Do we have to discuss Brexit? Again? I suspect that we do. Much as I would rather not.
My reaction to last night's vote was rather more graphic than the language I usually publish, or even use that much. It was:
We're fucked
No deal here we come
Shit
I apologise for the rawness. It was how I felt then. And to a large extent it is how I feel now as well. The failure of the Commons to find a way through this is utterly baffling when this is a problem wholly of their own creations, for both allowing Article 50 without a plan and voting to leave with No Deal as a default.
Of course I blame the Tories. This is a problem of their creation. They have to take much of the responsibility for this mess.
But Labour failed to back the Joanna Cherry amendment last night that attempted to block No Deal, making it all the more likely as a result. That was unforgivable.
And too many MPs are still standing out for unicorns - options that are simply not available - all of which mean May can still, in her state of delusion, think her option is still possible.
What happens now? Of course I do not know. No one does. Except that April 12 looms large and I am now back to thinking there is an 80% or more chance of No Deal on that day when before 10pm last night I was rather hoping we would go well below 50%. But there are still matters worth considering. Several stand out.
First, Nick Boles may compromise on his motion now he has quit the Tories. It's staggering that it takes a man to have a brush with death to break the Tory stranglehold, but that's what seems to have happened with Boles. And maybe, just maybe he will now link Common Market 2.0 with a People's Vote and both can make progress together. It would be better than No Deal.
Second, with a three hour political cabinet this morning anything might happen to the Tories. With this political Cabinet meeting having to then follow on with a two hour Cabinet proper meeting the chance of fights breaking out is very high. We can hope a lot do not make it to the end as ministers. Even more than ever open warfare amongst the Tories can only help make clear just how hopeless their management of Brexit has been. As importantly, it will increase the chance of compromise being reached in the Commons.
Third, Labour might just realise it has to work with the SNP in the national jnterest. But I really will not hold my breath on that.
Fourth, the Speaker may allow more sensible voting procedures on Wednesday to permit a solution to be found. Transferable voting is surely not beyond the wit of this parliament?
Fifth, maybe, just maybe the EU will remain tolerant of our stupidity.
And sixth, heaven knows, if we could try Common Market 2.0 and a second referendum we might just reach a solution that could then be taken back to the EU for renegotiation.
Saying which, I know this will not appease those who wish we crash out. And I do know that they have grievances galore, many of which I share with regard to unjust treatment. But sometimes, it has to be said, making things worse is not a solution. Because that is what No Deal will do, in every conceivable way. And I think it my right to say so, and to argue that realising this is democracy in action.
But let's be clear: democracy as we have known it is on its last legs, however you look at it. And that more than justified my language on Twitter last night.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
You hit the nail on the head “too many MPs are standing out for unicorns”..could you imagine a deal being agreed ahead of Article 50?? Another unicorn I think. Labour’s mindset is to be as intransigent as possible to force a general election. It might backfire on them. The electorate I think will respond more favourably if they genuinely set out to try and sort out the mess.
These debates in the HOC should have been happening two years ago. The democratic failure was of Theresa May failing to get a majority and turning to the DUP for support rather than seeking cross party discussions. The fault is 100% May’s.
@ Rod White.
Lots of commentators make plaintive appeals for sympathy for Theresa May in her predicament.
Bollox to that, I say.
This mess may have been started by David Cameron but she has compounded the problems entirely by her own efforts. Not one iota of sympathy for her from this quarter.
I agree with you.
May has made a complete mess of this – she has been a self-authored disaster.
Never mind ‘Prime Minister’ more like ‘sub-Prime’ if you ask me.
Exactly – there should have been some cross-party consensus building before the Article 50 notification, so we had a better idea of what we wanted before the two year process was up. That said, I can see why a majority party in government might think it could do whatever it wants. But certainly , as soon as the 2017 election returned a minority government, it became essential to build a coalition supporting definite proposals. The failure to grip the issue then, for fear of widening cracks in the Tory party, has led us inexorably to where we are now.
Arguably the EU was in a worse structural position, trying to corral 27 different sovereign states with different interests and opinions, which is why they know how to do this. They had an early and frank discussion to agree a negotiating strategy to which everyone signed up (which was published! so much for keeping your powder dry, and not showing your hand), and they stuck to it.
So here we are, creeping slowly towards the end of the cliff. There will be enough blame for everyone to share when it all goes horribly wrong.
I’m not a student of Game Theory but … according to Leonid Bershidsky’s analysis, before all the recent shenanigans (30 January), a no-deal was the most likely outcome – https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-30/theresa-may-s-brexit-gambit-is-a-loser-says-game-theory.
