There is a logic to what Boris Johnson is doing with regards to Brexit. It's easy to spot. It is that by saying he will not blink Ireland, the EU, or both, will. That is his whole strategy. It is based on three premises.
The first is that he is tougher than them.
The second is that the UK is more important to either than their own domestic concerns.
And third, it is based on the belief that they will agree that keeping Johnson and his party in power is more important than anything else they might have previously thought of.
The first of these suggestions is easily dismissed. Johnson's has already lost his majority and control of parliament, which has already legislated to prevent him getting his way. He has very little power at all.
The third can also be dismissed: it is very hard to imagine that any country is that keen to keep Johnson in power. Usually they would be indifferent to whoever held office in the UK, accepting this to be a choice for us alone. But with Johnson I suspect indifference is not an option. Can you be indifferent to someone who treats you with contempt?
So let's get to the second issue. And let's start with Ireland, because although it does not determine EU policy if it remains determined that does settle the matter for the EU.
As someone who has self identified as Irish since I realised I had the choice, and has always considered himself a nationalist (which is not in anyway an endorsement of violence, for those inclined to misinterpret such things) I can see no way at all that Ireland is going to agree the UK position on Johnson's deal.
Johnson wants to suggest that the Irish border is a mere technicality of little consequence: that was apparent from his speech yesterday. There may be many in the Britain (I use the word advisedly, but I might even need to clarify it as England) who share this view. He, and they, are wrong. This is not some mere technicality: this is about Irish identity.
It baffles me that however many times it is now said that there are some politicians that do not realise that the whole essence of the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement is that it simultaneously allows Unionists to identify with the UK whilst nationalists, north and south of the border in Ireland, can identify as being Irish within a single united island - which the very obvious absence of a border implies to be the case. And in that context not only is any border - as Johnson now wants - deeply disruptive economically, it is profoundly politically unacceptable to the vast majority in Ireland as a whole, north and south.
It takes the most extraordinary misunderstanding of Irish history, of which only a Tory is probably capable given their long history of miscalculation on this issue, to not comprehend this fact. Technicality is almost inconsequential when it comes to the border - although the fact that there is very obviously no technical solution in what Johnson has to suggest compounds the incomprehension as to his actions. What matters is the issue of identity, and there is no way on earth Ireland is, after centuries of struggle against English oppression, going to concede anything that compromises that identity now.
And that is precisely why Johnson is wrong about who will blink first. Johnson thinks that on the technicalities he is bound to win: he can't see why they're worth arguing over. But the reality is that Ireland, and so the EU, is operating on a wholly different agenda and appraisal scale, which Johnson appears not to know exists.
The EU and Ireland will play with care. What they will do is point out all the issues, such as the absurdity of there being two borders, and not one. They will point out that technically the proposed schemes cannot work, as is undoubtedly true. And they will be patient, because they're good at that. They will leave the UK parliament to point out the illegality of what is proposed, because it is also undoubtedly that. But will they blink? There is no chance of that. Johnson has got this very, very wrong. He isn't the first Tory to do so. I just hope he is the last.
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Agreed.
Vocubulary moment. As someone who is committed to an independent Scotland. I do not describe myself as a Nationalist. The word is contaminated with all sorts of racist overtones. I prefer Independinista. I have a longer post-Westphalian rant that I shall spare everyone. I wish Johnson would stop repeating truths from the seventeenth century, oh no I’ve started the rant….
When BREXIT was conceived – even No Deal – let’s face it, the border issue in Ireland and the GFA was never even considered – not at all.
It is plain and simply a symptom of the extremism that is driving BREXIT.
There are times when one needs to be Alexandrian and cut the knot rather than undo it.
But this is more like playing with fireworks whilst sitting on top of a keg of gunpowder .
The British Conservative Government agreed to the ‘backstop’ because it was the only solution the British and EU could find in three years of detailed negotiations that respected the international undertakings given by Britain under the Good Friday Agreement. Here is the wording of the Withdrawal Act 2018, Section 10 (2):
“10 (2)
Nothing in section 8, 9 or 23(1) or (6) of this Act authorises regulations which–
(a) diminish any form of North-South cooperation provided for by the Belfast Agreement (as defined by section 98 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998), or
(b) create or facilitate border arrangements between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland after exit day which feature physical infrastructure, including border posts, or checks and controls, that did not exist before exit day and are not in accordance with an agreement between the United Kingdom and the EU.”
I submit that the Boris Johnson Conservative Government’s latest proposal to the EU can only be reconciled with this undertaking through the disingenuous resort to sophistry.
