There is only one question this morning that needs answering. If I was an MP, which I am not as yet (and with no intention of changing that, as yet) would I vote for or against Johnson's deal? I am assuming I would as free an agent as Caroline Lucas usually is.
The answer is I would vote against. Of course, that is hardly surprising: I have never yet been convinced of the merit of any leave deal, but in this case that feeling is stronger than usual.
This version of the back stop is particularly bad for Northern Ireland. I think it safe to say that there will be political turmoil there as a result.
It is not good for UK business: the potential level playing field provisions will significantly increase their costs and secure no competitive advantages.
This deal will be an opportunity for worker rights to be savaged.
And environmental protections will, I am sure, be trashed just when we know we need them most.
Nothing sells this deal. And almost every poll in the UK this year says that a majority of people do not want to leave the EU.
Although what will, I am sure, shock the Leavers in the population at large is that because of the transition agreement, which will almost certainly last until the end of 2022, they are really not going to see many changes to the UK on 1 November as a result of what Johnson will do. The Leave media will wholly misrepresent this: expect pictures in the Mail showing lorries flowing through Dover as if this will be a Johnsonian miracle. It won't be. It will be because the EU works and EU rules will still apply.
And another few billion will have been wasted threatening to disapply them.
So, I would vote against the deal.
And I would commit to a People's Vote on it. Because nothing else makes sense. Only that can give closure. I would prefer that vote on Saturday: I understand why it may not happen.
In summary: this is something no wise MP would ever have wanted to vote on because no wise government would have ever let this happen.
But we have learned that we do not have wise government in this country anymore.
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I rather suspect Brexit is serving as a smokescreen for the preliminary stages of the bursting of the everything bubble,
in a situation where you can’t think of anything beneficial to do you can always make yourself look busy by spending an excruciating amount of time & effort desperately failing to do something pointless,
if this Brexit farce could be strung out a bit longer there’s a good chance that the world will become engulfed in the chaos of the bursting of the everything bubble and Brexit will become the trivial side issue it rather was in the first place,
I voted Remain because it seemed the most prudent action in an increasingly unstable and chaotic world,
I’m in favour of another extension, some actors in this farce still haven’t had enough time to make complete fools of themselves.
You’ll be aware, no doubt, of the mixed opinions in Scotland.
Some (rabid) voices are promoting the idea that the SNP should support Johnson’s dog’s breakfast deal, on the (to my mind spurious) basis that this is an EVEL vote. It isn’t. Scotland is still part of the UK and to vote ‘leave’ at this stage would be a gross dereliction of principle in my estimation. If Scotland had been party to negotiating the Withdrawal Agreement the situation would be very different, but so would the WA.
The only time in living memory Scotland supported a Tory government was in backing the Cameron camp to stay in the EU. That didn’t work well, but it was the honest thing to do. The honest, and consistent thing to do now has to be to confirm that 60/40 decision to ‘Remain’ and oppose the current Tory government’s volte face.
The SNP should back the ‘will of the people’ of Scotland, and I think they will. English ire is something Scots have learnt to dismiss as water off a ducks back.
Of all the parties likely to oppose the SNP is the most certain, alongside the Greens, Plaid and maybe Lib Dems- but not, necessarily, all of the last
This “deal” simply establishes the terms of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. The real effort will be applied in establishing the terms of the UK’s future relationship with the EU. And that’s for the next parliament.
And, as for this parliament, it has been resolved only on two EU-related matters: the Brady Amendment to remove the UK-wide backstop and the Benn Amendment to prevent no deal. Ken Clarke’s proposal on remaining in the customs union came closest among the rest (and was defeated only by Lib Dem and SNP abstentions). Brexit fatigue is pervasive (both here and across the EU) and there can be little doubt that there is a widespread popular desire that MPs should sign off on this agreement irresepective of the details.
It is generally accepted that Prof. Chris Hanretty’s analysis mapping the results of the 2016 EU referendum to constituencies presents the most accurate set of estimates. Of the 262 seats Labour won in 2017, he estimates that 169 had leave majorities, 69 had leave majorities in excess of 60% and 10 had leave majorities in excess of 70%. Nineteen Labour MPs in these seats wrote to Jean-Claude Juncker on 8 October in effect expressing their willingness to vote for whatever deal the EU and UK government arrived at – on the basis that the real negotiations about the UK’s future relationship with the EU could then begin . I expect many more Labour MPs representing leave-voting constituencies are coming to a similar view.