On 8th February Petros Sekeris, in the New Scientist, suggests it’s now ‘all about avoiding blame’ – https://www.newscientist.com/article/2193345-game-theory-says-brexit-negotiations-are-now-all-about-avoiding-blame.
Finally a neat YouTube presentation which reaches pretty much the same conclusion – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHiT9VPkgUY.
Make of it what you will but Game Theory does seem to confirm it’s all going to end in tears. Interesting but not what I want to hear. Definitely time for a double caffè corretto.
@John D – That is my conclusion as well, and following on from that what do we do now? There are in all probability a majority favouring a remain option but all of us – 100% – will be forced out of the EU by a minority. This is not going to be pretty especially as the background to the ref and the disgraceful behavior of many people in authority.
So what do we do now? My first thoughts are to point out how the MSM has let us all down (feeding outrageous lies for years on end to their readers, people who in all probability do not use the internet), the BBC who have been captured by the Tory establishment (many background tweets on that). I am not going to take this lying down, writing to my MP (Chope of all people!) is not going to change anything, the folk round here looking at the last local elections put UKIP in (close) runner up position so no chance of finding and like minded souls around here.
Mild proposal I know but withhold the licence fee? If enough people (like 16 million!) did that it would seriously hurt.
I’m will join you with the fortified coffee as well John!
“But Labour failed to back the Joanna Cherry amendment last night that attempted to block No Deal, making it all the more likely as a result. That was unforgivable.”
Absolutely agree. Pure unadulterated pettiness. Yet more shame on a Labour Party with no sense of direction and no cohesion….and no political nous !
Too many arses fit only to polish green leather benches. 🙁 Not all of them; but too many of them.
Someone’s been busy trying to find a solution, albeit 24 hours too late!
https://dutchreview.com/news/international/scotland-netherlands-reach-brexit-agreement-annexation/
Yes……..
Of course
On 1 April
Hard to see a way out of this. My hope last night was for a confirmatory vote. I initially felt some encouragement by a narrowish defeat – 280 for and 292 against: if we can only persuade the abstainers to come on board. However, I’ve looked at the breakdown of the vote and particularly those who abstained:
Conservative MPs from Leave constituencies – 25
Con MPs from Remain – 21
Labour MPs from Leave – 16
Labour MPs from Remain – 2
Ind MP from Leave – 1
SNP MPs from Remain – 4
SinnFein and Speaker – 8
(NB: Some Con-Remain MPs include Liam Fox and Chris Grayling, i.e. arch-Leavers).
Even if ALL MPs had voted on the issue (bar the non-voting 8), ‘Confirmatory’ would have been beaten by something like 336-306.
The Revoke vote was worse. 191 for and 292 against is bad enough, but the breakdown shows:
Con MPs from Leave – 26
Con MPs from Remain – 18
Labour MPs from Leave – 90
Labour MPs from Remain – 16
Other MPs from Leave – 4
Other MPs from Remain – 4
Again, even if ALL MPs had voted and Labour MPs had whipped FOR the motion, its the high watermark would have been around 290, with 362 against.
This has depressed me. I’m not sure either would get chosen again on their own since they cannot win a majority. ‘Confirmatory’ would only be considered again if combined with something like May’s deal (which is a marginal likelihood at best) or with May plus (‘a’ or ‘the’) Customs Union which May won’t accept. The last chance for Revoke could be Yvette Cooper’s bill she announced today.
I’m pulling my hair out. I’ll be bald by Friday…
I’m spending the day feeling mildly nauseous
Thanks for this
Slight correction three quarters of the way down, 352 not 362, so:
“Again, even if ALL MPs had voted and Labour MPs had whipped FOR the motion, its the high watermark would have been around 290, with 352 against.”
With a very heavy heart, Richard, I agree. We are very, very close indeed to disaster. Matthew Paris – not normally my chosen lodestar of sense – had an excellent article recently pointing out that anyone sane should be voting for any sort of motion as long as it has a public vote tied to it. Yet even this modicum of sense seems to have departed just enough of the body of MPs for them to be hustling us ever closer to the edge.
The Labour Party’s part in the last set of voting has been shameful beyond expression. Failure to discipline Brexiteers combined with ‘unicornitis’ and anti-SNP prejudice has produced a betrayal of the economic, social and, yes, cultural, life interests of the ordinary folk for whom they are supposed to stand. And in the name of what? An adolescent combination of Corbyn and clique’s doctrinaire prejudices and a greed – not too strong a word in the circs. – for ministerial power. They join their Conservative opponents in callous disregard of our common interests – and when an election comes, why do either of these tawdry juggernauts imagine that anyone will vote for them – let alone believe a word they say? The electoral choices – indeed the very purposes of electoral democracy in South Britain – seem now little more than chaff.