You are right
Yes he is – having read some of the text myself now, I’ve never seen so much written about…well nothing really. It uses volume to appear serious. No doubt it will bolster the troops on the Leave side.
Richard,
So how would you propose dealing with Ireland/N.Ireland if, for the sake of argument:
– Brexit must be delivered,
– and the UK will not accept the backstop?
If the UK cannot accept the backstop it cannot deliver Brexit
It cannopt ride roughshod over the commitments it has already made
Are you saying it should?
That’s a problem entirely made in Britain (England) so they are the only ones who should be tasked with answering.
Richard,
Neither of your statements answering my question are necessarily true. I think your logic may be faulty, perhaps due to wishful thinking.
If the UK doesn’t accept the backstop and Ireland/EU won’t accept any alternative then there’s a reasonable chance UK leaves with no deal and Ireland ends up with the main thing they are trying to avoid – a hard border.
At the same time you and many other remainers believe Johnson wants no-deal and his proposal is designed to fail.
If that’s true then, by refusing to engage to find a real compromise, Ireland is staking everything on Johnson being unable to deliver no-deal Brexit at any point in the future.
I get why remainers and the EU itself are keen for Ireland to take that chance: it allows one more shot at cancelling brexit altogether.
I don’t get why Ireland would be quite so keen to pass up on potentially the last opportunity to avoid the immediate imposition of a hard border. They have more to lose than everyone else so I think there is more chance they blink than you would like to accept.
Adam
I admit you are getting boring
Just go and look at the facts – this Deal is dire and built on assumptions that cannot hold true or are abusive e.g. the DUP veto
Why would anyone agree to such absurd demands?
Give a good reason or stop your only faulty and time wasting comments
You’re only deluding yourself
Richard
Richard,
If the DUP veto is “abusive” then the backstop, being an effective nationalist/EU veto, is also abusive.
And you know what else is abusive? Ranting at me that I’m boring and insinuating I’m amoral simply because I dare to criticize your logic. I’m not an anonymous troll so please don’t treat me like one.
Anyway, I clearly don’t expect Ireland to accept Johnson’s deal as is – just that they may decide to negotiate and see where it gets them in the time available. Then they can make a choice between accepting a deal or taking their chances with UK elections and a possible second referendum.
Why not address that actual point? Why should we expect Ireland to be so confident in remain winning out at the last moment that Ireland don’t bother engaging with Johnson?
Adam
Your time here is over
The backstop is about a nation state and the rules of the 27 members
You miscast things and I am very bored by it
Please don’t call again
Richard
Richard,
You can’t answer my question so you abuse me and then ban me. You’re embarrassing yourself mate.
You’re not alone though. Your completely absurd behaviour is sadly symptomatic of so-called debate these days. Everyone winnowing their individual echo chambers down till they are a perfect reflection of themselves.
It’s actually also a victory for the real trolls. They’ve got you so paranoid and irritable you are happy to cull normal members of the public from your blog.
That’s all boring – intensely so.
Good-bye and good luck.
Adam
You have not answered the questions
Whilst facts appear to be an impediment to you
And that contravenes the comments policy: you’re being repetitive without having an actual argument, whilst being irritatingly offensive, repetitively
Richard,
This is your Blog, and it is your call. Nevertheless, I am disappointed to see Mr Sawyer excluded. I assume he comments under his own name, and he does not seem to me to be a troll. I also seem to recall that I have disagreed with him in exchanges of comments, and while some of his recent remarks appear to me eyebrow raising, some real differences of opinion are unavoidable. Differences cannot necessarily be resolved, or reasoned away as misunderstandings of fact: they can only be acknowledged. In Isaiah Berlin’s terms, some differences are incommensurable.
I see this as a microcosm of the divisions produced by Brexit. I believe that too many Brexiteers have confused and conflated the idea of democracy with elective dictatorship. Unfortunately our constitution in Britain is devoid of mechanisms to prevent the oppression. The American revolutionaries understood this over 200 years ago, when Madison crafted the American Constitution as a rebuttal to Britain’s arrangements. The significance of that event is still beyond us. What we have is angry and intolerant Brexiteers who cannot win with grace, see the limitations of their own expectations or seek genuine compromise: victory, for them entails the utter annihilation of opposition. It reaches comic proportions when they propose that somehow Britain is going to “unite” after a no-deal Brexit. They confuse the beginning of divisions they have sown, with the end. They think it is all over on 31st October. It has only just begun. Nothing will have changed in Britain. Nothing. This is their problem.
At the same time, the intolerant Brexiteers are among us. They are “us”. This is our problem. We need to find a way to resolve, or at least find a ‘modus vivendi ‘ for both problems. We need to communicate. Speaking purely personally, and without wishing to challenge your prerogative, I am disappointed that Mr Sawyer is not part of the continuing dialogue.