This parliament should nod through this agreement and then agree to its dissolution. And then let battle commence.
Paul your argument rests on the assumption that Brexit is the only show in town. It isn’t, to many voters austerity is of much more importance. If Labour can overcome the media bias and get their message across the election result may surprise many.
I hope so
It;’s green too, by the way, albeit maybe for other interest groups, but especially the young
@John Adams,
I fully agree that Brexit isn’t and shouldn’t be the only show in town. But trying to agree any sort of EU withdrawal agreement has rendered this parliament totally ineffectual with regard to the business it should be conducting. That’s why I’m making the case that it’s time to cut the losses, nod this benighted agreement through, dissolve this parliament and elect a new one, so that the things that really matter can be addressed.
I also accept your point about Labour doing much better when it has an opportunity during an election campaign to get its message across. But I fear that Labour under Jeremy Corbyn reached its high point in June 2017. That’s why there is a palpable lack of enthusiasm for an early election among large swathes of Labour members and supporters.
In addition, you could count on one hand the number of those on the Labour front bench who have the basic competence to be in government and many of the badly-needed policy initiatives Labour is advancing are either poorly formulated or badly presented (or both).
The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.
A bit of a cliche, I would agree, but now is definitely not the time to do nothing. Or “nod the deal through”.
When fatigue sets in, that’s when the stars shine. I say this with a little authority, having run a few ultra-marathons. Brexit (or the opposition of) has much the same feel. One foot in front of the other…
Indeed
Even if I am planning to spend the day doing nothing, at all
What would you do”…how about the novel idea of getting a job?..you know a proper one which was productive to the economy and paid a proper wage..practice what you preach instead of continuously having the begging bowl out looking for donations
And there I was thinking being a university professor was a proper job
I wonder what you think people would be taught if there weren’t people thinking it up?
But if you’d like to donate, please feel free – I’ll send payment details
Bit risky -and riske- offering payment for Jill to dominate you. Not sure your wife would approve!
Damn
Donate…..
It would be most interesting to hear what “proper job” Jill Reed has. She clearly imagines a proper job is one that is productive to the economy, whatever that means. Academics do not hold down proper jobs, it seems, by merely increasing the wealth of knowledge possessed by humanity, nor by their analysing the problems afflicting the world and researching possible strategies for alleviating those problems. John Maynard Keynes, Adam Smith, Charles Darwin, Albert Einstein, Isaac Newton, none of them had Ms Reed’s “proper jobs”. For that matter, Charles Dickens, Beethhoven, Mozart, Leonardo da Vinci, Galileo etc never had proper jobs. They of course are the stars in the history of human endeavour. But there are millions of others , including Richard, who are toiling for the betterment of humanity without necessarily holding down Ms Reed’s idea of a “Proper job” .And all the mass of academics, journalists, artists, literary men and women, actors, musicians, etc, toiling away in their small way for the improvement of the human condition and feeling their way through the darkness of ignorance towards the light, are to be dismissed by the smug and arrogant superior Ms Reed as needing a “proper job” to do some useful work that is “productive to the economy”. Christmas is approaching, and she might usefully reach into the probably neglected sections of her library to read the layabout Charles Dickens’s account of those grafters supporting the layabout population of Victorian London, Marley and Scrooge. Maybe then from those pages, she will glimpse a greater truth beyond her narrow little understanding.
🙂
Sure da Vinci had a proper job. Wasn’t he a painter and decorator?
I saw a pick up this morning, one used by a guy who does house clearances, and picks up furniture to be sold in second hand shops (not everyone in my part of the world can afford to buy from John Lewis). on a baffle board at the rear he had painted “bawbag Boris” and along the side was “up yir erse.” If I need to translate any of that for readers from south of the border, I’ll happily do so.
