed freedoms it provides. The constraints have been ignored. And somehow, and I stress the somehow, we have (and that's a collective we) managed this process, although the rise in mental ill health, which I think is real, is some indication that not all might be as good as it superficially appears.
And now coronavirus threatens this trajectory of change. Of course the appearance of coronavirus is, in itself, shocking. It is the paradox of living that we must assume, for at least most of our lives, that we will live without limit whilst knowing somewhere, deep down, that this is not true. Coming to terms with our mortality is something most of us would wish to defer. Coronavirus disrupts that. It imposes the prospect of sudden and unexpected (but for most, pretty unlikely) death upon us. No wonder it is so unpopular, and so greatly feared. It is, quite literally, something we do not want to think about, but have no choice but address. We, and those we love, are at risk. That's shocking when we live presuming otherwise.
And yet, we knew about this risk already. After all, coronavirus almost certainly represents a much smaller threat to our well-being than other now known threats, of which the climate crisis is by far the most obvious. The only thing that differentiates coronavirus is its immediacy, and the fact that it appears so obviously physically threatening. In contrast, the need to tackle the climate crisis appears capable of being deferred. And we can (and most do) still pretend that we can all survive temperature changes that science suggests are profoundly threatening to our collective wellbeing.
To some degree the prioritisation of the threat from coronavirus is rational: it is the immediate crisis that we face. I think it is going to be profoundly more uncomfortable than others appear to do. Those small-minded landlords who have been appearing on the site for the last couple of days suggesting that I am proposing revolution when all I have actually been offering is my best assessment of the collective economic risks that we face, and how to ensure that as many as possible survive such threats in reasonable financial shape to ensure that the landlords in question still have tenants who might be able to pay rent in the future, are a sure sign that many people's risk appraisals, and sense of priorities, are profoundly wrong in the light of the collective nature of the problem that we will face. But, coronavirus will eventually be self-limiting: whether a virus is developed in time or not, those who survive it (and most will do so) will develop an immunity to reinfection, and the threat from it will diminish. That is its inevitable trajectory.
But the threat from climate change will only increase. That too is its inevitable trajectory, unless we take the appropriate actions, of course. That includes targeting net-zero carbon vastly quicker than we are at present. And the costs of not doing so will be much higher than any coronavirus will impose.
So will coronavirus prevent us returning to the norm that we ‘enjoyed'? Will travel patterns really change? Will the world appreciate that globalisation is not the answer to all questions? And that the pursuit for ‘free trade' is not worth trashing the economy for? Will there be an awareness that we have to live differently? Will, once we get used to the idea that choice has to be severely restricted to deal with a crisis - and this will be happening soon if coronavirus is to be managed - we accept that some constraints are also necessary to manage the climate crisis?
Will we, in other words, revert to the norm, or will that median behaviour, and what we expect of it, change?
I accept the political accusation that I believe that this is necessary. If I have an agenda it is our collective survival. It would seem some prefer to prioritise their own short-term economic wellbeing, as they see it. And I admit, I find the naked pursuit of that agenda profoundly unattractive. It's hardly unusual to think so, but comments on this blog would suggest it was. What I do know is that the challenge of the climate crisis, which requires the trade off of short term gratification against the long term communal good, is the challenge that we now really face.
Nothing about the coronavirus crisis is welcome. But it's vital that we learn from it. Reverting to the patterns of behaviour that we have ‘enjoyed' is not an option for the long term. Coronavirus might just help us see that. I do not pretend that this will be a great silver lining. But it may be the best one we will find.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
Once this moral panic passes and the virus turns out not to be as deadly has it was assumed to be, people will indeed go back to the way things were before.
Still selfish, still mean, stil nasty, with a few snippets of kindness here or there. Proof -they vote in Bojo, it’s a big thing, labour wants power at all costs, so it going to dump its previous policies and continue to lose voters. People are not so fooled by this and go for the real deal like in Scotland they want a party of convictions, they want real people to believe. It is why a lot of people voted tory, one to stuff labour, and two its because the tories do not change. Well they may appear to be but in reality they do not. Their core message is “we love you”but in reality they hate the massies for fools they are.
Bojo is the loveable rogue who does a Corbyn act with his scruffy mannerisms and ebullient mantra. Remember when Corbyn used to give a straight answer? He stood in front of the tv, with his scruffy clothes on and gave use an honest answer, that was before the news speak people made him change. He became just another politician who never answers a question. Bojo does answer, he does give a positive spin, it does not matter if he lies, it’s all part his “lovely charm”. HE TELL IS LIKE IT IS/not.
So every time labour loses an election, they go we have to change, and change they do, then scratch their heads as to why they never win the next time. Simple people just do not trust phonies, who change like the wind because they lose. If they did like labour of old and stuck to their principles and fought the fight for people to become enamoured by them. Then they will indeed, like the tories win more elections
I know the article was about the coronavirus but it turn out to more about climate change. The nutty fringe of the movement want to close power stations down, stop us from travelling and limiting oneself to the village and no more travel thee. I kid you not i have seen these from the likes of David Attenborough and co and people think oh no it worse than hugging a tree. Travel is great, it broadens the horizons and no – stopping planes from flying is not the answer, it will just not HAPPEN. So people will go back to their summer hols on the beach with a pint or tequila or two, and love the atmosphere of Marrakesh without going 1 km from their hotel to see the slums just round the corner.