If he was not patronisingly rude quite so often maybe he could have been
But I can get bored with being told I am being blinded, etc, etc
That’s passive aggressive trolling
Mr Sawyer,
I comment here because generally it is a relatively calm and civilised centre of discussion on contemporary economic, financial and political issues (that interest me), especially compared to a wider social media environment that so rarely rises above the level of the squalid bear-pit; and is content to destroy in preference to debate.
It is Richard’s blog, and he has to set the rules that allow this exchange to take place. In providing this service he has to take a great deal of trolling and very personal and reprehensible attacks; not all of which he quashes rather than publishing. Nobody who comments has to endure this level of abuse, often from calculating and organised trolling. In my opinion Richard is entitled to be “cut some slack” by commenters who are liberated from the squalor of providing the space to comment here.
You would be entitled to say it is not my business, but I respectfully ask you to rise above your annoyance and be gracious.
As an Irish passport holder, you are justified in identifying as Irish, which is more than can be said for your self-identification as an economist, tax expert, political theorist or informed commentator on current events.
I don’t self identify as those things
Others did it for me, including my current employer
Is there any other country in the world, apart from England, that believes the annexation of Northern Ireland is a good thing?
Polls have shown that the majority of leave voters are happy to lose Northern Ireland (and Scotland, for that matter) from the uk. So why is Boris so intent on keeping it as part of the U.K., it’s the biggest issue for coming to an agreement, so allow a border poll, and if they want a united Ireland, then let it be so, then brexit would not be dependent on thorny international legal agreements. Surely giving the people of Northern Ireland a choice is the logical way forward – if they decide to stay in the uk then a solution will need to be found, because the good Friday agreement still stands – but if they don’t, then they are part of Ireland and the EU and all is well (ish). It would not reduce Boris’ leave voting popularity, in fact might enhance it. He’s just at it.
“not only is any border – as Johnson now wants – deeply disruptive economically, it is profoundly politically unacceptable to the vast majority in Ireland as a whole, north and south.”
Since there are different political parties and governments, different legislative and judicial systems, different criminal processes, different national regulations, different personal and corporate taxation levels, different excise rates, different VAT and a whole different currency….and all these, magically, don’t contravene the GFA and acceptable to all…yet a set of different tariffs isn’t?
Smells like a fishy red herring to me.
Wow
There are the same regulations across the border
And no VAT
Or excise duties
Do you have a clue what you are talking about?
Ireland won’t blink — it won’t on principle and it’s certainly not going to undermine its own position just to accommodate any misguided plans coming from a UK Gov. Nobody in Ireland, North or South, wants a border, but Boris’s plan requires two of them! Nobody in the Irish business communities, North or South, wants a border or increased bureaucracy as that simply makes their businesses less viable and passes increased costs on to customers.
The DUP does not represent the people of NI: it may have gathered more votes than any other party in the 2017 General Election, amounting to 36% of the votes cast. FPTP translated that into 56% of the NI seats, but since Sinn Fein doesn’t take up its seats at Westminster, DUP has 91% of the effective NI seats. This distortion gives them undue influence, particularly when it comes to Brexit. DUP supports Brexit, but NI voted by 56% to 44% to remain in the EU, so the DUP cannot claim to represent the opinion of the people of NI and is clearly acting against the will of the majority.
Given all that, Boris’s proposal to give the DUP an ongoing effective veto can never be acceptable to the majority of the people of Ireland, North or South, or to the Irish Government and, by extension, the EU. If that’s not enough, there’s also the undermining of the Good Friday Agreement and the shredding of the UK’s obligations under an International Treaty. The implication that some form of customs installations will be required on or near the land border could result in competing terrorist factions lining up to bomb them.
I think therefore that the UK Gov proposal is designed to fail, thereby increasing the chances of a No-deal Brexit, which is looking increasingly like Johnson’s preferred outcome all along.
I agree Ken
Addendum to my post at October 3 2019 at 10:33 pm:
Another very good reason why Ireland won’t blink (and why Johnson’s real intent is to precipitate a No-deal Brexit) lies in the pivotal role his proposals give to the Stormont Assembly, which hasn’t sat in almost three years and shows little sign of ever reconvening. If it were to reconvene it would probably require a full revelation of the DUP’s role in the “Cash for Ash Scandal” by a judicial enquiry before Sinn Fein is likely to agree to talks about reconvening. This can of worms isn’t going to go away anytime soon, so a post-No Deal-Brexit election for the NI Assembly could prove disastrous for the DUP and change the balance of power in NI. I’ve always felt that any dissolution of the UK is likely to result from events in NI and that Scotland (and now perhaps Wales too) would follow in quick succession, but NI has greater inherent political instability and is therefore more likely to cause the house of cards to come tumbling down.
