I felt that this report from the Electoral Reform Society (I am a member), issued this morning, was worth sharing in full since many here seem interested in this issue:
A new report from the UK's leading pro-democracy group lays bare the ‘crisis of legitimacy' faced by parliament, following an election that saw voters marginalised on an extraordinary scale.
The Electoral Reform Society's comprehensive analysis of December's general election, titled Voters Left Voiceless, reveals (full figures/graphs by region and by party are in the report):
- Nearly one in three voters (32%) ‘held their nose' and opted for a so-called lesser evil in December's election, according to previously unreleased YouGov polling for the ERS (regional figures and by party are available). Similar analysis for the ERS in 2017 suggested around 20% planned to vote tactically then [1].
- Over two thirds (71%) — or 22.6 million - votes were ignored — i.e. they weren't decisive to the local result. This is up from the 68% of votes ignored in the 2017 election [2]. In seven constituencies, more than 90% of the votes were ignored (regional figures and by party are available). Of the 32 million votes cast, only 9.4 million votes (29% of the total) were ‘decisive' in securing a candidate's election. (Full tables at bottom of press release). And 35% of MPs were elected without a majority of support (229 out of 650).
- Warped Westminster: This was a ‘grossly disproportionate' election. Voters in Scotland and the South West of England were handed the most disproportionate results, closely followed by the South East. Around a third of seats in Scotland, the South West, the South East and East of England were ‘unearned' in proportional terms. The scale of disproportionality was a DV score of 16, far higher than the 2017 election score of 9 and the 5-8 score norm for elections with PR systems.
- Disunited Kingdom: Westminster's voting system is leading to ‘absurd' inequalities in representation. For example, in Scotland a substantial Conservative vote share (25%) yielded just six seats (10%), while over 90% of Scottish Labour votes went unrepresented. And there are warning signs for Labour in Wales under First Past the Post (with a drop in seats higher than their vote fell by).
- How it could have been: The ERS have modelled the results under different voting systems, including the Additional Member System (used for the Welsh Senedd and the Scottish Parliament) and the Single Transferable Vote (used for elections in the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scottish locals), based on previously unreleased YouGov polling (see table in notes)
Dr Jess Garland, Director of Research and Policy at the Electoral Reform Society, said:
“It is no wonder trust in politics is at rock bottom — the vast majority of people's votes are being systematically ignored by a voting system that is morally and politically bankrupt.
“Westminster cannot go on like this — all parties must get behind reform of this broken system at long last.
“It's time Westminster caught up with the rest of the UK and ensured seats in parliament reflect how people actually want to vote. No more ‘holding your nose' tactical votes, ignored votes and warped results. Voters are tired of feeling voiceless — and it doesn't have to be this way.
“This research exposes the scale of disenfranchisement that is happening under one-party-takes-all voting. But we can build a fairer politics, where everyone is heard and your vote counts no matter where you are. It's time for proportional representation and real democracy at Westminster.”
The ERS back the Single Transferable Vote [3], used for elections in Ireland and local councils in Scotland.
Unrepresented voters
Voters in Scotland and Northern Ireland fare particularly badly in terms of unrepresented voters, with the choices of 54 percent (Scotland) and 55 percent (NI) of voters going to non-elected candidates. That means that over half of voters there don't have an MP they voted for, in contrast to proportional systems.
Overall, across the UK, over half (51%) of Labour voters saw their votes go unrepresented — i.e. to non-elected candidates — compared to just under a quarter (24%) of Conservative voters.
The Conservative Party was highly over-represented in the South East (88% of seats on 54% of the votes in this region), while Labour was over-represented in the North East (66% of the seats for 43% of the votes) — but both parties lost out in other regions, leading to a ‘warped political map'. For example, in the East of England, where Labour received just under 750,000 votes, 84 percent of their voters were unrepresented, while in London, over half (55%) of Conservative voters went unrepresented.
UK-wide, 92 percent of Liberal Democrat voters went unrepresented, 96 percent of 865,697 Green Party voters, and all of the Brexit Party's 644,255 voters.