Hugely dismaying posts on the Guardian Politics Live blog suggest that Letwin is giving up on indicative votes for an emergency ‘Yvette Cooper’ Bill which seeks to find a compulsory vote to ban a No Deal ending. Even if that gets through the Commons’ procedures, Breximaniacs in the Lords could delay it and thus ensure we topple over the cliff. Meanwhile, it also reports that May is said to have entered the Political Cabinet meeting with an intention to favour ‘No Deal’ if faced with an attempt to revoke Article 50 – the Messianic Gotterdamerung with which I have long suspected she is in vengeful love.
I fear that I do swear – and, currently, mightily and often. I don’t pray… but I’m not sure what else is left… ?
(P.S. Irrelevantly, but I don’t know how to PM you, if you find comfort, comic or biting, in the exploitation of classic verse, you might find some in my website on the miseries of Blair and Bush, of which I know your blog has a record.)
I will visit your site
And thanks
Agreed to all of that, unfortunately.
Currently with my head out of sandpit, on a ferry back to UK. Should I turn back or get back in sandpit?
I see the English coast approaching and the Channel waters look appealing. Swearing is all we have left.
Don’t jump!
I am a proud died in the wool remainer. And I am now hoping for No Deal, CXrashing Out, and an attempt at WTO trading arrangements. Why? I liken the situation to having a child desperate to smoke cigarettes. Paren keeps saying NO “You will be very sick”. Child wants to, more and more. Whining and nagging and throwing tantrums and stamping feet- “I want-I want-I want”.. Impasse. But finally, parent buys a pack and gives them to child. “There you are. Here’s what you want. Smoke away. See how you like it.” And child puffs away, coughs, splutters, tears to eyes, and pewks up everywhere. Lesson learned. Never smokes again. A bit simplistic perhaps. But I am coming round to the view that a close relationship with the EU will never be acceptable to the Breiteers and to a high % of the 17 million. They want total withdrawal, WTO, complete severance, the full Monty. And they won’t be satisfied until they get it. So let them have it. Let them experience the chaos. Let there be disorder and suffering, and the mockery of the rest of the world. Let the UK shatter and let the economy sink into the swamp. Let the British “Constitution” reveal in full its total inadequacy and unfitness for the modern world. Then maybe, a younger generation, free of the drug of ancient myths of Empire on which Sun Never Sets and Dunkirk and Finest Hour and the Fifth Largest Economy on World, will recognise the unwisdom of separation from the European family and isolation in a cold cruel world prey to scavenging USA and China, and decide it wants to return home like the Prodigal Son who when he got so hungry in the big city, snatched swill from the pigs and remebered the home he had left. So yes, bored by Brexit and pissed off by the forever whining and grumbling of the stupid Brexiting infants, I am a remainer all for embracing No Deal.
There is an element in me that understands this
But it blights the rest of my life
And much if the working lives of my children
Can I really be relaxed about that?
Only if they have the wit to see a way through it, and some will, because they always do
I can but hope
To be honest, I don’t really want a No Deal just to teach the Brexit nutters a lesson. But there is a part of me that does want them to find out that a hard Brexit is disastrous, ludicrous, and a betrayal. I want them to understand and to be forced to acknowledge what damage they have done and are going to do to this country, to our society, and indeed to our European friends and partners. I am going on an educational visit to Brussels, to the various bodies and instiutions of the EU, with a party of students from a British university, and I am very conscious of the destructive effect of Brexit on their futures. Most young people in the UK – c90% according to polls – are anti Brexit and see Britain’s membership of the EU as an economic and political essential, and importantly, as a moral issue. Their future is being betrayed by the Brexit elite. Perhaps there really is a parallell universe, and there Brexit is being enacted and Rees Mogg and Johnson and IDS and all the other tawdry shabby ideologues succeed in ruining this country and the futures of its younger generations, and then are confronted, like Adolf Hitler in the bunker in Berlin, with the consequences of their actions and the bitter truth of their pigheaded stupidity. And meanwhile, I can hope that in this universe, the worst laid plans of Rees Mogg and other men will come to nought.
And following on from alluding to Burns’s poem, why is not more being made of Mrs May’s reaching out to Mr Corbyn and Labour, but excluding the other significant opposition party, the SNP representing a country that voted two thirds for remain in the referendum?