You may well be right
There are not.
VAT rates differ. Irish VAT is 23%, but reduced rates of 13.5%, 9%, 5% or 4.8% may apply to some areas. Different to UK rates.
Currency? Laws? Judicial jurisdiction? Income Tax? TV coverage? Insurance? all everyday stuff – all different. Why is all this acceptable under the GFA if different tariffs are not?
The myth that the GFA forbids difference is nonsense, its central principle is that NI’s status remains unless consent for change is given.
As a passionate remainer and a passionate supporter of the GFA I’m dismayed at how the subject has been cynically used by those who care little for Northern Ireland and its people.
For the purposes of import / export – which is the issue that matters VAT is completely integrat3d, there is no tariff and regulation is the same
All the rest – even currency which is easy to manage – is utterly inconsequential to the debate
If you do ‘t know that go and find out the real issues and stop making up arguments that are irrelevant
“All the rest — even currency which is easy to manage — is utterly inconsequential..”
Thats a very weak argument.
That somehow everything that was different and divergent either side of the border before Brexit is ‘inconsequential’ yet one more point of divergence that may emerge totally contravenes the GFA. Frankly it’s nonsense.
As perhaps uniquely on this forum I’m someone who has conducted cross-border business, the idea stated in your post “the very obvious absence of a border…” is pure fantasy. There was significant work and effort involved in bridging the divergence across the two jurisdictions and will continue to be so.
I have done cross border trading
Sorry – but I disagree with you
I stand by my comment and suggest yours is simply not true
And nobody even mentions Gibraltar
I don’t see why Ireland would blink. It has the full support of the EU, its economy will be protected, funding has already been agreed and any other support needed will be given in case of no deal. Varadkar knows it, there are 26 countries behind his.
Unlike Johnson who is considered an untrustworthy fool in Brussels and in all European countries, bar perhaps Poland and Hungary, Varadkar is highly thought of and respected. He knows that, as he knows Brussels will keep its side of the deal. Trust matters in politics, even at that level.
And Brussels will wait for Johnson to fail. They know he will.
They all know the return of borders would awaken political demons who never went away.
The Real IRA are still around, borders are like lights to moths for those very few but very destructive people.
The whole of Ireland fears it, but are also determined to stop them coming back, North and South.
Some say it may spur a move towards reunification…but at what cost in those circumstances? It doesn’t bear thinking about. Circumstances have to be right if ever this happens.
Anyway, No Deal is not an option, Johnson and his cabal can be defeated.
The quibblings here about technical divergences between VAT rates and so on miss the point. They are not the issue. The issue is identity. No Brit has ever been stopped going about their daily live in the UK by a foreign soldier. No part of the UK has been subject to ethnic cleansing, nor have the British ever been subject to the kind of oppression the Irish endured and, in NI especially, still massively resent and which still continues, even now (Stormont is suspended because unionists are vetoing the introduction of an Irish language act, something the UK govt committed to do, in writing).
Constructive abrogation of the GFA as Boris Johnson proposes is not acceptable to the overwhelming majority of the people on the island of Ireland, North and South. The regulatory divergences and customs checks etc. wreck Strand 2 of the GFA on the development of the all-island economy. That is not going to happen no matter how much the DUP would like to preside triumphantly over red, white and blue ashes after their scorched earth Brexit. If the English want another civil war in Ireland they can have it, but it will not go well for anyone. Peace is a far better idea, and much cheaper.
Is it really necessary to point out that NI is being told it must leave despite voting to Remain, that a majority in NI supports the backstop, and that polls have shown a majority in favour of Irish unity in the event of a hard Brexit? In the circumstances Johnson’s approach is utter folly. Yes, the Irish want their country back, but the GFA and the principle of consent was accepted by 94.4% and 71.1% in Ireland and NI respectively. There is no mandate for what Johnson seeks to impose.
Again, it’s not about movement of goods across a line on a map
https://twitter.com/castlvillageman/status/1162102541708156928?s=09
Fortunately, this time the Irish have friends. They will not agree a deal without the backstop or workable alternative measures that are consented to by NI, and they have the support of 26 EU governments. The days of the English imposing on the Irish with impunity are over. One could hardly have a better advert for the EU’s soft power. Not just will the EU not throw Ireland under the bus, the UK will get no US trade deal if the GFA is adversely affected by Brexit. The Democrat controlled House of Congress values the GFA, seemingly more than the UK’s Conservative party. Of course, it was to a significant event a result of American diplomacy after endless British coercion failed.