ERS analysis also reveals the startling difference in votes needed per party per seat:
- SNP - 25,882
- Conservatives - 38,264
- Labour - 50,835
- Lib Dem - 336,038
- Green - 856,000
Shoe-in seats vs electoral deserts
BMG polling for the ERS revealed that those living in seats classed as marginal received far more election literature than those seats classed as safe for one party or another. Just one in four people (25%) in safe seats reported receiving four or more election leaflets or other pieces of communication through their door compared to almost half (46%) of those in potential swing seats. Nearly three times as many people in potential swing seats (14%) reported receiving 10 or more leaflets or other pieces of communication, compared to just five percent of those in safe seats.
Alternatives
Using exclusive (as yet unreleased) YouGov polling immediately after the election, the ERS have projected the results under different electoral systems — with all three systems more fairly reflecting how voters wanted to be represented.
My conclusion? There are better forms of democracy available to the UK. The trouble is, at least two parties do not seem to want them.
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the ‘regional list’ MSP system is flawed at present in allowing unlimited repeat occupation by a member even if no particular talent, diligence or effectiveness is evident. Plans have been mooted to restrict the number of years one person can take a seat in Holyrood this way. May they hurry up please? We have a few ‘squatters’ in residence atm.
I believe it is received wisdom that the Holyrood voting system was deliberately contrived ( by Labour Party in WM ) to avoid any party obtaining majority. Much weeping wailing and gnashing of teeth must have been heard when SNP managed it one time! Delicious.
@ Hazel:
“….the ‘regional list’ MSP system is flawed at present in allowing unlimited repeat occupation by a member even if is evident…..”
Reform wouldn’t necessarily prevent MSPs taking office with ‘….no particular talent, diligence or effectiveness…”, but at least they would have to have their shortcomings endorsed by a constituency vote.
But I quite agree. Reform is already overdue.
One free pass is reasonable. Two is overly generous and more than two is a licence to be useless.
While the SNP have benefited from FPTP at WM they and the Greens are the only parties to support PR. The LibDems support of a “PR” referendum, which PR in name only was a disgraceful act of stupidity that has set back change. Labour are equally culpable preferring a Tory government to a coalition or compromise with others.
The SNP also want to abolish the Lords.
I do think that we now have a crisis of democracy and it’s legitimacy in the UK thanks to what FPTP has become. I also believe that Brexit made this worse. It is very clear that Brexit was predominantly an English desire. It was essentially English votes that took us out, forcing it on Scotland and NI which voted against. What has made things worse is the direction of the Tory party in the last 3 years.
Some observations.
1) The Tory party likes to present itself as a one nation party. Well, it is now clear that the one nation is England. The vast majority of their FPTP seats are in England and they play to that crowd. They really only like the union of the UK because it makes them feel important and brings back dreams of Empire and greatness, as does Brexit of course.
2) Labour still live with the fiction that it is a two party system. However, the last 40 years has shown that they only win when becoming Tory lite. Their worse defeats have happened when they tried to sell a real radical “socialist” alternative under Foot and Corbyn. England and Scotland rejected it. I expect Starmer (who I quite like) will become Tory lite to win England at the next election.
3) Re 2 above, Scotland rejected Labour because essentially the SNP offered people, I assume, a better left wing and nationalist alternative. Since the Blair years Labour has struggled to make any inroads into the SNP vote. I think it’s game over for Labour in Scotland and anyway they just might get independence, although I can’t see the Tories allowing such a vote. If they did, the Tory English dictatorship would be complete, so maybe they will.
4) We did have a vote to change to PR in 2011 and on a low 42% turnout it was rejected, nearly 68% voted no. Ah, the infinite wisdom of referendums.
5) Around 30-40% of people do not vote in UK national elections for whatever reason. This means that UK Tory and the occasional Lab Governments are rarely returned with more than a third of the total vote.
6) I’m in favour of PR but with compulsory voting. However, it is compulsory voting with a difference. The ballot paper should have a clear “none of the above” option on it. In other words this would show us just how popular our politicians are. I’m guessing that none of the above would probably get a decent vote in most elections and the Tories and Labour would be scared of what that would really tell them. In fact, I would like this version of compulsory voting PR or FPTP.
7) Given what FPTP has become the UK can no longer call itself a 2 party system. Apart from the fact that I have always felt that it is somewhat patronising when politicians tell us that a vote for anyone other than the blessed Tory and Labour party is a wasted one, I think we can now only get back to being a legitimate democracy by introducing PR.