Richard, sorry for the levity, but there is so much I want to say about where this country/these countries stand at the moment, I feel I could write a book. Gallows humour has kicked in, instead…
Johnston and his advisers cannot be trusted and must be apposed along with the press and BBC (No brainer )
This is not government. It’s showbiz.
Assuming the ‘deal’ isn’t found to be illegal by the court case being brought by Jolyon Maugham today Richard, the only way MPs should allow it through is by voting for it on condition that it is set against a second referendum where the other option is to stay in the EU.
The email I’ve got from the People’s vote lot says that the reason the ERG fanatics support it is that we will only have until December 2020 to negociate a new free trade arrangement with the EU (which is insane becasue we already have one now), which obviously is not enough time to do so, so we will then face a ‘no deal’ situation then. Exactly what they’ve always wanted, of course.
And as you say, it involves significant losses to workers and environmental rights; surprise, surprise.
No doubt the lying sycophantic drivel press will represent this as some kind of achievement for the lying charalatan Johnson.
No opposition MP worth their salt should vote for this, but I bet there are enough cowards on the Labour benches who’ll swallow the stupid ‘lets just get Brexit done’ line of argument for Johnson to get it passed with no provision for a second referendum.
I’ll be on the march tomorrow, if only for the chance to be in Parliament Square (if fatigue doesn’t stop me before then) and chant insults about Johnson. How about ‘liar, liar, pants on fire?’
I agree with much of that, although there is a 2022 extension option that I am sure will happen.
I am hoping to be on the march, but the bug I had, and ignored, has returned with a vengeance and so right now I am not sure….a day with a bug on a march does not appeal very much however important the cause
Sorry to hear that Richard. Given the amount of work you do, I think you can be excused frombeing on the March if your bug has returned. Possibly too much work is knocking your immune system?
I’m aware of the need to go slow for the next few days
I’ve also had a pretty stressful year: technically I change jib on 31/10 and that is, I admit, going to help
But getting six academic papers, four chapters and some reports out is quite a lot – and there are two more papers well underway
I was told by a very senior academic in my area that more than two papers a year is impossible….
I’m not fit enough to go on the March today either, Richard. We’ll both be there in spirit, though.
Hope you’re better soon.
Thanks
I think i’m In my second in a row
This time I will slow down for a weekend
Get well!
So the prevailing opinion of polls, pundits and the MSM at large, is that the Tories will pretty much sweep the board in a GE. Admittedly, to sweep the board, they only need 30 odd percent of the vote of the people who can be arsed to turn out, as the “Remain” vote will be split between Labour and the Lib Dems but that’s our FPTP system. And none of our political parties would balk or show any shame at getting in on just a third of the vote. So our veneer of democracy is as thin as the hair on Bojo’s head. The Tories will get in on the back of 15 million people who would, if challenged, agree on the whole that we don’t want to privatize the NHS but should invest more, that we should look to re-nationalise some aspects of public services, that we should protect worker’s rights and the environment, and yet, and yet, they will still vote for the party who quite publicly intend to do the exact opposite.
So my point is, my point is, what is the point? Nothing that has been said or done has changed the mindset of these voters. Nothing that has been said or done has changed the mindset of those elements in the PLP intent on bringing down Corbyn and maintaining the very status quo that has brought them to this point and which will keep them on the opposition benches, at least until they have been deselected or lose their seats at the next election. And nothing that has been said or done will prevent the uninformed demands of a quarter of the population from inflicting misery, chaos and uncertainty on the remaining 50 million. And the fact that Farage and his ilk, including those in the Conservative Party, have bet on this chaos in order to make millions of the back of it, has not made an iota of difference to their supporters.
Nothing that has been said or done has changed anything. And it isn’t because the MSM don’t cover it, or because Cummings is channeling his message through Facebook and Social Media or because people simply don’t have access to the facts. Nothing has changed because people don’t change. They are entrenched in their views and nothing will shift them from them. Even when Brexit turns into the inevitable unremitting disaster we all know it will be, these people will never admit or acknowledge that it was Brexit that caused it. No, it’ll be blamed on Parliament, or the judiciary, or the immigrants, or global warming, or anything, anything at all that isn’t linked to their own flawed decision.