Richard’s take is entirely correct. There is zero chance the Irish govt will acquiesce voluntarily to anything violating the GFA. It wouldn’t just be British border installations that would be attacked. Varadkar’s party consented to “temporary” partition of the country 100 years ago and the bitterness of nationalists, in the north especially, is still reflected in the fact that the main political parties in Ireland are defined by their side in the Civil War over partition.
Anyone who thinks the English will not be affected if, as Stanley Johnson put it so crassly, “the Irish start shooting each other”, has forgotten (or never knew of) the Brighton bomb, the Baltic Exchange, Warrington, Warrenpoint etc or the billions spent on security that could have been spent on schools and hospitals. Better to realize that treating NI as chattel, when in law it is a contingent part of the UK, is a mistake and avoid the grief of relearning it the hard way.
Ireland and the EU will be ready in due course to agree sensible arrangements with a sensible UK govt. If it’s after a no deal Brexit the British may find the Irish veto on any EU trade deal very humbling. It’s not something the Irish aspire to use, contrary to some inane assertions in ERG quarters about Irish motivations. But if push comes to shove the Irish know the real “Titanic success” belonged to the iceberg. Ireland will not be moving. Peace demands it. The soft power of the EU makes it possible.
@Samuel Johnson
Thats a load of sectarian claptrap not worthy of this blog.
Your second last paragraph appears to celebrate Irish Republican terrorism and you display a breathtaking ignorance of the suffering and views of the northern Unionist population of Ireland.
“No part of the UK has been subject to ethnic cleansing” – ever glanced at the statistics of those killed in border communities during the troubles? Or on the west bank of the Foyle?
Disappointing that you get away with such bile on this forum.
Apologies
I obviously did not pay enough attention
I am in no doubt that the Johnson/Cummings plan is for the EU to reject the proposal in its entirety. This will give Johnson the opportunity to claim…”I tried…they don’t want a deal!” We will then crash out w/o any deal whatsoever…. I have growing doubts regarding the psychological stability of Johnson… Cummings is already ‘over the edge’…!
The next step is a GE…. which BJ assumes he will win w/o any problem. He may well be correct as his main plank will be “I kept my promise… We’re out of the EU” (I doubt if he will be as restrained as that…!)
I would suggest that he may well win a majority in England but a) Scotland will reject him & his party in even greater numbers than at present and b) an Irish cross-border poll, as allowed for in the GF agreement, will result in Irish reunification.
Quite what will happen in Wales I’m unsure… there is a growing demand in Wales for independence but there are certainly more Tory party members in the valleys of Wales than there are in the glens of Scotland…!
Some of your correspondents seem to be a little naive and blasé about just how complex politics is on the island of Ireland. The complexity and dangers have been present for centuries and are embedded in the nature of Irish sovereignty and British rule. Sovereignty being such an important issue for those demanding Brexit you would have thought there would be a greater understanding of a matter so critical to Irish politics.
The distillation of the problem down to one of a mere technical issue shows the current British Government up as having little regard for the history of Britain, England and Ireland. The current relatively peaceful accommodation that exists has been hard fought for by the population of the island of Ireland and should not be treated in a cavalier fashion. To try and push through border changes in a matter of weeks without proper discussion and the full involvement of all of Ireland is a disgrace and is treating those in the country with huge disrespect solely for the sake of an ill thought out policy of the Conservative party.
A lot of interesting comments here about the absurdity of Johnson’s proposal. I think actually that the best description of what this so-called offer really is came from, of all people, Melanie Phillips on last night’s QT.
Her take, as a convinced Leaver, was that this is all pure politics intended for domestic consumption in the UK. It has several purposes:
1 – To give the impression that Johnson is trying to be reasonable, so shifting the blame for a no-deal onto the EU and/or the Irish government.
2 – To see off the threat to a majority in a GE from the Brexit party, by using the inevitable failure of this ‘offer’ as a further excuse to pursue ‘no-deal’ .
3 – By enabling the above 2 options, to ensure that Johnson remains as PM, which is what he desires above all.
Obviously, he couldn’t care less about the awful consequences of this, any more than the anti EU fanatics in the Tory party, or the idiots in the electorate who actually take him seriously do.
Greetings friend..
I think your subscription manager needs a word…
Despite my ‘advising’ him earlier today that I didn’t want to receive any further notifications on any posts.. (nowt personal y’ken). I find that I’m still receiving them…(?)
A swift, tho’ not necessarily severe, talking to will I’m sure……
I admit I have no control over this
Once you have chosen one way I think it irreversible
Apologies