8) With PR, I think we will actually move from a 1/2 party system to a more Progressive left v Regressive right system. Yes, we will have coalitions either of the left or right, but at least those in power would probably have 50%+ legitimacy of parties voted for and seats(not counting the none of the above voters of course).
Unfortunately, the Tories now have a lock on power and love being an elected dictatorship so they will never agree to PR. 2 or 3 more defeats and Labour might support PR, but if Starmer wins next time it will be back to 2 party system politics and the notion that voting for anyone else is simply a wasted vote. Same old, same old I’m afraid. I expect no change.
MarP raises some interesting points.
#1 I’d contest that the Tories “really only like the union of the UK because it makes them feel important”. That’s certainly part of it, but they especially like the fact that the current UK structure enables them to suck wealth and talent out of the devolved lands, Scotland in particular, while treating the peoples of these lands with, at best disdain, but more often contempt. They also like the fact that the legal framework of the devolution settlements makes it very difficult for the devolved nations to secede from the UK. The existence of the UK union also enables them to sit at the top table of the UN and a cessation of the UK union could result in the loss of that ego-boosting status.
#2 I agree it’s likely that Starmer will take Labour to the centre-right, but whether that’s likely to swing the English voters enough is a moot point. However, short of a rupture of the party, Labour will always have a more radical left-leaning cohort, so its policies will always have an element of compromise and the threat of a Left v Right internal struggle simply won’t go away.
#3 A big factor in Labour’s demise in Scotland was its role in the Iraq War. The other major factor was that the SNP demonstrated in power that it had genuine left-leaning credentials and were prepared to make decisions (where the devolution settlement allowed) that were for the clear benefit of the Scottish people (e.g. mitigating many of the worst aspects of Tory policies). This has also driven the increasing support for Scottish Independence as the people recognise that the SNP have been better at the “day job” than Labour ever were when in power and, by extension, that Scots couldn’t make a bigger hash of running our own affairs than we’ve seen from successive Westminster governments.
#4 The 2011 referendum on PR was a token gesture by Cameron to appease the Lib-Dems in the coalition. The fact that it offered a binary choice between FPTP and the scarcely more attractive AV probably had an impact on turn-out. I voted for AV purely on the basis that it would be a partial step in the right direction, but recognised that it was effectively a “fix” to retain the status quo. Had STV been on the ballot I suspect turnout might have been markedly higher.
#6 I agree that compulsory voting might increase turnout but what sanctions would be applied for non- participation? Brazil’s military dictatorship in the 1970s allowed non-participation for people who could demonstrate good reason (e.g. certificated illness, being abroad, in prison etc), otherwise it was jail. I can’t see that being acceptable in the UK, but turn-out could also be improved by making the postal voting system more secure and looking at IT solutions such as already exist in Estonia. I also agree a “none of the above” option on the ballot might encourage people to vote and express a perfectly legitimate opinion on the candidates/parties on offer.
There will always be a spread of opinion across the electorate, so coalitions should be viewed as fairer and more representative outcomes than the “winner takes all” that is FPTP, which inevitably results in unrepresentative governments and hence divisiveness and voter apathy. We just have to ensure the right kind of PR is used and that’ll be another fight.
I looked at the ERS website immediately after the election and was heartened by what I saw. This thing about Labour being ‘trounced’ seems like an over reaction to me. Something else had gone on.
I would prefer proportional representation – a system that puts the country first and make politicians of all backgrounds work together for the common good.
I have always voted Labour up until Iraq. Since 2005 I’m proud to have flirted with the Greens. I do not believe in compulsory voting as I am currently on voting strike. I simply refuse to ennoble any of them in Westminster who besmirch and degrade our sovereign parliament with their half arsed ideas about fiscal policy and sound governance.
PSR’s Requirements from Labour before he ever votes for them again are:
1) Since 2010 I and my colleagues have suffered pay cuts that now mean that I have worked for the Government for the equivalent of nearly one year for free – a year’s take home pay is what I have lost. Give it me back please – tax free (sorry Richard) – or get lost.
2) Under New Labour, my local government final salary pension was reduced to a ‘defined benefits’ pension and yet huge subsidies were given to private pension provision during this New Labour period. Restore my final salary pension or sod off.
3) Please break up as a party into your constituent parts (Blue Labour/Marxists/Blairites/ Democrats – whatever) – so we know what we are voting for and then for goodness sake work together. Otherwise please go and do something else.