So what do we do? We’ll suck it up, that’s what we’ll do. We’ll suck it up and we’ll make the best of it. We’ve lived through years of Tory governments and we’ve survived. We’ll survive this. But that’s exactly all it will be. Surviving. There’ll be more belt-tightening, greater poverty, more inequality, less opportunity. I see nothing ahead to look forward to. The Tories will consolidate their power and do all they can to ensure they remain in power for as long as it takes to suck all the life and wealth out of the country. And after that, well, they won’t care. They’ll toss it back to us, in it’s charred, contaminated, rubbish-strewn state and we’ll be grateful. Because, despite all the carnage and cruelty and misery that they will have inflicted upon it, the one thing that sets us apart from them, is that we love this land, and we’ll love it, even when it’s broken and on it’s knees.
I note your despondency
And have to disagree: I did believe people can and do change
” I did believe people can and do change”.
Was your use of the past tense intentional?
No, it was bloody autocorrect, I suspect….
Those Labour MP’s who have bought into the Brexit fatigue and lets get it done argument and are wavering on this need to consider the following.
1) Johnson is a born liar. He has just sold the DUP down the river having stood up at their conference a year ago and told them no Conservative PM would do what he’s just done! He stabbed them in the back, which the DUP may well deserve, but it shows how he operates. Anything he offers Labour MP’s in terms of workers rights, standards, etc, simply isn’t worth the paper that it won’t be written on. Once he has what he wants he will stab them in the back on the alter of a free trade agreement with the US, China, India, etc and a race to the bottom.
2) This deal means he can leave with no deal in 2? or 4? years. If that’s his real intention all this cosy talk of our European friends will be accompanied by a sharp blade between their shoulders and a celebration party with his militant tendency ERG in a couple of years. It will also give him another 2-4 years to prepare for no deal. Or maybe he will get a deal, but someone will be stabbed in the back and sold out, the fishing industry, auto, the services sector? Who knows but it is bound to happen.
3) Johnson knows that his electoral bread is buttered largely with that English support that is hardcore Brexit or who will buy into a Brexit fatigue deal without really bothering to check the fine print that comes with it. The FPTP system will most likely give Johnson a landslide on the back of being the man that delivered Brexit. He’s even got Farage worried that he’s stolen his clothes. Labour really has no chance of winning with a leader like Corbyn, they still haven’t learned the lesson of Michael Foot. Middle England and Brexit England will not vote for someone like Corbyn. Enough would rather trust in a liar like Johnson, but at least he’s England’s liar.
So, Labour waverers and one nation Tories need to understand who they are selling out to. For Johnson and the ERG militant tendency, the ends justify the means. Johnson is England’s Blackadder, the man with a cunning (Cummings?) plan.
You are right
I think you’ll find that the Labour waverers are thinking only about their seats and retaining them. And if voting for this deal assures them of that, then that’s what they’ll do. And when Brexit fails to deliver any of the benefits that were promised to these Labour-leave areas, so what? Their electorate won’t blame their Labour MP but the Tory government. So their seat is assured, regardless.
If we’re relying on the conscience of these Labour MPs then we’re well and truly up the creek. Blatant self-interest is what drives them. Had it been Labour values and principles, they would never have gone against the Party whip.
Corbyn is not going to remove the whip from Labour MPs who vote for Johnson’s deal. John Mann thinks there are at least 9 of them. Almost all of the Tory rebels will vote for the deal. Don’t bet on DUP sticking to their word about voting against: I can see them walking through the Aye lobby with various promises in brown envelopes in their back pockets.
My Brexit anxiety is returning. Sadly, I am of the opinion that Johnson will squeak this through.
I blame the Tories mostly, of course I do, but I have to say to Momentum and all of the Corbyn supporters, by refusing to see his blindingly obvious leanings and woeful strategy (and not doing something about it), you have enabled Brexit yourselves.
I feel entirely depressed.
We will survive
But we should hope for more than that
Absolutely!
Human beings do change genetically and culturally. The main problem in the UK is ignorance retarding cultural change.
The forthcoming GE will possibly see the biggest collapse in voter participation ever if the deal goes through which it very likely will do.