I think that irrespective of the coronavirus we, as a country, have lost our way. Brexit, zero hours contracts, the lack of affordable housing, as examples, and a plethora of other things have left this country with no optimism but just an acceptance of things as they are. Our electoral system which concretes in the status quo with no regard to reflecting the true opinions of those who vote, our economic system which perpetuates inequality where many of those who work do not earn a sufficient amount to make ends meet and our welfare system which discards so many as a liability rather than a need to be met. I hark back to the sixties and seventies where life was sometimes tough but there was a hope for something better. Then came 1979.
Should have grew up in Sunderland in the 1970’s like i did..proper miserable, grim, random violence. Typical working class community, happy though because we knew no different. I had no real understanding of politics or the economy then though i do remember runaway inflation and the only outcome for most at 16 was the local factory. Fortunately i scrambled through school and on to University. When i go back now the town and the area is miles better and the lives of the vast majority have improved massively .I see that with my family, brothers, cousins etc as i am really the only one to have left the area. Of course you need to work. There is and always has been a kind of underclass. Families who doss, disrupt, thieve and don’t want to work. Scumbags basically. There are also those who want to work but cant work for many reasons (illness, mental heath, disability) and they have definitely been left behind and life is tough for them and more compassion, help and financial support from the State is absolutely needed. Return to the 70s though, you won’t find many takers from where i come from!
I am not aware anyone is asking for the 70s back
I was not advocating a return to the 70s in terms of the squalor etc but to the attitude of politicians and others who provided the hope and optimism as they, as our leaders, could provide something better. Admittedly prejudice around racism and sexual orientation was higher than it is today but there was never the attacks on the ‘undeserving’ poor and not so poor by politicians and a welfare system that existed to provide a safety net, a housing policy that set a standard of supply {the Parker Morris standard abolished by Thatcher] and the notion of collective bargaining that did not set one worker against another. Today we have a system that penalises those in adverse circumstance rather being one that helps these people to better themselves in our welfare system, a housing policy that views the right to a decent home as a commodity and a job as something where you expect the most but pay the least because the workforce is divided through the emasculation of the trade unions.
One area that could do with a review is – globalisation. Euractiv has a bit on the virus – I did a BTL. The double inverteds are extracts from the article. Some of it falls into the class “you could not make it up”. Globalisation needs killing, now. It is responsible for the high speed spread of amongst other things viruses.
Starts
“Tragic irony is that 60% of the global production of these masks is in the wider region of China’s Wuhan, where the virus first appeared.”……………&……….loads of medicines are made in ……..India who are now keeping quite a lot of the pain killers etc for their own use.
Globalisation — the gift that keeps on giving & which the European Commission has been such a cheerleader of — will now (or has the potential to)…….kill loads more EU citizens because ………its easier to outsource stuff to China.
Let’s just keep in mind, most if not all the significant diseases that have totalled large number of European citizens have, throughout history, originated in China. Black Death? — China, various plagues in 17th century — China. Plague in 7th century which weakened Byzantium and Persia — China, Spanish flu — China. China ……..one gigantic petri dish — foreever in the process of developing some new & “interesting” virus. Which are spread at speed around the world thanks to the airlines – which by the way – now talk about state aid to hlep them deal with the impact of the virus – which they were instrumental in spreading.
Yeah we need change, fast.
Why can’t we make paracemtemol?
We can but other countries can make it cheaper..thats the nature of international trade
Maybe we might have lessons to learn about national security then
They make it cheaper because they are poor and we are rich (on average). It’s called inequality. The capitalists just love inequality because they can make it cheap over there and sell it dear over here and at the same time avoid nuisances like employment regulations, which are laxer or non-existent over there and a bit stronger over here (even though they’ve been weakened since Thatcher, Blair and co. over here); and environmental regulations which are laxer or non-existent over there and stronger over here….and so on. And so they can pay themselves huge bonuses over here and at the same time increase inequality over there as they help the new capitalists over there enter the billionaire stratosphere.
Meanwhile, as said, what about food security, medicine security, manufacturing security? Oh to hell with that, it’s cheaper to ship it over here from over there, just in time. What could possibly go wrong?
Hmmm. Not sure blaming China is helpful? I’m sure they don’t do it on purpose!
Hmmm – I’m not hopeful. Everytime something like this crops up, we seem to get around it and then pat ourselves on the back for being so clever and try to get back as quickly to how things were before. Mind you, the pandemic has yet to really take off. It might yet just show us just how hollowed out we have become and maybe the penny will drop with the voter (although we must not underestimate the ability of the Tories to point the finger at someone else).
There is one thing worrying me though.
How the virus might affect international relations at a time when we really should be working together constructively as we deal with environmental change and the depletion of natural resources. The fact that we have some avoidable wars still raging and people are still fleeing from them too. Are we working together on the pandemic? Looking at Trump, I’d say not. In one way, nations might be closing borders to protect themselves but how might this affect the meagre co-operation we seem to have now on these other issues?
It’s a big worry.