Well…. or rather NOT. May’s speech is, in the light of a 7 hour cabinet, most of it political without civil servants present, the most insignificant mouse – but alas, one whose repetitive ‘roar’ will finally bring the UK house down.
What on earth has taken them 7 hours to concede – for there is clearly no way that this craven group of ministers has actually decided anything – so very, very little. It comes to this. Labour must help get “the” withdrawal agreement passed, jointly (the arrogance is still breath-catching) OR the House must agree to some of the possible tweaks to the Political Declaration, all of which will be presented by the same government which has failed at every step AND the EU must (she didn’t say “must”, but it is what she means) give a short extension so that (i.e. they are supposed to believe this is a certainty) “we” can leave the EU on the 22 May… and thus we won’t “need” to take part in the European elections.
She is clearly mad, deaf or both, as Macron and others at the EU have said over and over again, including this very afternoon, that taking part in the European Elections is THE prerequisite for an extension. She also said, mendaciously, that she had “always said that we could make a success of a No Deal Brexit”. This is very clearly – to me, if not to the rabbits in her Cabinet – exactly where we are going. The EU will not wear this – and rightly. How could they have any confidence that she’ll get her withdrawal agreement through in time for 22 May? Evidence? There is none.
So May has decided on the route of a bitter vengeance on the people – us – who have not proved worthy of her. This is the substance of all my fears – and I now cannot see any route, short of an electoral miracle, to avoid it, .
John D earlier said that this was now ‘all about avoiding blame’ – which would appear to be what the cabinet are looking for- or at least ensuring that Labour is just as embroiled in the blame.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-theresa-may-vote-cabinet-civil-service-mark-sedwill-a8850531.html
Leaked account of the Cabinet Secretary’s briefing to the cabinet.
Should not, we the people, also have that briefing?
So now we move on to the Theresa and Jeremy Show. Something for ‘everyone’ there!
I’m reminded of a saying of an old American friend – “Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on what”s for dinner”.
I swore a lot recently about swearing not to talk about BREXIT anymore!!
I can’t believe what happened last night (I was in Swindon at an exhibition on modular homes).
I have just seen the most arrogant of Tory MPs interviewed on Channel 4 News – Anne Marie Morris (an ex lawyer) – declare that even though BREXIT did not say No Deal, Remain did not set out the conditions for staying in either – so there!! Oh – what erudition? What lawyerly insight!! What intellectual argument your Honour!!?
Oh – so that’s OK then?
I mean honestly?!! HONESTLY!! It’s Morris and her fellow ERG goblins who inhabit the bloody woodpile.
(Yvette Cooper came across so well tonight, she should receive a Sainthood from the People. And I agree that Labour are being pushed into a blame situation – why else not invite the SNP and Greens along too? All the opposition should be there for Christ sake).
I am not so sure about Yvette……
Not much logic to her Bill today
Agreed about Cooper – but her attitude was more conciliatory (but also resigned in a way).
But I preferred that attitude to that of Morris’ ugly affirmation that since the sort of BREXIT was not made clear (she obviously hasn’t seen the likes of people like Hannan saying that it DID NOT mean the end customs union) , she and her motley ERG crew were still going to insist that it was hard No Deal and nothing else.
That sense of insistence – of God like entitlement over interpretation even – was the most nauseating thing I saw all night to be honest. The flared nostrils, haughty air and non-seeing steely gaze of a maniac Richard – that is what I saw.
Morris was revolting – I saw it
Why aren’t you critical of Caroline & the Lib Dems for not being prepared to compromise? Surely the main point of the indicative voting process was symbolic – to show the people and May there was a Commons majority for something softer than May’s Deal that might eventually end up as a PV option?
I think Ian Dunt summarises things well https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/04/01/circular-firing-squad-puritanism-sees-remainers-and-soft-bre
Merely because of scale
I have to say that upon reading Dunt’s piece it makes many valid points. But the point he does not seem to make is what I gleen from his piece is that there is a real sense of PANIC coming across – not necessarily deliberate unicorn chasing. Parliament is grasping at too many things on the way down. They are completely snowed in my view. They cannot see the wood for the trees.
And this feeling of panic is bad enough!
I think you are right
Panic it is….
I should like to know why media interviewers do not counter the annoying use of “The Will of the People”. (Slightly over half – in 2016) I scream at the television each time I hear it. Why are the politicians not asked how they know the current “will”? Why are they not asked if they are concerned that they may now be dictating that the people have something which might be contrary to the People’s will? Has this subject been discussed in Cabinet – and if not why not? Does the Cabinet fear that loss of face for wasting 3 years of parliaments time mean that a second People’s vote must be absolutely blocked in case it might just show that?