Brexit supporters won’t bother because they will perceive that they have achieved their goal and at the margin are sick of it all anyway. Tory remainers will probably stay away as they will be unable to support any other party. Labour remainers will struggle to accept that poor leadership has let them down and would never vote Tory or Lib Dem. For those who are bothered there may be an uptick in Green support but it will not be enough to make a difference.
My one the ground discussions suggest you are assuming a rigidity amongst voters that does not exist
They are deeply fluid in practice
According to these two pundits, you’re correct. Apparently the electorate is more fluid today than for many decades previously, with so many variables and imponderables. Their assessment of voter issues & preferences (not generally discussed in the MSM) I found to be rational & informative. And, although from the right and left of the political spectrum, they were pretty much in agreement which gives some validity to their opinions (I guess) – https://www.channel4.com/news/what-can-we-expect-from-a-brexit-general-election%ef%bd%9cpolitics-where-next. Gripping stuff worthy of Michael Dobbs. There probably will be a tv series at some time in the future.
I will listen
Richard
simon gray says:
“The forthcoming GE will possibly see the biggest collapse in voter participation ever….”
You could well be right about that, Simon. Or totally wrong…… and we’ll see a massive turn out of those who wish to endorse and those who wish to castigate their representatives.
I wouldn’t bet a bent penny on either response. Much may well depend on what candidates have to say in the campaigning stage. I’ve no doubt there will be many fanciful election promises made.
I think turnout will be high….
People have been politicised
I was rather surprised to see this column by Gordon Brown in the Guardian,
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/17/remain-labour-boris-johnson-breakup-uk-eu
it appears, albeit 5 years too late, Mr Brown finally ‘gets it’ and describes a quite reasonable pitch for Reform & Remain,
I’ve alway felt most of the grievances expressed about the EU were actually due to policy decisions in Westminster,
Mr Brown manages to illustrate several examples here,
it’s worth the 5 minutes spent reading, I’d gladly vote for it.
Gordon has smelt the coffee
But he still does not understand Scotland and why they have rejected his Labour Party
And I do mean his Labour Party
That’s a strange comment, I imagine correctly I would say that Gordon Brown understands Scotland much better than you , given he was born and brought up there. Unlike you.
But maybe as an outsider – and I am – I try to assemble evidence rather than project a purely personal viewpoint
What you suggest is no one can study another’s work, idea, locale or philosophy and really understand it
That’s a pretty big suggestion that undermines the way almost all human knowledge progresses
It
Matt B says:
“I was rather surprised to see this column by Gordon Brown in the Guardian,…”
I’m no longer surprised by anything Gordon Brown says. For the most part I wish he wouldn’t say anything.
🙂
Well, here we go. Here’s a suicide pact:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/18/labours-melanie-onn-declares-intention-to-vote-for-brexit-deal
So what we have here is a Labour MP wanting make the lives of her constituents worse whilst proclaiming to wanting to make them better.
So, this is the New Labour still at it then is it? Or is it actually the real Left? Voting in polices that make their constituents lives worse in order to give them a job on nearly £80K a year whilst pretending to make a positive impact. It seems like Onn is creating a need for her to be in her job by making things worse. It’s nothing but a form of poverty slavery – deliberately creating poor people and then creating a well paid job for yourself to pretend to be addressing it and looking after the poor.
It’s disgusting. Melanie – it’s not Onn – OK? What a dipstick.
Dire
I’ve just tuned into the ‘debate’ to see Theresa May lecturing the Commons about voting for Boris’ deal.
Is this what passes for debate? All she has done is made negative responses to the SNP and Labour plus also made it clear that she saw the referendumb as an instruction – not an advisory.
And then Boris – telling the commons now how excellent Parliament is, even though his Attorney General was slagging it off not so long ago, saying that is was crap!
But all she has done is soak up valuable time. How many more useless and cringeworthy monologues will we have to endure today?
‘Super Saturday’?
‘Stupor Saturday’?
‘Stupid Saturday’? – yes – that’s more like it.
I have been doing a very quiet day and for my own health did not watch it
But I did follow updates
It seems only Keir Starmer did well…..
Get well soon Richard.
To me it sounds as though you could do with a breather and a least one day totally off.
What’s one of them?
🙂