Trump has been desperate to say that the USA is not vulnerable to coronavirus. And it is easy to see why. Most of those supporting him say that this is because of the impact he's had on their 401k - which is what US private pension pots are called. He has delivered big increases in share prices that make share owning America think he is good news for them.
And then there's the chart for the S&P 500 for the last few days:
Twelve per cent of the value of the US stock market has disappeared in five days and rationally there is some distance to go as yet.
And if it continues to travel in that direction the reasons for re-electing Trump disappear. The man will not be a 401k magician after all. And with that mystique gone the likelihood that nearly so many people will vote for him will diminish.
There has rarely been better reason for wanting the S&P 500 to fall.
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As they say: It’s the economy, stupid.
Even if he loses, Trump’s legacy will live on, particularly the damage he has caused to the US body politic and its international reputation. The judges he has appointed to the Supreme Court will be there for decades.
A bit like the irreparable damage Brexit has been and is causing to the UK, domestically and overseas.
Agreed
It’s not just the two Supreme Court judges, it’s the near 200 federal judges that the Republican controlled Senate has confirmed over the past two years (while since November 2018 blocking passing any legislation from the Democrat controlled House) – a good number of whom are assessed by the American Bar Association to be unqualified to hold such high office. However, in a US polity controlled by Trump and ‘Moscow Mitch’ (aka senate majority leader Mitch McConnell) all that matters is these people are ideologically pure – that is, right wing Trumpists. But as with the Supreme Court justices, as Federal judges are appointed for life this is a legacy of a very dark period in US politics that will live on for at least a generation.
Oh, sure, many of the other 861 federal judges too. According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_judicial_appointment_controversies by about a month ago, Trump has made 220 of nominations, of whom 9 were rated as “not qualified” by the ABA, and 7 of them were confirmed. Which is 7 too many, but still less than 1%.
No need to worry, the White House is in charge
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/27/pences-new-mission-coronavirus-controlled-message/
Worth noting that the death rate is higher in the elderly (14.8% vs <1% healthy) and men (2.8% vs women 1.7%). Perhaps being in a high risk group will concentrate the White House minds.
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-some-covid-19-cases-are-worse-than-others-67160?utm_campaign=TS_DAILY%20NEWSLETTER_2020&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=83842644&_hsenc=p2ANqtz–GcaVfrxyqQvTHYLNBKqVKWF4LEdY4HZoH8ICQBJ8LL6I6ZPf2ilotvlwTPL-XGn8HA04fDAltdLFNVQJjpstEQ_E_GAJU_PK58brGsJ_80HtxLHs&_hsmi=83842644
well anecdotally I’m already getting the impression that the younger people are and especially if they own few or no assets then the less concerned they are about the impact upon themselves by the virus,
very rich and very old white folk seem to be the ones shitting their pants over this,
the young, fit and assetless have little risk exposure at present and potential future gains to look forward to,
” hey.. if I survive this I might find getting a job easier, my rent might go down, I might even be able to afford to buy a house!”
Is it not possible that some of the disaster capital hedgies picked this moment to make a killing via short-selling and this triggered some of the algorithms and encouraged many of the rest of the herd to bolt for the exits?
I wouldn’t bet my last cent on it. While I take your point about another Wall Street crash and the 401k issue, whatever bad news continues and/or emerges over the course of the ensuing months he, his loyal cohorts and media buddies will effectively divert the blame while trashing the Dems and maintaining he is the only person who can solve the problems. Logic & rationality won’t come into it. Political gaslighting 101! Just listen to Mike Pence at the recent Troy, MI, rally. ‘4 more years’ will be the mantra – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNItHme_kyE.
And have you been following the Donkey debates? I’m not American yet none of the front-runners strike me as having Presidential appeal, i.e. enough chutzpah, notwithstanding their list of worthy progressive policies. Sadly Sanders is simply too old. The median age upon accession to the presidency is 55 years and 3 months (Wiki). Additionally, their absurd selection process highlights their individual weaknesses & differences rather than promoting unity of purpose. That doesn’t resonate well with Electorates, especially at a time of national crisis.
However …. as referenced here many times … “Events, dear boy, events”. We don’t yet know what the final outcome of COVID19 will be in the US. However, any suggestion of a vaccine or demonstrable slowing down of infections/fatalities and the markets will quite quickly pick-up again. Even so, I return to my point that there is no charismatic Dem knight on a white charger who might convince voters that he/she could resolve the crises more effectively.
As of 29th Feb 2020, I’ll go along with those pundits who predict he will again lose the popular vote – maybe by an even greater number than in 2016 – but will win a 2nd term via the Electoral College. Please let them be wrong!
Forgot to add that maybe, just maybe, Bloomberg could buy the Democratic nomination and give Trump a run for his money – literally & proverbially. His message is simple and unequivocal: ‘Whatever it takes to get rid of the President’. Enough swing voters might buy into it. Any port in a storm. Much will also depend on the Dems ability to get Generations Y & Z out to vote in the right places.
Some good news is that his approval ratings are consistently below those of previous presidents at the same stage: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings.
(I find myself more fascinated by US politics than domestic. Maybe because there’s more at stake for the planet).