I too have that urge to scream
Their will is not mine
I totally agree.
I offer this instructive piece from Paul Spicker:
http://blog.spicker.uk/the-will-of-the-majority-is-not-a-democratic-principle/
I wonder if Anne Marie Morris might be interested? Spicker’s definition polarises the nature of this Tory Government very effectively.
I share your annoyance in this.
The EU Referendum of 2016 was the biggest democratic vote in the UK’s history and the 17.41M (51.89%) was the biggest single vote for a single thing, i.e. Leave. I’d love to say that Remain was the second largest vote ever at 16.14M (48.11%), but it was actually third (I’ll PS that at the end in case you want a few minutes to guess). However, this will of the people shtick is propaganda.
Even if you set aside the fraud and the lies and the broken promises of Leave, the vote was extraordinarily close – close enough that if it had been the other way around that we know Farage would still be campaigning for a 2nd go. Referenda are not normal in this country – there have only ever been three that were nation-wide.
If politicians are genuine about healing the divide in the country after such a close vote and all of this being over then by logic there are only two options of where we go from now:
1) If you accept that we must Brexit then it must be the softest possible Brexit – single market, customs union, etc. to respect some of the wishes of the Remain voters by compromise.
2) If you want a harder Brexit, then this must be spelled out precisely what is meant by that and it has to go to a confirmatory vote against Remain, and whatever way we wish that to go, we must live with the result. (I would be concerned, however, if Remain won by a margin of less than 52% – perhaps even 55%!).
stemfr
PS – The 1975 EC confirmation Referendum where 17.38M voted to stay.
Shall we stop this nonsense about biggest votes?
It has been well documented that this is not true and when you make a false claim I stop reading the rest
It’s a shame you stopped reading as I think you would have fundamentally agreed with what I had said. Never mind…
@stemfr
Just because the vote was in favour of leaving the EU doesn’t make that a practical option.
If the Brexit case for a civilised and practical separation was made would a massive number of people be opposing it? Probably not. We’d be making another nice cup of Rosie Leigh and keeping calm and carrying on.
Has a practical proposal been presented modified, agreed by negotiation ? No it hasn’t. There is no acceptable way of making the Brexit separation which is going to be harmonious, so we need to go about it differently.
The only sensible option at the present stage in the proceedings is to say we tried (sort of – what a fucking embarrassment ..!!) and we failed miserably to fulfil ‘the will of the people’ we’ll start again and do it properly.
Revoke Article 50. And then let’s sort things out sensibly and practicably. Starting with a voting system for general elections which allows people a positive choice for what they want , rather than voting against what they don’t. We have two broad church establishment parties and they are both past their sell-by dates. Tories belong firmly in the 19th century and Labour are locked somewhere way back in the 20th.
First past the post got us into this mess and we a need a better voting system to get us out of it.
In the meantime we can avoid a lot of hassle by going back to where we were in respect of EU membership at least for the time being and trying to mend some bridges. Both at home and abroad.
If anyone amongst our parliamentary members thinks they have to save face, I’d suggest that it is far too late for that. They’ve blown it. All credibility is lost. We know who they are and if they get re-elected it’s because their electors are stupid or because they did the right thing. Who stands and who falls will determine the way forward.
Stemfr
Whether biggest vote or not, it should never be the case that those who ‘lose’ the vote should just be totally negated as the No Deal hard BREXIT presents.
What is democratic about that. See Paul Spickers’s blog about this above if you will.
You cannot possibly have read my comment if that is your response to it. My argument is that regardless of the size of the vote that Leave achieved, the closeness of the vote means that Brexit must be very soft or confirmed if hard (er). I despair of people who respond to comments without reading them! What is the point?
I think you have to accept that the framing of your comment ( which was incorrect) did not help here
Your sentiment was sound
We all sometimes get the balance wrong
Don’t get dismayed – I stress, we all do it
“We’re fucked. No deal here we come” ???? Uh huh!
We cannot have ‘No Deal’. It’s practically, logically impossible. There have to be arrangements…those arrangements ARE the deal.
No deal is as fantastical a proposition as Brexit was in the first place.
Who is in charge of this bloody asylum. ??
The only form of no deal that makes any sense is to revoke Article 50. Because there is no agreeable Brexit settlement deal. Somebody remind me what the ‘P’,’P’&’E’ stand for in PPE….. all these courses should have their funding stopped forthwith. Fucking waste of time and public subsidy !
Made me smile. Too few practical problem solvers in parliament IMO. Too many politicos with only a problem solving hammer making every problem look like a nail. They need a wide range of problem solving techniques like engineers have.