The questions that the Labour manifesto poses are threefold. The first is whether their diagnosis of the current state of the economy is right. The second is whether their prescription is right. And the third is whether it will work.
According to some Labour has its diagnosis of the economy wrong. The FT says this morning that:
The British economy is not broken. It has proven remarkably resilient in the face of Brexit uncertainty. Labour's plans would exponentially increase the risks to the economy.
They are wrong. This is not an opinion. It is an objective truth. For example, this is growth data from the TUC:
Growth is poor - and even in a low carbon economy growth in what we can do for each other is good.
There are other indicators that are worse. Take real wage growth, also from the TUC:
Real wage decline is not an indication of an economy that is working. And nor is this distribution of that growth encouraging:
Regulation has come to the assistance of the lowest paid. It's not markets that have helped this section of the population.
The top have done well.
Everyone else has done badly.
And the rest have borrowed (again, from the TUC):
We have considerably more financial stress as a result of these economic failings.
And business is not compensating. This is annual average changes in business investment from the Bank of England:
The forecast upturn is of no consequence. The reality is that all the incentives given to business to invest have not resulted in a response: business does not see why it should spend here, and has not been doing so.
The Financial Times editorial team are, then, wrong: Britain has a broken economy and a broken society and that needs attention. Labour's diagnosis of the issue facing the UK is right.
I will deal with the other issues in subsequent blogs.
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[…] are threefold. The first is whether their diagnosis of the current state of the economy is right. I have already addressed this issue and suggested that Labour's analysis is right: our economy is in need of radical reform. The second question is whether their prescription is […]
[…] are threefold. The first is whether their diagnosis of the current state of the economy is right. I have already addressed this issue and suggested that Labour’s analysis is right: our economy is in need of radical reform. The second question is whether their prescription is […]
How does UK growth compare to the rest of Europe, for example? To Germany and France?
In isolation ou can’t say that the UK has been singularly bad in growth terms, because there a lot more factors than “austerity” at work, aren’t there?
The data is easy to find
We’re doing badly, most especially since 2016
The data is indeed easy to find:
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/EUQ/GBR/DEU/FRA/ITA/ESP
Have you bothered to have a look at it though? Because my guess is you haven’t.
If you had, you would know that the UK has grown faster than the rest of Europe since 2010, and faster than Germany and France.
So you can’t blame the Tory government or “austerity”, unless that has somehow affected every other European economy for the last 9 years. What is more likely to be the cause of lower growth are other, global factors like the trade war are slowing growth in the US, Europe and China.
You chose our period with care didn’t you?
A period of recovery is not indication of a trend, is it? But mysteriously you chose to start then
And please don’t say Labour caused the crash because you’ll look very foolish if you did
Sorry – but you’re clearly here to offer troll style comments with the usual patronising style that all your ilk attach to them
Again, why I feel that I must vote Labour come what may.
I think you and the FT are BOTH correct…… unfortunately, the FT looks at thinks from the perspective of the wealthy who (as illustrated in the orange, real wage bar chart) are doing very nicely….. at least in monetary terms.
This narrow view of well-being is bad news for everyone.