So, the UK economy is at risk of recession.
No, that's not, per se, a Brexit comment. Most of the world's major economies are on the brink of recession. I am not claiming for a moment that this is our issue in isolation.
On the other hand, we're helping. The crisis has a number of causes. Trump's trade wars. Brexit. The rise of populism. The German insistence that they will not deficit spend despite their crumbling infrastructure. And a world dependent on debt fuelled consumer spending. If you want a recipe for a down turn we have one. We're just a bit of it.
And this time I think few doubt recession is coming. It's hard to see how this combination will fail to deliver the downturn that has been delayed for longer than I suspected, given all the failings of austerity.
What we know is that austerity cannot happen this time. There is nothing left to cut without enormous harm resulting.
And we also know interest rates cannot go down much further, although significantly negative rates are possible, but the impact is likely to be limited.
Conventional QE might also achieve little now, but will increase income and wealth divides still further. When these divides have been a major factor in the failure of the economy to recover from 2008 no one should want that.
The economic armoury is, then, bare. Barring one thing that is. And that is the Green New Deal.
The Green New Deal was written in 2008 in anticipation of an economic downturn. It provided the argument as to how to both avoid the consequences of that downturn, and achieve social, environmental and economic goals all at the same time.
As Larry Elliott is prone to say, when we wrote the Green New Deal we never intended it to be the only economic game in town. But the simple fact is that now it is.
This time let's make the downturn the start of something different. We have to, for all our sakes.
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Hear, hear.
I expect you may not have had time to pick up on it, but John McDonnell put on an exceptionally impressive performance on the Jeremy Vine Radio 2 show yesterday:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0008wfg
He had the most of a half an hour. It starts at 1:26:40. Brexit took up the first 15 minutes and the discussion of the GND starts at 1:42:00.
Broadcasting statistics suggest that the Jeremy Vine Show has a considerable reach in to the hearts and minds of “middle England”. John’s calm, measured, reasoned approach (cultivating this impression of an old-style, experienced, reaassuring bank manager) is pitch perfect for this audience. He runs the risk of usurping Tony Benn’s previous role as Tory voters’ favourite socialist. He has worked hard to cultivate a position of quiet competence ready for government. It is significant that, while they take a swipe at him from time to time, the right-wing tabloids struggle to make anything stick and direct most of their vitriol at Jeremy Corbyn.
Unfortunately, it is Corbyn who is running for PM and that’s why John will never become Chancellor of the Exchequer. Ironically, he would be the much more voter-friendly candidate for PM, but he would never have secured the adulation of the young idealists and the returning Militant supporters who propelled Corbyn in to the Labour leadership.
Yes, John was impressive. He said to a group in Glasgow last month that he learned everything he knows about press management and communications from his close friend Jeremy Corbyn, who obviously sufferes from intense Corbynphobia, which you allude to.
Tony Benn is only the Conservatives’ favourite socialist because he is dead. If it’s true (remember, I never trust anything a Con says about politics or economics), then they do not realise that the wonderful Campaign Group (founded to consolidate Benn’s democratic socialism within Labour after his defeat) is the restorative force of Labour and – victory permitting – the country.
I think the ferocious anti-Corbynism isn’t personal, but is very political. Politically and personally McDonnel and Corbyn are just two sides of the same coin, and the asserted un-electability of Corbyn is mainly a construct, not true, not verifiable. The opinion formers could easily present JMcD as a dangerously committed marxist, but they don’t (any longer), probably because it wouldn’t be an electoral disincentive for most voters. The same applies to ABC.
Private polling convinces Labour that A B C (anyone but Corbyn) campaigns seem to be having a positive effect on the very electoral segments who initially disliked him and against which ABC is targeted (Labour’s core voters and supporters). Corbyn becomes a market of “real Labour” and disproves the cynical nihilism and weary defeatism that says of politicians and political parties “they’re all the same”.
Oscilation between boom and slump is not the issue, is it? It happens, more frequently the weaker the economy becomes. The recession might be international and near-ubiquitous, but there will always be enough vultures to recycle capital and keep the system working, the capital being accumulated
A conjectural crisis can only be discussed in connection with the specific conditions involved in the given case. The UK’s attempted withdrawal ffrom EU is a small local issue in this. Austerity isn’t. Imposed by central banks everywhere, its fruit is regression and depression.
If this “something different” is to happen, it will be because the political challenges the market for the right to identify and prioritise needs and issues, nothing more, nothing less. The only national party that is certain to challenge market primacy and jump-start political discourse and action is Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour.
This makes many people more uncomfortable than even brexit.
“Liberal Democrat MP Jamie Stone offered a disturbing insight into his party’s thinking this week when asked what he would choose between Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister or a disastrous ‘no deal’ Brexit. His answer couldn’t have been clearer: “No deal every time”. ” – https://labourlist.org/2019/10/will-the-lib-dems-help-boris-johnson-deliver-no-deal/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+LabourListLatestPosts+%28LabourList%29.
So it seems, GND, economic rebalancing, a revival of fiscal planning, the national Education Service, restoration of safety-net welfare and even the option to accept a renegotiated ‘sensible brexit’ or no brexit at all might not happen. And all because LibDems and other militant centrists value their neoliberalism so much that they’d rather support a No-Deal and yet more austerity than embrace the opportunity that the Corbyn project offers country.
I didn’t know anyone had actually drafted a Green New Deal, with or without the participation of a ruling party. Can you link to it?
The GND has always been drafted by independent people in the UK
We have no formal ties with any party even if some group members are clearly linked
I, of course, think you are correct on this Richard, but unfortunately don’t have the leverage to help effect the implementation of the GND.
Sort of off topic here, a question: so financial services are abandoning Brexit Britain (London),
https://truepublica.org.uk/united-kingdom/financial-services-industry-slowly-abandons-britain-ahead-of-brexit/
but I don’t understand how it is that the brexiteers would support this? It must have been anticipated, and it is happening with nothing being done to stop it happening, but surely the financial services are just about all that’s left of value for export from Britain (London) – it would seem to me to be a bigger threat to ‘taking back control’ in the neoliberal idealistic world than the so-called negotiating stance of causing extreme uncertainty. Do the financial services industry actually contribute anything to the economy? Will this speed up the decline into recession? Does it have any effect at all?
That was several questions I know, just trying to see how it fits into the strange behaviourally bizarre imaginary model I have of the world just now.
I personally don’t see the reduction in this industry as a bad thing, except that any huge shift without a counterbalancing increase in other industry is never a good sign. Can you put it in context for me at all?
The common-sense of a Green New Deal has to be set against those Brexit Barmies intent on reducing the UK’s consumer standards, environmental standards and workers’ rights:-
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-brexit-environment-rules-trump-trade-deal-a9143221.html
On the subject of change, and that there is unlikely to be much media coverage, here is a live stream of a march for independence in Edinburgh today – started at 1pm, and when I was watching (2.20pm approx) the camera seemed to be filming people still starting off (I think that was Arthur’s Seat in the background)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PUGopvJQ-Uo
It is not very interesting, but gives a feel for the peaceful and positive nature of independence marches, and shows how much support there is for this particular change. The YouTube title says ‘protestors’ but they aren’t protesting against anything, they are marching in support of something. Whatever the current support is for Yes to independence, polling has consistently shown for years now that the majority in Scotland would like another independence referendum.
Scotland is often, usually, relegated to spectator status when it comes to uk politics, and really independence will be the only way we can ever have a say on what happens to our country etc. Bring on the GND in an independent Scotland – a long way to go, and still a lot of convincing to be done to get the public and politicians all behind a GND, but I believe it can be done.
So do I