4) Please excommunicate Liam Byrne from the Labour Party. His post it note ‘Sorry, there is no money’ is the shortest suicide note in political history. He has to pay. Get him gone – otherwise, bog off.
5) Lose you ‘intense relaxation’ over people getting rich and instead become highly motivated in regulating things like ‘credit default swaps’. Those people whom you let get rich are now funding the Tory Party. Nice one! Duh!! Otherwise, default yourselves and disappear.
6) Rediscover the joy of PR. And instead of beating each other up about it, do what the Tories do and Just Fucking Do It next time you have the chance to do anything good – or just sod off.
7) Lose your fixation, deference and hero worship of America – this is not America. Is that clear? Or do us a favour and go and live there.
8) Lose your fatal attraction to market domination. Markets are not efficient allocators of resources. If you think £365 billion in 2008 (and the rest) was good value for money, then please sod off and do something else.
9) Make Clive Lewis Deputy Leader – or………well you know by now.
10) Start to believe in yourself again and start to believe in the British people whom you have taken for granted for far too long. If you want to bring Clem Atlee back, you’ve got to be like Clem. But leave the property magnate and war criminal Blair out of it. He is spoiled goods. A shame.
PSR out.
@ PSR
I have serious reservations about final salary pension. This rewards vaulting ambition and as you are probably well aware local government senior officers have form in retiring with their pensions inflated by additional income from duties as returning officer.
It may be a difficult sum to get right, but pension entitlement should (IMO) take into consideration the whole period of contribution not just the finishing salary point.
Otherwise, I’m in considerable sympathy with your listed criticisms, and about as likely as you are to ever consider voting Labour again.
Fair enough Andy, but I can assure you that for the many, there is more a steady and moderate growth in salary rather than the jumping up into senior management that creates the wage inflation you allude to.
Andy
All I would say is that the public sector is dominated by low paid skilled workers and then middle management – there are fewer seniors who benefit in the way you say. That is to say that you are right to identify those a the top who take the queen’s shilling to shut up and get the cuts done. But much more people are now paid much less after 10 years of unjustified pay cuts based on lies like ‘the Government is in debt’. In my current role, I am paid 3 grades less than my predecessor – and I’m already doing a better job than he did.
People are also leaving the public sector in droves as private sector wages go up.
Take home pay for me used to be dead on the median wage for me – it is now below that as of this year.
What did I do to deserve that? I – along with many others in the public sector – regularly go over my contracted hours, and rather than getting paid over time, you have to take flexitime – the time back. As you do that, the inbox just fills up with things to do and you get behind. OK, I’m not on a zero hours contract but all I’m saying is that pay and conditions have deteriorated for no good reason.
@ Pilgrim,
“What did I do to deserve that? […] but all I’m saying is that pay and conditions have deteriorated for no good reason.”
What did any of us do to deserve this? Collectively we voted against our best interests, persuaded by a constant barrage of neoliberal, right wing, monetarist hogwash.
And even if you and I didn’t vote for it, we apparently didn’t do enough to persuade others not to. We gave away the foothills and now we have to challenge a well resourced summit with our inadequate arsenal, disillusioned troops, and some indifferent generals.
But are we down-hearted ?
Well yes, a little bit, but we haven’t actually given up.
Oh sorry – there is an 11th requirement for me to vote again for Labour:
11) Stop being handmaidens for modern investment capitalists who – instead of doing wealth creation by creating jobs (which benefits everyone), have worked out that they make more money for themselves by underpaying or not paying people at all and would rather give people an income as intertest bearing debt. Economist Louis Hyman points this out in the documentary ‘The Flaw’. I think his precis is right.
This is one of the real dark sides of ‘globalisation’ for the West. In the future when you go shopping, you won’t be looking at your bank account – you’ll using Experian to check your credit account!! It might be all the money you’ll have, the way we are going.
Thank you PSR
You speak for me but I’m staying in to vote for for the leader who wants to reform Labour
Good luck Northern Leftie.
The best reform Labour can do in my opinion is to disaggregate into its different parts as I say above and then make the party what it actually is – a coalition of progressives – even Blue ones – ran along the lines of PR with each strand committed to co-operation in the national interest. Then maybe they would stop squabbling under a new constitution and concentrate on US. Because out here – some of us are at the end of our tether.